Grading the Red Sox-Braves trade involving Sale, Grissom

The Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves pulled off one of the bigger deals of the offseason Saturday, with left-hander Chris Sale and infielder Vaughn Grissom switching sides. Here, we break down and grade the trade for both teams.

Red Sox: A

The Red Sox brought in chief baseball officer Craig Breslow to reshape the roster, and he's done just that in his early tenure with a trio of December trades. While it may not exactly be full throttle just yet, things seem to be ramping up around Fenway Park. Breslow made a pretty big statement earlier in the month by sending mercurial outfielder Alex Verdugo to the rival New York Yankees. But moving off Sale shows that Breslow isn't afraid to get aggressive and put his stamp on the team.

Boston acquired Sale from the Chicago White Sox in December 2016 for Yoán Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe, and Victor Diaz, and he was the ace the Red Sox needed in the first half of his seven-season tenure with the club. Sale posted a 3.08 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 13.2 K/9 across 519 2/3 innings over his first three years in Beantown, finishing second (2017) and fourth (2018) in AL Cy Young voting while also helping the team win the 2018 World Series.

A combination of a lot of bad luck and Sale's body betraying him over the last four years spoiled what was a really good match. His violent delivery finally caught up with him after signing a five-year, $145-million extension in March 2019 that covered the 2020-24 seasons. Sale underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020. He missed time in 2022 with a rib stress fracture suffered while throwing batting practice. Sale missed additional time over the last two seasons with a finger fracture sustained after being hit by a line drive. Weeks later, he broke his wrist from falling off his bicycle. Midway through last season, Sale suffered a stress reaction in his shoulder that sidelined him for over two months.

Everything that could go wrong went wrong, and even more on top of that.

The good news for the Braves is that Sale is coming off a season in which he threw 102 2/3 innings - his highest workload since 2019. Also, he came back strong after missing time with that shoulder injury. For the Red Sox, they just couldn't head into the 2024 campaign locked into a pitcher with that much risk, especially after spending the 2023 season desperately searching for starters to give them innings. Boston ranked 27th in innings pitched from its rotation last season, with Brayan Bello the only starter throwing more than 150 innings. That resulted in the bullpen being significantly overworked, causing the team to fizzle out in the season's final months.

Sale's departure comes a day after the Red Sox reportedly signed Lucas Giolito to a two-year, $38.5-million contract. The 29-year-old is coming off a down season in which he posted a 4.88 ERA and surrendered an AL-worst 41 home runs. However, Giolito made a career-high 33 starts and threw 184 1/3 innings. He'll take Sale's place in the rotation, but Boston still needs to add multiple starting pitchers through free agency or trade. With Breslow's pitching background and the addition of new pitching coach Andrew Bailey, it appears the club believes it can correct Giolito's issues from last campaign. At the very least, it's banking on him being an innings eater.

Sale's strong finish to 2023 allowed the Red Sox to recoup some value on what appeared to be a diminished asset at points early last season. Grissom will have the opportunity to win the second base job - a position that has been a revolving door since Dustin Pedroia's departure. Christian Arroyo, Luis Urías, and Emmanuel Valdez all split time at second for Boston last campaign. Valdez is the only one of the three who remains in the organization, and he could serve in more of a utility role moving forward or be used in a trade.

Grissom was the Braves' No. 7 prospect heading into 2022. He hit .287/.339/.407 with five home runs, nine doubles, and five stolen bases over 64 MLB games in two seasons, striking out in 22.6% of his at-bats. Grissom spent the bulk of 2023 with Triple-A Gwinnett, slashing .330/.419/.501 with eight home runs, 36 doubles, and 13 stolen bases. He grades as a better defender at second base than at shortstop, with solid contact skills and average power. Four of his five career MLB home runs have come from the pull side, and he should benefit from playing at Fenway Park, where he hit his first homer.

The Red Sox addressing their need at second base with Grissom makes a lot more sense when looking at the free-agent market. Whit Merrifield and Adam Frazier don't offer the same ceiling as Grissom and cost a lot more. Grissom, 22, is still pre-arb and making the minimum in 2024, allowing the team to use financial resources elsewhere.

