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Back Matthews to continue dominance in the desert

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We had a disappointing 1-2 night with shot props. Aleksander Barkov started things off with an over against the Senators, but Filip Forsberg hit the net only twice on 10 shot attempts in Vegas, while Viktor Arvidsson didn't even complete his first shift of the game before leaving with an injury.

We'll take those losses on the chin and look to bounce back with three more props for a fruitful Wednesday card.

Tage Thompson: Over 3.5 shots

Thompson registered at least four shots on goal in five of the past six games, with the lone exception coming against a stingy Kings side.

There is every reason to expect continued shooting success Wednesday night in Montreal.

Thompson has Alex Tuch back on his right wing. That provides a boost to his shooting floor and ceiling, as Thompson generates five-on-five shots at a higher rate alongside Tuch than any other regular linemate.

He should be able to pile them up in bulk against the Canadiens. Thompson's line will see a lot of Cole Caufield and Montreal's top unit, and, although that line is piping hot offensively, it gives up plenty of shot volume at the other end.

It's also worth noting a good chunk of Thompson's shots come from power-play opportunities, and there will likely be plenty against a Canadiens side that leads the slate in shorthanded time per game over the last 10.

Thompson's recent success has come against teams unable to stay out of the box (the Panthers, Ducks, Wild, etc.). Those extra power plays help push his shot outputs over the edge, which I expect to be the case again in this one.

Odds: -106 (playable to -125)

Frank Vatrano: Over 2.5 shots

Vatrano is an absolute force on home ice. He has recorded three shots or more 20 times in 27 tries, good for a remarkable 74% success rate.

A lot of those shots came without Troy Terry, who was recently moved onto his line and whose impact is certainly being felt as Vatrano's shot rates are skyrocketing even further.

Vatrano is averaging nearly 14 shots on goal per 60 minutes of five-on-five play with Terry on his line.

For perspective, Vatrano generated 11.31 with Adam Henrique, 9.21 with Ryan Strome, and 6.81 with Alex Killorn. Big differences.

With such a low shot total, Vatrano is a prime target at home against any opponent - let alone the Blue Jackets, who have given up shots in bulk all season long. Their top line is the only one limiting shots at a decent rate, and Vatrano should see very little of them.

Odds: -140 (playable to -150)

Auston Matthews: Over 4.5 shots

This matchup is as good as it gets, as the Coyotes have been an unmitigated disaster defensively of late, posting horrendous metrics across the board.

They rank 30th in shot suppression at five-on-five over the last 10 games and 29th while killing penalties. The Coyotes compound their PK woes by parading to the box more than almost every team in the league.

Arizona is conceding a ton of shot volume across all situations, and it just so happens a huge chunk of it comes from opposing centers.

The Coyotes allowed just under 14 shots per game against centers over the past 10 contests. For added color, only one other team (the Canadiens) has conceded more than 12.10 shots per game to centers in that span.

Matthews is one of the best volume shooters in the league and is pushing for 50 goals against his hometown team, a team that is bleeding shots to his position and taking penalties in bulk.

The stars are aligning for another big shooting - and perhaps scoring - night for Matthews.

Odds: -110 (playable to -125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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