Hart Trophy Rankings: Thompson joins crowded field pursuing McDavid

If you've been following the Hart Trophy race since early in this season, we don't have to tiptoe around the fact that Connor McDavid is running away with it. While there remains little to no debate about who the clear front-runner is, that doesn't mean we should entirely ignore other stars having commendable campaigns.

Numerous players would have strong MVP cases if McDavid wasn't dominating by such a large margin, so being named a finalist at season's end probably won't be as disappointing for the runners-up as it may have been in other years.

Jack Hughes was previously in the hunt, but Dawson Mercer has been the one carrying the New Jersey Devils recently with 11 goals and nearly two points per game over his last 11 contests. That hindered Hughes' case this time around, as did the fact that the American was outplayed by our No. 5 candidate.

Here are the five most worthy candidates for the NHL's top individual honor as we enter the final stretch in 2022-23:

5. Jason Robertson

Robertson keeps hanging around, and while he isn't a surefire Hart finalist, the Dallas Stars winger certainly warrants inclusion. He has seven more goals and 23 more points than the next-best teammate while ranking among the NHL's best in goals and points both overall and at even strength this season. He produced five goals and nine assists in the 12 games since we last checked in on the MVP race.

While Robertson's wins above replacement and goals above replacement figures don't compare to the others on this list, his expected goals for and scoring chances for percentages at five-on-five are comparable to the very best in the league among forwards with at least 700 minutes played in those situations. He also sits with the NHL's elite in terms of individual expected goals, both at five-on-five and in all situations.

The 23-year-old has a better supporting cast than the two players directly in front of him here. A Stars squad that includes a fringe Vezina Trophy contender means "Robo" hasn't quite been as critical to his club's success as Nos. 3 and 4 have to theirs. But Dallas wouldn't be sitting atop the Central Division if not for Robertson, who continues to blossom into a superstar.

4. Tage Thompson

Thompson has been the primary reason the Buffalo Sabres have been one of the best and most surprising stories in the NHL this season. The 6-foot-6, 200-pound center is leading the team with 14 more goals and 20 more points than his nearest teammates. He's notched eight tallies and nine helpers in 13 games since our last edition, and he ranks third in the league in goals and fifth in points.

Thompson is doing a lot of his work on the power play, but the underlying numbers hint at the 25-year-old experiencing a bit of bad luck at five-on-five. He sits eighth in the NHL in ixG in those situations - despite ranking lower on the leaderboards in actual even-strength goals and points - and only McDavid is above him in five-on-five ixG among the players listed here.

The imposing forward has been the driving force for a club making an unexpected playoff push, and Buffalo's rise clearly wouldn't be happening without his consistently elite efforts.

3. Matthew Tkachuk

Tkachuk moved up one spot from last month, and there's ample evidence he belongs here. The Florida Panthers winger will lose some votes because of how uninspired his team has been this season. But he actually deserves credit for being so effective on such an underwhelming club, keeping in mind that one hockey player can't impact his team's success to the extent athletes in other sports can (unless the player's name is Connor McDavid).

Imagine where the Cats would be without Tkachuk and consider how much more difficult it is to do what he's doing on a squad that's disappointed like this. The 25-year-old ranks among the league leaders in the three basic offensive categories, but his contributions go far beyond goals, assists and points. Tkachuk's xGF% and SCF% at five-on-five are both in the top 10 in the NHL among the same group we used to evaluate Robertson.

Most remarkably, Tkachuk ranks fourth in the league in WAR and GAR. He's been one of the best in both of those departments all season long. The snarl-providing Panther has 13 more assists and 26 more points than his best teammates, and he sits seventh in the NHL in even-strength points. Tkachuk has been extremely valuable and deserves way more recognition than he's received.

2. David Pastrnak

It's tempting to question Pastrnak's case because of how excellent Linus Ullmark has been in goal for the Boston Bruins and how much of a juggernaut they've been as a team this season. While those factors could hinder players' odds of winning this award, Pastrnak is still providing value rivaled only by McDavid in 2022-23.

Pastrnak ranks second in the NHL in goals and fourth in points. He's tied for third in even-strength tallies and sits fifth in even-strength points. But where his nearly unmatched value is most evident is the vast difference in production between the Czech winger and his superstar teammates. Pastrnak has 22 more goals and an astounding 31 more points than the next-best Bruins in those categories (Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, respectively).

So yes, the Bruins have been a force to be reckoned with as a team, and yes, they have plenty of impact players aside from Pastrnak. But the fact that he's been so much better than his talented teammates - and almost everyone else in the NHL, for that matter - makes him a serious Hart Trophy candidate who'd have a good chance of winning if not for a certain alien on the Oilers.

1. Connor McDavid

McDavid's stranglehold on this award is only getting tighter as the season goes along. The Edmonton Oilers superstar leads the "Rocket" Richard Trophy race by nine and the Art Ross hunt by an incredible margin of 27. He has at least 30 more points than anyone not named Leon Draisaitl, and McDavid clearly deserves partial credit for his teammate's success.

The 26-year-old leads all NHL forwards in average ice time, is tied for top spot in even-strength goals, and ranks second in both even-strength points and shots on goal in all situations. McDavid still boasts exemplary underlying numbers, too, and they've improved since our last edition. Most impressively, he now leads the NHL in WAR and GAR. McDavid's SCF% (58%) is nearly identical to his excellent xGF%, as well.

The electric center authored five straight multi-goal games from late February to early March and amassed a mind-boggling 30 points in the 14 games since our previous edition. Hart voting normally prioritizes value over counting stats, but McDavid's proving his unparalleled value even while racking up arcade-like numbers.

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)