Storylines to watch ahead of Lightning-Rangers Game 5
The Tampa Bay Lightning have turned the tables on the New York Rangers, tying the Eastern Conference Final series 2-2. Yet the Rangers have been stellar at home this postseason (8-1) and the two teams next meet Thursday at Madison Square Garden. Here are four storylines to watch ahead of a pivotal Game 5.
Lightning's giveaways, discipline
Puck management is a hallmark of this dynasty-chasing Lightning core. When a Tampa Bay skater has the puck on his stick, he doesn't give it up easily. The team ranked last in the entire NHL in giveaways during the regular season.
The Lightning's giveaway numbers in this series are ... interesting. In Games 1 and 2, they turned the puck over 28 and 22 times, respectively, before recording just six and nine giveaways in Games 3 and 4.
It's hard to tell exactly how much of that discrepancy is rooted in rink bias (the Rangers' giveaway numbers also plummetted in the Florida games) and how much of it is Nikita Kucherov and Co. slowly getting their act together.
Realistically, it's probably a mix of both factors, as there's no question the Lightning have played a more precise, detailed game in victories. On a micro level, Kucherov's dominance from shift to shift has only increased as the series has developed. The superstar winger uses his unparalleled vision to keep the Rangers guessing off the rush and when Tampa Bay has sustained pressure.
The result: Kucherov and linemates Ondrej Palat and Steven Stamkos account for nine of the squad's 11 goals. Palat leads the series in individual expected goals for, while Stamkos is second, and Kucherov is tied for third with Mika Zibanejad of the Rangers. Simply put, New York won't advance to the Stanley Cup Final unless it finds a way to limit that killer trio.
If the Lightning can stay out of the penalty box, as they managed to do in a Game 4 that featured just two power-play opportunities for the Rangers, there's a solid chance they'll advance. New York's power play is clicking at a playoff-high 32.1% rate through 53 opportunities this postseason.
2nd act of goaltending duel
Neither goalie has recorded a shutout. Game 1's final score was 6-2; Game 4's was 4-1. On the surface, this series hasn't been the all-out goaltending duel many predicted. Yet Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin have both played well overall and a showdown is still very much a possibility heading into Game 5 - especially with Vasilevskiy once again looking like his all-world self.
"He's getting his mojo back," Lightning coach Jon Cooper told reporters after Vasilevskiy stopped 34 of 35 shots, including all 27 at five-on-five, in Game 4.
The nine-day layoff between the second and third rounds seemed to affect Vasilevskiy more than anybody else on the Lightning. Since that debacle of a Game 1 (six goals against on New York's 34 shots and 3.12 expected goals), Vasilevskiy's gotten progressively sharper. His elite puck tracking is back.
That said, Shesterkin's .934 save percentage through four games towers over Vasilevskiy's .906%. Against Tampa Bay, Shesterkin, the presumed Vezina Trophy winner, has bailed out his teammates as he so often did in the regular season. Recent history suggests he'll also shine in Game 5.
At home this postseason, Shesterkin has been superb, posting single-game SV% rates of .935, .949, .949, .968, .977, .929, .906, .951, and .952.
Adam Fox's 3-zone impact
New York rallied back from a 3-1 deficit in the first round and a 3-2 deficit in the second round. Fox, only 24, was a major contributor in both comebacks.
One of the headliners in a postseason filled with Norris Trophy-caliber defensemen, Fox has an opportunity to put the Rangers on his back in what's turned into a best-of-three series. Not overly big or fast, Fox is extremely effective in all three zones of the ice because of his smarts and poise. Regardless of the situation, he always seems to facilitate for his teammates.
What's shown up in the box scores through a team-high 105 minutes against the Lightning - five assists, including four primary helpers - is notable. But it doesn't fully capture his overall impact. Fox has also drawn even at 3-3 with Kucherov, the deadliest offensive player in this series, in 33 minutes of head-to-head action at five-on-five. In total, he's 4-4 at even strength, which is pretty impressive considering all of Tampa Bay's firepower.
Fox must continue his strong play in Game 5.
Rangers' growing injury list
Brayden Point's health is the biggest question mark of the series. According to Cooper, the stud center hasn't been ruled a "definite out" for the remaining games, but there are no promises about his return. The Lightning are otherwise healthy.
The Rangers, on the other hand, are not so lucky.
Second-line center Ryan Strome missed Game 4 with a lower-body injury. Filip Chytil - who's been an offensive catalyst on the so-called Kid Line and scored a pair of goals in the series opener - didn't return after leaving Game 4 at the end of the second period to tend to an upper-body injury. Gallant said Wednesday that both forwards are "game-time decisions" for Thursday.
New York isn't a particularly deep team at full health. Even the best-case scenario (Strome and Chytil in the lineup and taking regular shifts) is far from ideal since both players are clearly ailing. And let's not forget: Another forward, Sammy Blais, is still out, and a fourth forward, Barclay Goodrow, took a wicked Victor Hedman slap shot off the ankle in Game 3.
Could these injuries be the Rangers' undoing?
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).