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Full betting preview, picks for the Waste Management Phoenix Open

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The PGA Tour is in Scottsdale, Arizona this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Known for the rowdy fans that flood TPC Scottsdale by the thousands, the tournament is the perfect appetizer for sports fans on Superbowl Sunday.

The field is surprisingly loaded this week, with defending champion Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele headlining the 156-man group competing in the desert.

The course

TPC Scottsdale

  • 7,261 yards, par 71
  • Bermuda grass greens
  • All three par 5s under 560 yards
  • Forgiving off the tee, strong iron play required

Previous Winners

2019: Rickie Fowler (-17)
2018: Gary Woodland (-18)
2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17)
2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14)
2015: Brooks Koepka (-15)
2014: Kevin Stadler (-16)
2013: Phil Mickelson (-28)

The favorites

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Player Odds Best finish in Phoenix
Jon Rahm 13-2 T5 (2015)
Justin Thomas 9-1 3rd (2019)
Webb Simpson 14-1 2nd (2017)
Hideki Matusyama 16-1 1st ('17 & '16)
Rickie Fowler 16-1 1st (2019)
Xander Schauffele 18-1 T10 (2019)

This is one of those rare weeks on the PGA Tour where it seems the favorites check all the boxes you're looking for when betting on a golfer. They're all playing well and they've all had strong showings at TPC Scottsdale. Basically, it's a tough week to handicap the field.

Jon Rahm (13-2) and Justin Thomas (9-1) enter as the top dogs in the field. No one would, or at least should, argue that either of them can't win this week. From a betting perspective, their odds aren't significant enough to present worthwhile investment value.

The next four players are all very intriguing. Webb Simpson (14-1) lost in a playoff at TPC Scottsdale in 2017 and has back-to-back top-three results in full-field events. Hideki Matsuyama (16-1) has dominated this event with two wins, and a second- and fourth-place showing over the last six years. Rickie Fowler (16-1) is the defending champion with four straight top-11 performances in the desert. And Xander Schauffele (18-1) is a world-class talent who came T-10 at the Phoenix Open last year.

If forced to choose from the top, Matsuyama would be the play at 16-1. This tournament has proven to be very lucrative for the 27-year-old throughout his career and 2020 should be no different.

The next tier

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Player Odds Best finish in Phoenix
Bryson DeChambeau 28-1 T5 (2018)
Bubba Watson 28-1 T2 ('15 & '14)
Gary Woodland 28-1 1st (2018)
Matt Kuchar 28-1 T4 (2019)
Tony Finau 28-1 T22 (2015)
Brandt Snedeker 33-1 2nd (2013)
Collin Morikawa 33-1 N/A
Sungjae Im 33-1 T7 (2019)
Branden Grace 40-1 2nd (2019) 

Once again, this range is littered with quality players who have succeeded at TPC Scottsdale in the past and are playing quite well heading into this week.

Bubba Watson (28-1) is of interest after leading the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green at Torrey Pines. TPC Scottsdale is also a course Watson plays very well at, even though he's yet to find the winner's circle there.

Aside from Watson, Bryson DeChambeau (28-1) is arguably the most accomplished player in this range. However, he's making a long flight home from Dubai after finishing tied for eighth in his title defense on the European Tour.

Collin Morikawa (33-1) and Sungjae Im (33-1) find themselves grouped alongside accomplished PGA Tour winners despite only having one alternate-field victory between the two of them. You can find similarly profiled players at double the odds further down the board.

The long shots

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Seeing Jordan Spieth's name priced at 50-1 is jarring but the former world No. 1 sits outside the top 50 after a terrible run of form. He's deserving of the long odds at the Waste Management Open and isn't a tempting wager until he shows signs of his former self.

Scottie Scheffler (50-1) and Viktor Hovland (50-1) jump off the page as candidates to claim their first PGA Tour victory in Phoenix, a feat Brooks Koepka accomplished in 2015. Both future stars boast elite tee-to-green games and look primed to take the next step in their careers.

Matthew Wolff and Byeong Hun An are worth serious consideration at 66-1. Wolff made his first PGA Tour start at TPC Scottsdale last year as an amateur and came tied for 50th - not a bad result for a 19-year-old. An led the Phoenix Open after 54 holes in 2017 and has taken a liking to the course.

Venturing too far down the board this week is a risky proposition due to the abundance of talent at the top. However, if you're looking for some triple-digit fliers, here are a few:

  • Brendan Steele (100-1): Lost in a playoff three weeks ago and has four top-six results at TPC Scottsdale since 2012.
  • Martin Laird (125-1): Missed one cut at TPC Scottsdale since 2011 with four top-10 finishes over that stretch.
  • Matt Jones (200-1): Won the Australian Open in December and has made five straight cuts in Phoenix.

Picks to win

Scottie Scheffler (50-1)

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The rookie played very well in the fall season and carried his strong play into a top-five result at The American Express. Scheffler did miss the cut last week but Torrey Pines is far more punitive off the tee than TPC Scottsdale. He'll be able to pound drivers without concern and allow his impressive iron play to vault him into contention.

Matthew Wolff (66-1)

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Wolff continues to get disrespected compared to his similarly-skilled peers. He's double the price of Morikawa and Im, neither of whom beat Wolff last week at Torrey Pines. He's priced higher than Hovland, who's yet to win on the PGA Tour and is making the long trip back from Dubai.

Wolff played TPC Scottsdale last year as a 19-year-old amateur and made the cut. His skill set fits this venue perfectly and he'll have no problem capitalizing on the rather short par 5s. Backing Wolff is an amazing value play when you compare his odds to those of other players who have a similar pedigree on the PGA Tour.

Byeong Hun An (66-1)

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An is a ball-striking wizard who tends to always struggle on the greens. However, that's not the case at TPC Scottsdale where he's gained strokes putting in two of his three trips to Phoenix. If his hot flatstick from years past returns, he has a good shot at claiming his first title this week.

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