1 vital question for each AFC wild-card showdown
It's NFL playoff time. The Ravens and 49ers get to relax as a dozen teams duke it out on Wild Card Weekend. These questions will influence the outcomes of the AFC matchups.
(All times listed are Eastern. Find our preview of the NFC games here.)
Browns at Texans, Saturday at 4:30 p.m.
Can the rookie trump the graybeard?
At 22 and 38 years old, C.J. Stroud and Joe Flacco were the second-youngest and second-oldest quarterbacks, respectively, to fire passes this season. Only one QB this century - Baltimore's Lamar Jackson - was younger than Stroud, the marvelous Texans rookie, at the time of his playoff debut.
Stroud's productivity belies his inexperience. He topped all qualified passers in yards per game (273.9), compiled a 23-5 TD-INT split, and was the youngest of nine quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era to record a 1.0% interception percentage on at least 450 attempts, according to Stathead. The gorgeous spiral Stroud uncorked on his first snap of Week 18 for Nico Collins' 75-yard score led to the Colts' elimination.
Fresh off delivering a division title, Stroud needs to protect and move the ball against Cleveland's tough defense. Besides ranking fifth in takeaways, the Browns forced 19 more punts than any other team and only allowed points on 24.8% of drives, the NFL's stingiest rate since 2019, per Pro Football Reference. Promisingly for Houston, Collins put up two 190-yard performances after fellow deep threat Tank Dell fractured his fibula in December.
Back in the day, Flacco won 10 playoff games and a Super Bowl with the Ravens before Jackson's rise made him expendable. From 2019-22, he made 17 total starts for the Broncos and Jets, who never ranked higher than 28th in scoring. Somehow, signing him off of his couch in November revitalized the Browns.
Flacco averaged 323.2 passing yards over five starts and ranked third in the NFL in average depth of target (9.5 yards), one spot ahead of Stroud, per PFF. His aggressiveness produced 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions, including two picks in Texans territory in Week 16.
That Cleveland win summed up the freewheeling Flacco experience. He shredded Houston's secondary for 368 yards - 265 to Amari Cooper - as Stroud recovered from a concussion.
Dolphins at Chiefs, Saturday at 8 p.m.
Will either offense awaken?
Skill, flash, and dynamism abound in this blockbuster clash. Yet the offenses that Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill headline either underwhelmed throughout the season (Kansas City ranked 15th in touchdowns from scrimmage) or disappointed in big games (four playoff teams held Miami below 20 points).
Both units lost steam over time. Entering their shared Week 10 bye, the Dolphins led the NFL and the Chiefs ranked fifth in expected points added per play, according to Ben Baldwin's database. From Weeks 11-18, Miami ranked 10th and Kansas City slipped to 19th in offensive efficiency.
Miami's ceiling is higher. Hill combined with the speedy backfield tandem of Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane to score 45 touchdowns and record six of the NFL season's 10 fastest runs, per Next Gen Stats. League passing leader Tua Tagovailoa ranked fourth in quarterback EPA/play and was fifth in TD throws (29) and completion rate (69.3%).
They hung 70 points on the Broncos, but strong teams quieted the Dolphins for halves at a time. Their first seven drives against the Chiefs in Germany produced six punts, a fumble return TD, and an insurmountable deficit in the November loss. Miami got outscored 42-6 after halftime across recent humbling defeats to the Ravens and Bills.
The K.C. defense, which ranked second in sacks and never gave up a 30-point or 400-yard game, has to help Mahomes build an early lead Saturday. The Chiefs tallied as many second-half points this season (7.5 per game) as the punchless Jets.
If Mahomes stars, little else tends to matter. The Chiefs were 9-0 when his passer rating exceeded the league average (89.0) and 1-6 when accuracy issues caused his rating to crater. His burgeoning connection with rookie wideout Rashee Rice, who averaged 42 receiving yards before the bye and 80 after it, forces defenses to cover someone besides Travis Kelce.
Steelers at Bills, Monday at 4:30 p.m.
Which defense will make game-changing plays?
It's safe to assume Josh Allen, the QB leader in total touchdowns with 44, will dazzle in spurts but also botch some possessions. The Bills gunslinger was intercepted 18 times in 2023, tossed multiple picks in bad losses to the Jets and Broncos, and lost four of his seven fumbles.
Defending well led the Steelers to most of their triumphs this season. The only playoff club with a negative point differential, Pittsburgh was 6-1 when it forced multiple turnovers and 8-1 when opponents didn't reach 20 points. The defense yielded yards, ranking 21st overall, but minimized the damage by surrendering the second-fewest TDs in the red zone.
T.J. Watt's absence with an MCL sprain hurts. The Steelers' next-best defender, edge rusher Alex Highsmith, produced a dozen fewer sacks than Watt despite topping him in pass-rush win rate (18.0% to 16.9%, per PFF).
Ominously, Mike Tomlin's teams allowed an average of 42.8 points and 419.3 yards over four straight playoff defeats since 2016. Letting Allen cook could prompt another meltdown.
Defensively, Buffalo was the only team that failed to record an interception in six straight games. Trade pickup Rasul Douglas ended the skid with two picks in Week 11, then added another pair in Week 17. The Bills intercepted Tagovailoa twice last week while limiting Miami to 47 net yards after halftime, which offset Allen's three giveaways in the division clincher.
Their next task is to disrupt Najee Harris' momentum - the running back has gained 333 scrimmage yards over Pittsburgh's ongoing three-game winning streak - and fluster Mason Rudolph, who performed competently as a replacement quarterback. Rudolph's completion rate over his three starts was 74.7%, and he ranked ninth in EPA/play in that small sample.
Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.