NHL Thursday best bets: Senators to rebound vs. Kraken
After a quiet Wednesday night, the NHL is back in full force with a juicy 11-gamer on the docket for Thursday.
Let's waste no time getting to a couple of the games that stand out the most.
Devils (-150) @ Capitals (+130)
The Devils are quietly playing some of their best of the season. That's saying something considering they sit third in the NHL in points and goal differential; the bar is high.
They have won the expected goal battle at five-on-five in 11 of the last 12 games and have consistently graded remarkably well, even in defeat.
For example, the Devils have suffered three losses over the past nine games. The lowest expected goal share they posted in one of those three came last time out against the Maple Leafs, a game in which the Devils controlled 66.89% of the expected goals and won the Grade A chance battle 15-4.
If those are the kind of losing efforts the Devils are putting out, they're in really good shape.
The one - and perhaps only - concern with them of late is the play of Vitek Vanecek. He has provided stable play for the majority of the year, but he's really fallen into a rut. He has posted a sub-.865 save percentage five games in a row, allowing 20 goals over that span despite facing more than 25 shots just once.
The expectation is he'll get a night off in favor of Akira Schmid. The young Swiss netminder has played really well when given the chance, posting a .926 save percentage through 12 NHL appearances this year.
He should be able to step in and get the job done against the post-deadline version of the Washington Capitals. Their play of late leaves a lot to be desired; they've managed just a 43% xG share over the last five.
Their issues stem mostly from a bruised and battered defense. John Carlson, Nick Jensen, and Martin Fehervary are all injured, which has left their blue line very thin.
Look for a Devils team loaded with firepower - Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, and Timo Meier come to mind - to exploit those weaknesses and get the Devils back in the win column inside 60 minutes.
Bet: Devils in regulation (+105)
Senators (+110) @ Kraken (-130)
The Eastern Conference has sort of beat up on the Western Conference this season, which a quick look at the standings would tell you.
I expect that trend to continue Thursday night when the Senators take on the Kraken in Seattle.
The Senators have largely played quality hockey for several months now. Their underlying metrics are good, they have finished chances at an efficient clip, and they seem to have a real positive aura around them as they push to get into a wild-card spot.
The Senators sort of took their foot off the gas against Chicago last time out, expecting a free two points against the Blackhawks. They paid the price; it was their first negative xG performance in six games and they were blown out of the rink, 5-0.
Brady Tkachuk and co. are no doubt chomping at the bit to right those wrongs and respond following what can only be considered an embarrassing effort.
Although the Kraken - on a 7-3 run - look to be a fierce opponent right now, they are more bark than bite. They have controlled just 46% of the expected goal share at five-on-five (24th) and own a negative goal differential in that gamestate.
They have also faced the Red Wings (x2), Ducks, Blue Jackets, Blues, Sharks, and Flyers in that time. Their schedule has been soft and they've still posted underwhelming numbers.
With a mediocre five-on-five game, and pedestrian goaltending, I expect the Kraken to take a step back and taste defeat against the Senators.
Bet: Senators (+110)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.