March Madness Sweet 16: Best bets for the South Region semis

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This year's NCAA Tournament has nicely mixed in some early-round upsets. It has shed light on smaller schools while also having teams with no chance to win the title exit gracefully so that Friday's Sweet 16 matchups are just as compelling as Thursday's games in the East and West regionals. Matt Russell and Sam Oshtry continue their dual-threat handicaps with the South Regional semifinals.

(11) North Carolina State vs. (2) Marquette (-6.5, 151)

Matt's best bet: Marquette (-6.5)

When the ACC Tournament champion is your lone double-digit seed, you don't have a true Cinderella story. NC State has shown it can tap into its collective talent to get hot. However, there's reason to believe its run is coming to an end.

The Wolfpack's rating has been on the move, as they're considered three points better relative to the market than they were just two weeks ago. Whether or not their highly ranked local rivals were desperate to win the ACC Tournament, topping Duke and North Carolina on their miracle five-day run showed impressive will, but beating banged-up Texas Tech and edging Oakland in overtime awards them only so much credit. Meanwhile, figuring out how Marquette should be rated now that Tyler Kolek appears 100% healthy is challenging.

Given the Golden Eagles' metrics took a hit without their star point guard, they may still be underrated in the market. A 6.5-point spread is fair now, but had this game been played in mid-February - before the Wolfpack's run and Kolek's injury - this line would be much higher. Regression should be right around the corner, which is a bad thing for NC State. But for Marquette, it may be very good.

Sam's best bet: Marquette team total: Over 79.5 points

I'm in lockstep with Matt here. NC State has been an awesome story, and its DJ duo - DJ Burns and DJ Horne - has been hitting all the right beats, but this is where the journey ends.

Marquette is an elite offensive unit with Kolek healthy and playing at an All-American level. Despite their run, the Wolfpack's defense still ranks 75th in the country, per KenPom. Although I love Marquette in this spot, the team total is the safer play to me.

Marquette has scored at least 80 points in both tournament games and eight of its last 10 contests with Kolek playing. Marquette should score at will against NC State.

(4) Duke vs. (1) Houston (-4, 134)

Sam's best bet: Houston (-4)

I've wavered back and forth quite a bit on this game. I know how prolific Duke's offense can be when it's clicking. The Blue Devils steamrolled James Madison by 38 points while shooting 50% from three on Sunday.

Houston's defense is a different breed. It's the nation's second-best, per KenPom, and its strength is forcing opponents into difficult, inefficient shots. Duke loves to shoot threes, typically making them at a high rate. However, Houston is elite at defending the three.

All of those threes that Duke guards Jared McCain, Tyrese Proctor, and Jeremy Roach shot against James Madison - a combined 23 attempts - will be contested looks against Houston.

The Cougars defend the rim as well as anyone in the country. They're known for their defensive tenacity, but their offense isn't too far behind. They have the edge at guard play with LJ Cryer, Jamal Shead, and Emanuel Sharp.

Houston's free-throw shooting worries me, but even in an overtime dogfight in the Round of 32 with four players fouled out, the Cougars outlasted Texas A&M by five. This is a more experienced Duke team than the one a year ago, but Houston can still fluster it enough to cover the number.

Matt's best bet: Duke (+4)

The standard take is that Houston will bully Duke into submission, just as Tennessee did last year after an early hard foul from Uros Plavsic set an inescapable tone. Dereck Lively didn't take a shot in 36 minutes, and Kyle Filipowski drifted out beyond the arc, missing all five of his 3-point attempts.

Let's at least hypothesize that the team learned something from a year ago, with Filipowski a year older and the Blue Devils deeper than the group that totaled only 22 total bench minutes in its final game last season. Moreover, Duke had a KenPom offensive efficiency rating that was 40th in the nation. It's easier to be bullied when you struggle to score relative to top competition. This year's Blue Devils (fifth in AdjO) don't have that problem.

J'Wan Roberts doesn't appear 100%, and the Cougars couldn't stop fouling against Texas A&M's dribble penetration, so I'm not willing to lay the points. Given Duke's 5% improvement in 3-point shooting year over year, the Blue Devils are live to pull off the upset, especially if the whistle goes their way.

Find Matt and Sam's take on the Midwest Region here.