8 players who will shape the NFL divisional round
Eight teams remain in Super Bowl contention ahead of the NFL divisional round. These players, one per championship hopeful, have the opportunity and potential to influence this weekend's games.
Texans at Ravens
Lamar Jackson, BAL quarterback: 2023 wasn't Jackson's finest season, but a brilliant finish solidified him as the MVP favorite. He passed for seven touchdowns without an interception to thump the 49ers and Dolphins in back-to-back weeks. Those wins affirmed Baltimore as the most complete title contender.
The Ravens led the NFL in rushing yards, defensive sacks, and points allowed. Their plus-203 point differential ranks second in franchise history, trailing the 2019 powerhouse that flopped in the divisional round. That season's unanimous MVP winner, Jackson lost three turnovers and failed to convert four fourth-down attempts in a stunning home defeat to the Titans.
Jackson exacted revenge on Tennessee on Wild Card Weekend in 2020, securing his only postseason win to date. The Ravens missed the cut in 2021, and he was injured for last year's prompt playoff exit. His growth as a passer this season - Jackson set personal bests in completions (307), completion rate (67.2%), and interception percentage (1.5%) - could finally spark a deep, triumphant run.
Nico Collins, HOU wide receiver: C.J. Stroud's impeccable playoff debut showcased the rookie quarterback's chemistry with Collins, a bona fide No. 1 wideout who raised his game following Tank Dell's season-ending injury. The Stroud-Collins connection on three explosive plays wrongfooted the Browns' defense and got the Texans rolling.
Collins escaped tight coverage in the first quarter to haul in 21-yard and 38-yard catches. He carried a short pass 15 yards to the end zone when the defense sagged off of him. Houston's lead widened when Collins commanded a safety's attention and routed the defender away from Dalton Schultz, enabling Stroud to hit the tight end in open space for a 37-yard score.
Collins' dynamism is irreplaceable. He ranked seventh this season in yards per game (86.5) and was third in yards per target (11.9). Only two of 26 NFL wideouts who also cleared 1,000 yards posted a superior rate of catches per target (Collins' was 73.4%). Between him and Stroud, the Texans have weapons who can test the Ravens' great defense.
Packers at 49ers
Brock Purdy, SF quarterback: A three-game skid in October seemed to signal that Purdy, the exceptional last pick of the 2022 draft, had turned into a pumpkin. Concerns resurfaced when he tossed four interceptions to the Ravens on Christmas Day. Aside from those slip-ups, though, Purdy distributed the ball efficiently for the NFC's top team.
His chance to shine in January has arrived. Purdy didn't throw for a touchdown when the 49ers beat the Cowboys in last year's divisional round nor in the subsequent catastrophic loss to the Eagles that he exited with a UCL tear. He rebounded this season to lead all quarterbacks in yards gained per attempt, passing play success rate, and expected points added per dropback.
People still doubt his talent. The splendid playmakers who surround Purdy - a league-high four Niners exceeded 1,000 scrimmage yards - undeniably help him succeed. Whatever the cause, he's won 19 of his 24 NFL starts (regular season or playoffs) and compiled a passer rating north of 110 in 15 of those games.
Aaron Jones, GB running back: Green Bay's main ball carrier just went over 100 yards for the fourth straight week while duplicating his touchdown count (three) from an injury-marred regular season. Jones' powerful rushing scores in the wild-card round capped a couple of long drives and punctuated a short one following Dak Prescott's first interception, which initiated the Cowboys' epic collapse.
No other running back eclipsed 100 yards or rushed for multiple TDs last week. Jones led all carriers in first downs (nine), missed tackles forced (four), and rushes for 10 or more yards (four), per PFF. It doesn't seem coincidental that Jordan Love's eight play-action throws against Dallas produced six completions, 107 yards, and touchdown strikes to Romeo Doubs and Luke Musgrave.
