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Point to capitalize vs. porous Capitals defense at home

Mark LoMoglio / National Hockey League / Getty

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We had a bounce-back night with our player props, falling one Auston Matthews shot shy of a sweep.

We'll look to keep the ball rolling with three more shot totals for a monster Thursday slate.

Dylan Larkin: Over 2.5 shots

Larkin has been a steady shot-generator all season long. He's averaged 3.1 shots on goal per game and gone over his total a whopping 65% of the time.

While we've seen a bit of a dip in his outputs of late, that appears to be matchup-related. Larkin failed to go over the number in four of the past five, but the opponents he faced in that span (Canucks, Flames, Kraken, and Oilers) are all low-event teams, excellent at suppressing shots, or a combination of the two.

Larkin finds himself in a much better shooting environment tonight against the Avalanche. They've given up 33.3 shots per game over their last 10 road dates, which is tied for seventh-most in the NHL. They're a much different team on the road.

The Avs also give up a lot of volume to opposing centers. They've allowed more than 17 shot attempts per game to the position over the last 10 games overall. Only the Canadiens, Coyotes, and Sharks - three rebuilding teams - have allowed more in that time.

With the Red Wings heavily reliant on their captain in the thick of a heated playoff race, Larkin should be able to get a few shots on net in this one.

Odds: -140 (playable to -150)

Brayden Point: Over 2.5 shots

Death, taxes, and Point at home. The Lightning star continues to chug along when playing in Tampa Bay. He's gone over his total in 21 of 28 games at home (75% success rate), including eight in a row and nine of the last 10.

The matchup doesn't seem to matter for Point, who's hit against top-of-the-league teams like the Panthers and Avalanche during this hot streak. He's consistently hitting while posting strong underlying volume.

Point has averaged a hair under six attempts per game over his last 10 at home. For perspective of how efficient Point is with his shots, he's registered at least three in 20 of the 25 games he recorded five attempts or more. That's an 80% success rate across all venues.

As a bonus, the Lightning recently moved Anthony Cirelli to the top line instead of Point. This adds more balance to their lineup and makes Point the primary target on his unit, with him no longer needing to defer to Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos to shoot the puck - at least not at five-on-five.

The Capitals are bottom-10 in shots against per game over the last 10 and are laboring at five-on-five. Expect Point to take advantage.

Odds: -134 (playable to -160)

William Nylander: Over 3.5 shots

We targeted the Golden Knights with a star winger last time out. Although Filip Forsberg didn't go over his number, it certainly wasn't for a lack of opportunity. He generated 10 shot attempts but managed to hit the net on just two of them. The process was there, but the result wasn't.

I'm going to target the Golden Knights once again with Nylander. The Golden Knights have allowed more shot attempts per game versus wingers than any other team over the last 10 games. They're giving up absurd volume, and there's no reason to expect any different moving forward.

Jack Eichel remains out, and now Mark Stone, one of the best two-way wingers in the sport, is injured and will be sidelined for the foreseeable future.

The Golden Knights will use the William Karlsson line - their best defensive unit - against Matthews, which frees up the Nylander line to go up against weaker lines that give up a lot on the defensive side of the ice.

Nylander registered seven shots on 10 attempts Wednesday night against a Coyotes team bleeding shots. I don't know that he'll reach those heights again in this game, but he should have little problem getting to four.

Odds: -118 (playable to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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