1 vital question for each NFC wild-card clash
It's NFL playoff time. The Ravens and 49ers get to relax as a dozen teams duke it out on Wild Card Weekend. These questions will influence the outcomes of the NFC matchups.
(All times listed are Eastern. Find our preview of the AFC games here.)
Packers at Cowboys, Sunday at 4:30 p.m.
Will Love go shot for shot with Prescott?
Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson is the runaway MVP favorite, but maybe the choice shouldn't be so simple.
Dak Prescott consistently sparkled for Dallas, the only team that scored 500 points. His 36 passing touchdowns led the league. He ranked no lower than third in total TDs, passing yards, accuracy rate, interception percentage, and passer rating. No QB completed more big-time throws than Prescott (38), and few starters posted a superior turnover-worthy play rate (2.0%), according to PFF.
Jordan Love imitated him down the stretch. Between Weeks 11-18, Love's 70.3% completion rate and dumbfounding 18-1 TD-INT split sparked the Packers to six pivotal wins in eight games. When the dust settled, Love only trailed Prescott in passing TDs (32) and games with a 100-plus passer rating (10), per Stathead.
Supporting characters will help shape this QB shootout. Prescott's going to feed CeeDee Lamb, the NFL catch leader who averaged 100 receiving yards per game for the first time, and Tony Pollard, the dependably decent running back who gained at least 50 yards in a dozen Cowboys matchups.
Zero Packers tallied 1,000 scrimmage yards, tying the team with the balanced Ravens and putrid Patriots for fewest league-wide.
That said, five different targets (Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft, Bo Melton, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks) paced Green Bay in receiving yards over the past five weeks as Christian Watson nursed a hamstring injury. Another playmaker, Aaron Jones, just became the fourth running back this season to string together three straight 100-yard outings.
On the other side of the line, Dallas cornerback DaRon Bland snared more interceptions (nine) than Green Bay did collectively (seven). No Packer came close to equaling Defensive Player of the Year candidate Micah Parsons' 14 sacks or 24.1% pass-rush win rate.
To snap the Cowboys' 16-game home win streak, Love's confidence can't waver in his playoff debut.
Rams at Lions, Sunday at 8 p.m.
Can Detroit beat a franchise legend?
To advance in the postseason for the first time in 32 years, the Lions have to subdue their all-time passing leader. Matthew Stafford went 0-3 in the playoffs with Detroit before he was traded for Jared Goff in 2021 and swiftly raised the Lombardi Trophy.
Coincidentally, Stafford attended the same Dallas high school as Bobby Layne, the late Hall of Fame passer purported to have cursed the Lions for trading him following their 1957 NFL championship triumph. The club is 1-12 in postseason play since Layne's departure.
Curses are hooey, but drawing the Rams in the first round was a tough break. Scorching hot, L.A. won seven games from Weeks 11-18 while ranking fourth among offenses in expected points added per play, per Ben Baldwin's database. In December, Stafford's numbers glittered (295.2 yards per game, 11-2 TD-INT split), and Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp combined to eclipse 100 scrimmage yards 10 times.
The Lions proved they're a legitimate contender in 2023, posting their best point differential (plus-66) in a dozen years. A two-point conversion snafu in Dallas stopped them from setting a franchise wins record. Nonetheless, Detroit's 12 victories were more than the Browns or Texans managed in their own quests for a maiden Super Bowl appearance.
Goff struggled with ball protection, committing multiple giveaways four times from Week 11 onward. But the Lions QB got to work with three 1,000-yard playmakers (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery) and outshone Stafford statistically, setting the stage for an irresistible faceoff.
Detroit's vulnerable secondary needs Aidan Hutchinson to be disruptive. The talented young edge rusher produced five sacks in the past two weeks and ranked second behind Parsons this season in QB pressures, per PFF. Stafford, who distributes the ball quickly, absorbed a mere 11 sacks in his final seven games.
Eagles at Buccaneers, Monday at 8 p.m.
Can Philadelphia pound the ball upfield?
The Eagles beat a procession of Super Bowl hopefuls over the first few months to surge to the top of the NFL standings. Cracks promptly opened. The defense crumbled, ranking 29th in EPA/dropback and 31st in EPA/rush across December and January, and the offense coughed up 12 giveaways in that span.
Promisingly, the Eagles ranked seventh in rushing efficiency during that ugly stretch, per Baldwin's data. Jalen Hurts and 1,000-yard lead back D'Andre Swift both finished in the top 10 in rushing play success rate. Hurts' powerful sneaks helped Philadelphia convert 73.1% of fourth-down tries - the league's top mark - and rush for more first downs (8.8 per game) than any NFC foe.
The Buccaneers can stifle runners, but Philly steamrolled them in Week 3, rushing for 201 yards (Swift gained 130) and controlling possession for almost 40 minutes. When Hurts has the ball, his defense can't screw up.
The Eagles yielded more yardage this season than 25 teams. They ranked in the bottom three in passing yards allowed, scrimmage touchdowns allowed, third-down denial rate, and red-zone TD percentage. The Giants clobbered Philly's starters in Week 18 as Tampa Bay simultaneously took care of business, blanking the lowly Panthers to repeat as the NFC South champion despite Tom Brady's retirement.
The Buccaneers lean on their stars. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin - one of four receiving duos to reach 1,000 yards apiece - helped Baker Mayfield rise to 11th in QB EPA/play a year after he ranked last among qualified passers. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr.'s NFL-leading sixth forced fumble dramatically denied a Carolina score in the season finale.
Beatable at home, the Bucs' four losses there delayed their division coronation. The Eagles won five road games before their recent tailspin, and most of their top rushing and defensive performances happened to occur in hostile territory.
Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.