NHL Monday best bets: Road warriors
Tonight is a crucial one for all eight teams in action. Three sides can put their opponent on the brink with a victory, while one club could potentially end its series outright.
Let's take a look at where the value lies.
Flames (-155) @ Stars (+130)
The Calgary Flames are off to a very disappointing start. They have struggled mightily to get the offense going, netting just three goals through three games, and that's how they found themselves trailing in a series they were heavily favored to win.
Although the Flames have struggled in years past, and this sort of feels like deja vu, I wouldn't write them off. They have not played poorly overall - outside of finishing - and there is reason to believe the squad can right this ship sooner than later.
Calgary has controlled nearly 52.5% of the expected goals at five-on-five. The team's not running the Dallas Stars off the ice, but it's encouraging to have gotten the better of the chances at full strength.
The Flames look even better when all situations are taken into account, as their share of the high-danger chances sits at 55.71% - good for fifth highest in the playoffs.
So why isn't Calgary scoring while other sides are? A lack of finishing and puck luck. The team is shooting just 3.13%. That's right - opposing goalies have stopped nearly 97% of the shots taken. It doesn't matter if the club was facing prime Patrick Roy. The Flames should score at a higher rate than that, and it's a fair expectation moving forward.
Calgary has also converted on only one of the 39 high-danger chances it's generated for a putrid 4.17% finishing rate on top-tier looks. No other team sits below 12%.
Regression is going to come - let's hope it starts tonight.
Bet: Flames in regulation (+100)
Avalanche (-250) @ Predators (+200)
Juuse Saros or not, the Nashville Predators do not belong on the same ice as the Colorado Avalanche. That has been very evident so far.
Colorado has out-attempted Nashville 264-150 (+114), out-chanced them 132-62 (+70), and outscored them 16-6 (+10) through just three contests.
It's nearly impossible to beat any team while being so decisively outplayed each and every night. When the opponent has as much talent as Colorado, it is borderline impossible to keep up.
And the results have proven that. The Avalanche have a pair of blowout wins, and they outshot Nashville 51-26 in the lone close game.
With respect to the Predators, I don't think they have enough high-end talent - or depth - to flip the switch and put up much of a fight against a healthy Avs side built to overpower almost any opponent.
Colorado will be out for blood to finish this series, get home, and rest up for the next round. The team's dealt with a ton of injuries this season and knows the importance of mopping things up to ensure the guys don't need to put any extra mileage on their bodies.
Look for the Avs to get a win inside 60 minutes - perhaps even comfortably.
Bet: Avalanche in regulation (-155)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.