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Full betting preview, picks for the CJ Cup

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The PGA Tour heads to South Korea for the CJ Cup, which marks the start of the circuit's Asian swing. The Club at Nine Bridges on Jeju Island will host the 78-man field for the first of three straight no-cut events.

Nine Bridges presents generous fairways and a solid tee-to-green test. Wind can be a considerable factor as the course sits near the base of a mountain. If the wind picks up, the smaller-than-average greens will become difficult to hit and really test a player's short game.

The limited field and guarantee of four rounds - assuming no one withdraws - changes things slightly from a betting perspective. A poor performance in Round 1 doesn't necessarily rule out the possibility of cashing a bet, especially if you are looking into the top-10 or top-20 markets.

The course

  • 7,241 yards, par 72
  • Bentgrass greens
  • Wind will be a factor; course located near the base of a mountain
  • Small greens make around-the-green skills important
  • Most golfers can reach the par 5s in two strokes

Previous winners

2018: Brooks Koepka (-21)
2017: Justin Thomas (-9)

The favorites

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Player Odds 2018 2017
Justin Thomas 13-2 36 1
Brooks Koepka 9-1 1 DNP
Hideki Matsuyama 16-1 18 DNP
Tommy Fleetwood 20-1 DNP DNP
Viktor Hovland 20-1 DNP DNP
Collin Morikawa 25-1 DNP DNP
Jason Day 25-1 5 11
Rafael Cabrera Bello 25-1 3 11
Sergio Garcia 25-1 DNP DNP
Jordan Spieth 25-1 DNP DNP
Sungjae Im 25-1 41 DNP

Justin Thomas (13-2) and Brooks Koepka (9-1) won the CJ in their first appearances at the event and are considered the two favorites, for obvious reasons.

Thomas played brilliantly in his season debut at the Safeway Open, gaining strokes across the board en route to a T-4 result. However, 13-2 is far too short of a price regardless of his potential to run away with the tournament.

The same can be said for Koepka at 9-1 despite the world's No. 1 golfer coming off an ugly display at the Shriners Open where he missed the cut by four shots. His game clearly fits Nine Bridges, but he provides little value as the second favorite on the board.

Below the top two players is a large group lingering around the 20-1 number. Hideki Matsuyama (16-1) can be quickly glossed over as he's likely already thinking about next week's event in Japan. Two young stars in Viktor Hovland (20-1) and Collin Morikawa (25-1) find themselves near the top of the betting board but recent short-game struggles suggest they may fail to convert crucial par saves throughout the week.

Rafael Cabrera Bello (25-1) and Jason Day (25-1) played well in their last two trips to South Korea. Bello is coming off a runner-up finish at the Spanish Open, while Day has shown no signs of form over the past three months.

Jeju Island's own Sungjae Im will be under the microscope all week as he searches for his first PGA Tour win at the course he grew up playing. The pressure could prove to be too much for 21-year-old to handle.

Jordan Spieth (25-1) is set to make his 2019-20 debut. His poor play last year was heavily documented and remains one of the biggest stories entering the new season. Spieth is an easy fade until he shows signs of regaining his past form.

If choosing from the favorites, Tommy Fleetwood (20-1) and Sergio Garcia (25-1) would be the best options. Both are fairly priced and possess the elite tee-to-green game required to score at Nine Bridges.

The next tier

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With a condensed 78-man field, over 25% of the players competing this week are priced between 25-1 and 80-1. Only a handful are worthy of consideration, though.

Marc Leishman (28-1) and Matthew Wolff (40-1) are two names who stand out near the top of this range.

Leishman will be hoping the wind picks up as it did in 2017 when he lost in a playoff to Thomas. He's a world-class wind player and is coming off a solo-third showing at the Safeway Open.

Wolff's odds seem long when compared to other golfers in their early-20s. His short game is better than that of Hovland, Morikawa, and Im, while his ball-striking skills resemble the other three. You don't have to settle for odds 30-1 or shorter to get a piece of golf's next generation.

Byeong Hun An (50-1) and Ian Poulter (50-1) have the all-around tee-to-green game required to win at Nine Bridges. They played the last two tournaments in South Korea and both finished inside the top 15 at least once.

Gary Woodland (28-1) and Danny Willett (33-1) are also enticing options. Woodland finished second at the CJ Cup last year and Willett recently won the BMW PGA Championship - a marquee event on the European Tour.

The long shots

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Through the CJ Cup's association with the Korean Tour and Asian Tour, there have been a group of players near the bottom of the betting board whose chances of winning are slim to none. That limits the number of legitimate long-shot picks, but there are a couple of solid options.

How about Phil Mickelson at 80-1? He showed flashes in his last start at the Shriners where he gained 5.4 strokes tee-to-green. Mickelson won't need to be deadly accurate off the tee, and if Nine Bridges becomes a short-game test, Phil will like his chances as there are few better with a wedge in their hands.

South Korean Si Woo Kim (125-1) is flying under the radar once again. Once a very inconsistent player, he's made six straight cuts and owns a winning pedigree on the PGA Tour.

Keith Mitchell (125-1), J.B. Holmes (150-1), and Max Homa (250-1) are all huge long shots who've won on the PGA Tour within the past 12 months.

Picks to win

Sergio Garcia (25-1)

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Garcia won a European Tour event in September and finished T-7 at the Spanish Open two weeks ago. His game appears to be clicking after a lackluster end to his 2018-19 PGA Tour season; a game that when on, will fit Nine Bridges to a tee.

Matthew Wolff (40-1)

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Wolff is a value pick when you compare him to some similar players in the field. He's already collected his first win on Tour, something Hovland and Im can't say. His length off the tee, ability to get hot with his irons, and overlooked short-game give Wolff all the tools required to notch his second win in only his 10th start on Tour.

Si Woo Kim (125-1)

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In a 78-man field with no cut, nearly everyone with PGA Tour talent has a chance to win. Im's emergence has caused Kim to go unnoticed despite winning twice before the age of 22. The 2017 Players champion finished T-23 last year during his second trip to Nine Bridges. Win No. 3 for Kim could very well come at 125-1 odds on home soil.

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