The Players Championship betting: Trying to tame TPC Sawgrass

TPC Sawgrass provides a particular challenge for bettors beyond the infamous par-3 island green. In 2020, the tournament was wiped out completely, and wild weather patterns took half the field and metaphorically blew them into the Stadium Course's lake like a poorly struck wedge on the 17th tee box. That leaves 2021 as the one relatively recent data point for The Players Championship.

Three draws (odds to win/top 20)

Three golfers more valuable than their odds suggest this week:

Scottie Scheffler (+1100 / -130)

We narrowly missed a winner with one of the favorites last week when Rory McIlroy finished one stroke behind *checks notes* ... Kurt Kitayama. Between a relative unknown taking the big check from the game's best to Jon Rahm going from nearly even-money favorite after the first round to nonfactor in 24-36 hours, we saw two great examples of why we try to avoid the top of the oddsboard.

With Scheffler, though, there's reliability you don't get with others. He's finished first, 15th, and second in his last three tournaments in strokes gained: tee to green.

He was caught on the bad side of the draw last year and shot 76 in the second round. He still managed to make the cut but wasn't in contention. It was just his first time playing The Players, but on what's considered a second-shot golf course, betting on someone who's been atop the competition in getting the ball near the hole from tee to green is generally wise.

Viktor Hovland (+2800 / +130)

The Players has long been the biggest tournament that a burgeoning star wins before they claim a major, so call it a hunch that Hovland wins here before he closes out one of the sport's four biggest tournaments. Of course, it helps that Hovland led last year's event in strokes gained: tee to green while the winner made up almost all his strokes with the putter, and the defending champion is nowhere to be found this year.

Keegan Bradley (+5000 / +220)

Bradley sat right behind Hovland last year in strokes gained: tee to green. In the last four Players Championships completed, Bradley has placed no worse than T29 with three top-20 finishes. Bradley also has top-20s in three of his last four tournaments this season, with the one missed cut being at Riviera where he hasn't had the same recent success he's enjoyed at TPC Sawgrass.

The scary fade

When you least expect it, you mega-slice a tee shot into the trees. We pick a golfer with high expectations who's worth betting to miss the cut at a big price.

Hideki Matsuyama (+125)

When COVID-19 struck midway through the 2020 Players Championship, Matsuyama was the leader. The next year, he was the hot pick in Ponte Vedra only to miss the cut thanks to an opening round 76; a month later, he'd win The Masters. The point is that this course can jump up and get you when you least expect it.

It might not be as unexpected this week though, as Matsuyama has missed the cut in his last two events - the Genesis Invitational and last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational. According to Data Golf, Matsuyama's moving average for his strokes gained: approach has slowly dropped over his last 100 rounds, which is probably why he's dipped to near even money to miss the weekend. Even still, it's worth a bet.

The favorite club in the bag

Going into this betting season, we picked two golfers to bet to win each week: Max Homa and Tom Kim. The thinking is that our second-tier duo on the oddsboard will win more than once and be profitable on the assumption they play 20-25 events. It took one week for that to pay dividends, as Homa won at Torrey Pines at 20-1, and he almost added a second win at Riviera.

Are Max and Tom playing this week?

Of course! The strongest field of the year includes Homa at 20-1, but we already know he can play with anyone. Another quiet top-20 at Bay Hill last week showed he's not just all about California golf. Strangely, one of the most impressive tournaments of his career was The Players last year when, despite getting caught on the wrong side of the draw weather-wise, he finished T13 with a final-round 66.

Ideally, we'd rather have someone with a little more experience at Sawgrass, but Si Woo Kim won in his second try as recently as 2017. At 40-1, Tom Kim has Joe Skovron on his bag, who was Rickie Fowler's caddy in 2014 when Fowler got the biggest win of his career; that could make up for the inexperience here.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.