Boston retained $17 million of Sale's $27.5-million salary in 2024, allowing them to get a player who projects as highly as Grissom in return. The Red Sox should be operating this way, using their financial power to improve the team. Their projected 40-man payroll sits around $193 million, according to FanGraphs, leaving them roughly $44 million under the first luxury-tax threshold. Breslow said adding pitching is the priority, and there are a lot of dependable starters from the free-agent group of Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, Shota Imanaga, James Paxton, and Marcus Stroman still on the market. Of that group, only Snell is attached to draft compensation. If the team doesn't like those prices, it could pivot to trades.

The Red Sox built a strong core of minor-league position players under former CBO Chaim Bloom. The organization's top eight prospects, per MLB Pipeline, are all position players, with Marcelo Mayer (No. 1), Nick Yorke (6), Mikey Romero (7), and Nazzan Zanetello (8) all middle infielders. That gives Breslow a number of potential pieces to build an attractive package for a controllable arm like Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo, or others. Also, Breslow having no attachment to any of these prospects may make him more willing to ship them away.

Trading a player like Sale will be a major shock to the Red Sox clubhouse. But after back-to-back last-place finishes, it's a shock the team needs.

Braves: A-

Sale's durability concerns were too much for the Red Sox, but it makes a lot of sense why the Braves would roll the dice on him. Atlanta has a much deeper rotation and can slot Sale in as its No. 4 starter. That should take some pressure off Sale while the club banks on his high ceiling at a relatively minor cost; the Braves owe Sale just $10 million in 2024 and hold a $20-million option for 2025.

Projected 2024 rotation (2023 stats)

Sale already underwent Tommy John surgery, so the hope is that the worst of his injuries are behind him. Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos acknowledged the durability concerns but said the team has a plan to keep him healthy.

"There's health history, and I understand that's going to be a topic," Anthopoulos said, according to MLB.com. "But we think he's a playoff-caliber starter, and that's what we were in the market for this offseason. We'll make sure to do what we can to keep him on the mound."

Sale's appeared in 10 career playoff games (seven starts), posting a 6.35 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts over 34 innings. It's not uncommon for star pitchers to have inflated postseason numbers. Sale hasn't pitched in the playoffs since 2021 but authored a 3.38 ERA over eight innings in that ALCS against the Houston Astros. He also secured the final out in relief in the 2018 World Series.

Sale's experience, ceiling, and leadership are likely qualities Anthopoulos wanted to bring into the clubhouse following a disappointing early 2023 playoff exit. Even when Sale wasn't pitching, he was always accountable. He hated being hurt and understood it was unacceptable for someone making his salary to miss so much time. That should fit well in a clubhouse in its World Series window.

Sale agreed to waive his no-trade clause to go to Atlanta. The 34-year-old likely realizes his opportunity to win another championship is running out. He gets to join an organization much closer to his home in Florida and work with a team that's done a great job getting the most out of its pitchers.

While there were some rough patches for Sale coming off such a long injury layoff (8.00 ERA over his first four starts in 2023), he showed signs of his former dominance last season. He posted a 3.92 ERA over his final nine starts after returning from the shoulder injury, striking out 54 over 43 2/3 innings.

Sale's been forced to reinvent himself in recent years. He can no longer overpower hitters with his fastball, which averaged 93.9 mph last season. He upped his slider usage in 2023 to combat the decreased velocity, throwing it 37.5% of the time while leaning less on his changeup and sinker. Batters slugged just .358 off his slider compared to .464 off his changeup and .517 off his sinker. Sale wasn't always the dominant strikeout pitcher at times last campaign, but he managed to be an effective pitcher.

Dealing Grissom can be viewed as a high price for the Braves, but there was limited playing time for him in Atlanta - especially if the club doesn't see him as an everyday option at shortstop. Grissom was projected to platoon with Jarred Kelenic in left field to open the season, but that would have likely stunted his development due to the limited at-bats. Instead, the Braves landed a starting pitcher at a minimal salary - especially with the going rate for arms this winter. Frankie Montas reportedly signed a one-year, $16-million contract with the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday after the right-hander threw just 1 1/3 innings last season, further demonstrating why Sale is worth the risk if he can stay on the mound.

Anthopoulos has been one of the most active executives this winter, so now expect him to address his bench.