From Week 16 through the playoff opener, the Packers averaged 270 net passing yards, 151.5 rushing yards, and 32.8 points per game to their opponents' 20.3. Their dominance resulted in the Cowboys' humiliation. Per Ben Baldwin's database, the 49ers ranked 26th this season in EPA/rush allowed, which opens the door for Jones to extend his hot streak and help Love win another shootout.
Buccaneers at Lions
Aidan Hutchinson, DET edge rusher: Hutchinson's clutch contributions in the wild-card round helped seal Detroit's first playoff win in 32 long, wearisome years. He drew a holding penalty to push the Rams out of field-goal range on the Lions' final defensive stand.
Detroit didn't score a touchdown after halftime but prevailed by a point because its defense bent without breaking. Rather than tally the decisive touchdown, the Rams settled for three field goals in as many red-zone trips. The Lions forced third-and-long situations that they proceeded to neutralize by having Hutchinson drop to help crowd Matthew Stafford's passing lanes.
When he rushed Stafford, Hutchinson was destructive, recording multiple sacks for the third game in a row. His nine pressures and awesome 34.8% pass-rush win rate led all edge rushers in the round, per PFF. His next target, gritty Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, absorbed four sacks last week while playing through ribs and ankle injuries.
Antoine Winfield Jr., TB safety: Winfield and his teammates blanked the inept Panthers in Week 18, then ended the Eagles' tailspin in the playoff opener. The Buccaneers are 6-1 since the start of December and surrendered fewer yards than the NFL average (331.6) six times in the span.
It'll be tougher to cage the Lions' offense, which failed to surpass the yardage average just once all season. In a groove, Jared Goff completed 14 of his first 15 passes against the Rams as Detroit mounted three straight touchdown drives. Giveaways sometimes blemish Goff's statline, but he didn't commit any for the second straight week.
Goff passed for 353 yards against Tampa Bay in October, a 20-6 Detroit win that was a rare matchup Winfield didn't influence. The recipient of PFF's top safety grade, Winfield either forced a fumble or intercepted a pass in nine other Bucs games. He's the top candidate to induce a costly Lions mistake.
Chiefs at Bills
Dalton Kincaid, BUF tight end: Josh Allen is hard to stop when he puts defenders on skates and connects with a multitude of pass-catchers. His favorite targets include Kincaid, the first-round rookie who led the Bills in receiving yards (76.7 per game) over the past three weeks.
Kincaid's biggest catch in his playoff debut produced a 29-yard score right after Buffalo recovered a fumble. His 20-yard grab over a Steelers safety's outstretched arm prolonged another touchdown drive. This season, Kincaid ranked third among tight ends in catch rate (80.2%) and was sixth in receiving success rate (61.5%), signifying that Allen could count on him to move the chains.
Tight ends inflicted minimal damage against the Chiefs. Collectively, they averaged 44.6 receiving yards with four touchdowns in 17 games, per Pro Football Reference. Buffalo edged Kansas City in December even though Travis Kelce outgained Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Stefon Diggs by himself. If the next guy in this rundown slows Diggs again, Kincaid will need to work to get open in the middle of the field.
L'Jarius Sneed, KC cornerback: Chiefs coach Andy Reid suggested recently that Sneed is the NFL's best cornerback. Certain numbers support the splashy claim.
Sneed gave up zero touchdowns in coverage this season, per PFF.
He ranked second in reception rate (51.9%) and second in passer rating against (55.9) among the 25 corners who were targeted at least 80 times.
In wild-card play, he allowed three catches for 29 yards on nine targets despite frequently facing Tyreek Hill, the NFL receiving leader. Sneed manhandled his former teammate at the line of scrimmage.
The Chiefs smothered the Dolphins' talented offense in the bitter cold. They picked off Tua Tagovailoa, forced four punts and three turnovers on downs, and limited Miami to a single third-down conversion on a dozen attempts.
Kansas City is 10-0 this season when opponents fail to score 20 points. Teams struggle to gain ground when Chris Jones and George Karlaftis control the trenches and Sneed and Trent McDuffie lock down either side of the field. Like Patrick Mahomes, those defensive linchpins are about to compete in a playoff road game for the first time.
Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.