NHL Wednesday best bets: Sabres to best Capitals

Tuesday night was a solid one on the ice, as we split our best bets while going 2-1 on player props to turn a profit.

We'll look to keep things moving in the right direction with three more plays for Wednesday's four games.

Sabres (+100) @ Capitals (-120)

Leading up to the trade deadline, the Washington Capitals punted on the season by shipping away a handful of quality contributors in exchange for assets to better serve them in the future. Boy, has it showed.

Since deadline day, the Capitals controlled a putrid 38.54% of the expected goal share at five-on-five. That ranks dead last in the NHL.

Those numbers stem mostly from an inability to defend. With John Carlson and Nick Jensen injured - and Dmitry Orlov now playing for the Boston Bruins - Washington just doesn't have the horses defensively to limit shots and chances at anywhere close to the level it did previously.

For all their faults, the one thing the Buffalo Sabres can really do is put pressure on defenses with a dangerous run-and-gun offense.

Be it at five-on-five or across all game states, the Sabres rank third in goals per 60 minutes this season.

Led by Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner, Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin, and Alex Tuch - who just returned to the lineup last time out - the Sabres can do severe damage offensively against teams that aren't up for the challenge.

They should significantly benefit from a date with an injury-plagued Capitals team that can't defend a lick.

Charlie Lindgren's presence between the pipes for Washington in a back-to-back situation will be a nice little bonus. He held up well for the first half of the season, but his play tailed off significantly since the calendar flipped.

Lindgren ranks 64th among 69 eligible netminders in save percentage (.877) in 2023. Suffice to say, he's going to have his hands full against a desperate Sabres team with a lethal offense.

Look for the Sabres to claim another much-needed two points.

Bet: Sabres (+100)

Tage Thompson over 3.5 shots (+110)

Thompson hasn't hit the over as regularly of late, but his shot volume remains consistently high. He's still the Sabres' primary shooter, leading the team by a healthy margin of 11 in shot attempts over the last 10 games.

It just so happens one of Thompson's best games of late came versus the Capitals. At the end of February, he amassed seven shots on goal and 11 attempts against a Washington team that was less thinned out than it is now.

With every point crucial, the Sabres will no doubt be giving Thompson a full workload in this spot. I expect he'll play 19-20 minutes Wednesday night, which should be more than enough for him to take advantage of such a strong matchup.

Noah Dobson over 2.5 shots (-125)

I generally want two things when backing Dobson: home ice and a good matchup. While we don't have the former, the latter more than makes up for it. The Anaheim Ducks are a dream opponent for shooters - especially on the backend.

They've allowed 11.51 shots per game to blue-liners this season, which is good for 32nd in the NHL. Their standing isn't much better over the last 10 games, as they slot 30th.

Dobson leads the New York Islanders in attempts (61) over the past 10, recording 12 more than the closest teammate in that span. He's shooting a lot.

With his average volume, we'd only need Dobson to hit the net on half of his attempts to get the job done. It's possible - and perhaps likely - we'll see an uptick in such a strong matchup.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.