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Pucks on net: Backing Caufield as 1 of 3 shot props for Tuesday

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It was a solid start to the week for our player props. We cashed two of three, including a Jack Hughes goal prop at a fruitful +130 price.

We'll look to keep the ball rolling with three more plays for a massive Tuesday card.

David Pastrnak: Over 4.5 shots

Pastrnak is always a priority target on home ice. He's averaging 5.2 shots on goal per game in Boston this season and has gone over his total at a healthy 62% clip.

The 27-year-old's hit rate is even higher if the contest is remotely competitive. Of the last five home games that Pastrnak failed to hit his total, all five were decided by three-plus goals. If the matchup is close and there's reason to push for more offense, Pastrnak comes through at an even higher rate.

I expect we'll get a competitive game in this one. The Bruins are coming off a shutout loss in their own building and are looking to get back on track. The Lightning - winners in seven of their last 10 - won't be pushovers against a divisional rival.

Seven of the past eight contests between Boston and Tampa Bay were decided by two or fewer goals, with one goal being the difference in five matchups. The games are almost always close when these two sides square off, which no doubt plays a part in Pastrnak having five shots or more in six of the last eight versus the Lightning.

Look for Pastrnak to rebound following a quiet game against the Capitals.

Odds: -125 (playable to -140)

Cole Caufield: Over 3.5 shots

Like many goal-scorers, Caufield has rather extreme home/road splits. He averages four shots per game in Montreal and has a 56% success rate. However, he produces just 3.1 shots per contest and hits 40% of the time on the road.

Caufield has a mouthwatering matchup on home ice Tuesday, which is what I love about him. The Ducks are one of the NHL's worst shot-suppression teams, giving up nearly 33 shots per game this season.

Anaheim struggles mightily at five-on-five and is an unmitigated disaster while killing penalties. It ranks 32nd in shot attempts against and 31st in expected goals against on the penalty kill. The Ducks also average 6:28 per game down at least one man - the highest total in the NHL.

At home against a poor defensive team that parades to the box nightly, Caufield couldn't find himself in a better position for shooting success.

Look for him to stay hot and go over his total at home for the eighth time in 11 games.

Odds: -122 (playable to -135)

Patrick Kane: Over 2.5 shots

Since joining the Red Wings, Kane has shown remarkable consistency with his shot generation. He's averaged 3.3 shots on nearly six attempts per game and has gone over his line 14 times in just 20 tries. That's a 70% success rate.

Kane has skated on the second line since rejoining the lineup following injury. I don't think that's a bad thing, at least not in a road game against Edmonton.

Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch tends to use best on best, meaning the dominant trio of Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins should mostly see Detroit's top line.

That would lead to a lot of ice for Kane against the Leon Draisaitl line, which doesn't spend as much time in the offensive zone and gives up many more shots and chances.

Kane recorded three shots on eight attempts when these teams met in January. He also recorded at least three shots in nine straight meetings versus the Oilers dating back a few seasons.

Odds: +124 (playable to -115)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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