NHL playoff picks: Lightning strikes twice for Blue Jackets
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Don't let us get hot. Another sweep Friday (2-0-1 if we want to get technical) takes us to 6-1-1 over the last three days and 6-2-1 overall in Round 1 for a tidy profit.
Let's fire up another perfect day, yeah?
Tampa Bay Lightning (-185) @ Columbus Blue Jackets (+155)
You can't say the Blue Jackets aren't living rent-free in the Lightning's heads. Regardless of the shot counts, scoring chances, or expected goals, Tampa finds itself in a dog fight once again. Columbus is making the Bolts work incredibly hard for every opportunity, every inch. And when they do get a chance, Joonas Korpisalo is having absolutely none of it.
It took Tampa five overtimes to win Game 1, and the team didn't get anything going in a Game 2 loss. The Lightning have scored just three goals through 11 periods in this series, and you're kidding yourself if you don't think they're in their heads about it. It's a huge mental hurdle to overcome, especially given how last season's first-round matchup played out.
The underlying metrics are fairly complimentary of Tampa through two games, but that's to be expected. Columbus will allow opponents to play in its end, but the damage is mitigated by stellar goaltending, countless blocked shots, and aggressive defending.
The Blue Jackets also have a way of wearing teams down in the process. Their relentless forecheck is a nightmare to face and their physical play takes quite a toll. We saw it last year, we saw it in the play-in round against the Maple Leafs, and we're seeing it again now - the Jackets excel in a playoff setting. They come into this game brimming with confidence and are too good to pass up at this price.
Pick: Blue Jackets (+155)
Vegas Golden Knights (-200) @ Chicago Blackhawks (+170)
If Dylan Strome's shot was half an inch lower, this series would be level. That's the drum Jeremy Colliton will be beating in the Blackhawks' dressing room ahead of Game 3. Chicago's head coach will cite bad luck as the reason this series isn't tied, delivering the "we can play with these guys" message over and over again.
The reality, though, is that the Golden Knights are too strong, too deep, and too sound a hockey team. Luck may have abandoned the Blackhawks in overtime, but it was on their side for 60 minutes before it. Vegas was unquestionably the better team throughout regulation, controlling 67.03% of the expected goals share at even strength and nearly doubling the Blackhawks in high-danger chances (15-8).
Chicago has plenty of nice pieces, but its defensive deficiencies are a real problem, especially against a deep and skilled Vegas team well-equipped to exploit them. This is a bit of a square bet, but the public wins from time to time as well.
Pick: Golden Knights -1.5 (+130)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.