NFL stock watch: Tracking regular-season win totals following free agency
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Last week, bettors got the first signal of the new season approaching as regular-season win-total markets opened.
Bettors who think they have an edge on a market with a 3.5% hold and won't be paid out for 10 months immediately weighed in on some of the 32 teams. That lets us see how these teams are ordered, not just relative to their chances of winning the Super Bowl but by how many wins they're expected to record.
NFL regular-season win totals
| TEAM | Win Total (Over odds) |
|---|---|
| Chiefs | 11.5 (-120) |
| Ravens | 11.5 (+110) |
| 49ers | 11.5 (+115) |
| Bills | 10.5 (-130) |
| Bengals | 10.5 (-125) |
| Lions | 10.5 (-115) |
| Cowboys | 10.5 (+100) |
| Eagles | 10.5 (+110) |
| Dolphins | 9.5 (-150) |
| Packers | 9.5 (-140) |
| Falcons | 9.5 (-140) |
| Texans | 9.5 (-110) |
| Jets | 9.5 (+100) |
| Chargers | 8.5 (-135) |
| Bears | 8.5 (-125) |
| Jaguars | 8.5 (-125) |
| Browns | 8.5 (-120) |
| Rams | 8.5 (-120) |
| Steelers | 8.5 (-110) |
| Colts | 8.5 (+110) |
| Buccaneers | 7.5 (-150) |
| Seahawks | 7.5 (-125) |
| Saints | 7.5 (-120) |
| Vikings | 6.5 (-140) |
| Raiders | 6.5 (-140) |
| Cardinals | 6.5 (-130) |
| Commanders | 6.5 (-130) |
| Giants | 6.5 (+110) |
| Titans | 6.5 (+115) |
| Broncos | 5.5 (-150) |
| Patriots | 4.5 (-145) |
| Panthers | 4.5 (-135) |
Unsurprisingly, the three favorites for Super Bowl LIX have the highest win totals. The Chiefs went from a 2023 win total of 11.5 (-140) to Super Bowl champions, but they went under with 11 wins, so it makes sense they're being lined the same this offseason - although it may look as though their stock has dropped.
As we slowly prepare for the 2024 regular season without the full schedule, let's note which teams are perceived the most differently since they played their last game.
Stock rising 📈
Regardless of its record at the end of last season, every team was rated by how many wins it would be capable of if the season started today. For example, the Bengals without Joe Burrow would have been considered between an 8- and 8.5-win team if there was a Week 20. It didn't take much insight to assume Cincinnati expects to be better with Burrow under center in 2024. Now that the regular-season win-total market has opened, we know the median expectation for the Bengals is 11 wins.
Here are the other big movers from where they were rated at the end of last season (2023 close) to the current regular-season win-total market, after accounting for the juice on either side of a potential bet:
| TEAM | 2023 CLOSE | 2024 win total | DIFF. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 6.5 | 10.25 | +3.75 |
| Jets | 7 | 9.5 | +2.5 |
| Texans | 7.25 | 9.75 | +2.5 |
| Bears | 7 | 9 | +2 |
| Steelers | 6.75 | 8.75 | +2 |
| Packers | 8.5 | 10 | +1.5 |
The Falcons' acquisition of Kirk Cousins sent their stock through the roof, and it helps that they play in the worst division in the NFL. The Jets, Steelers, and Bears should all get significantly different quarterback play next season, so there's cautious optimism about those teams.
The Packers' and Texans' boosts are built on the expectation that their strong finishes to the season will carry into this year, with each team bringing back much of the same roster around a young quarterback.
Stock falling 📉
Conversely, some teams' statuses have been downgraded since the 2023 season ended, according to their opening win totals.
| TEAM | 2023 CLOSE | 2024 win total | DIFF. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 13.25 | 11 | -2.25 |
| Cowboys | 12 | 10.5 | -1.5 |
| Eagles | 11.5 | 10.25 | -1.25 |
| Ravens | 12.25 | 11.25 | -1.0 |
As we noted weekly last year, the 49ers were rated historically high by the end of the season. They won 12 games, but in December, they were considered on the level of a 14-win team. Following their free-agent losses, their win total is lower than last offseason.
The Eagles and Cowboys were considered big deals until they lost as favorites in the playoffs. The market has tempered its enthusiasm about those two, along with the Ravens, who had the best 2023 regular-season record.
There are fewer massive downward moves than significant climbs because teams like the Patriots, Broncos, and Titans - who had much higher win totals last offseason - had already cratered by the end of 2023.
The win-total market will continue to mature once the draft is complete and the full schedule is released. We'll then have a better grasp of how the betting market feels about each team once sportsbooks offer Week 1 and "Game of the Year" spreads.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.