6 pivotal storylines to follow in NFL's final week
There are 16 games left in the NFL season, and each will affect playoff seeding, the momentum of Super Bowl hopefuls, or the top of the draft order. Track these juicy storylines as Week 18 unfolds.
All eyes on Bills-Dolphins
In mid-November, the Bills' comedic loss in prime time on a Broncos kicking do-over made it unthinkable that they would rule the AFC East. Yet Buffalo has set up a winner-take-all clash for the division crown and No. 2 seed by stacking clutch wins - four in a row entering Sunday night's decider in Miami.
The Dolphins are 1-4 this season against teams in playoff contention. Humiliated twice, they allowed perfect passer ratings to Josh Allen in October and Lamar Jackson in last week's 56-19 Ravens rout. When star cornerback Jalen Ramsey missed the first Bills matchup, Allen fed Stefon Diggs for three touchdown catches and numerous huge gains.
Rock solid once Ramsey debuted, Miami's defense ranked second in expected points added per play and third in EPA/dropback from Weeks 8-16, according to Ben Baldwin's database. But Jackson's targets were left wide-open in the Week 17 fiasco, the NFL's third-worst defensive performance this season by EPA. The loss of a second key pass-rusher to a serious injury - Bradley Chubb joined Jaelan Phillips on the shelf - intensified the nightmare.
Certain improvements saved the Bills' season. They won the turnover battle in five of six weeks since the Denver debacle to move to 7-1 when that happens. They rushed for 153.2 yards per game in the span, up from 116.5 yards from Weeks 1-10. Defensively, they held the Chiefs and Cowboys to a combined 27 points over two signature December wins.
That said, losing Sunday might eliminate Buffalo. That'll happen if the Jaguars beat the Titans and Steelers reserve quarterback Mason Rudolph outduels Baltimore's Tyler Huntley. The Dolphins are playing for their first division title since 2008, the right to host multiple playoff games, and the dopamine rush that vanquishing a rival generates.
NFC seeding jumble
The 49ers own the NFC bye, but little else in the conference is settled, though we know the Cowboys, Lions, and Eagles will finish second, third, and fifth in some order. Their cumulative home record is 19-4, making the No. 2 seed extremely desirable.
Dallas can seal it by beating the Commanders on Sunday. Philadelphia would secure it with a win over the Giants and a Cowboys loss. Unless the Cowboys and Eagles both stumble, the Lions' playoff path will be uninviting. They could host Matthew Stafford's surging Rams on Wild Card Weekend and subsequently have to visit Dallas or Philly, then San Francisco to reach Super Bowl LVIII.
The final NFC wild-card berth is the Packers' to lose. Jordan Love's 67.1% completion rate and 19-3 TD-INT split in November and December reflected his rapid growth as a young starter. After cratering down the stretch, the Seahawks and Vikings need to beat the Cardinals and Lions, respectively, and hope Love gets rattled by the Bears' playmaking defense, whose 22 interceptions lead the NFL.
The NFC South title race remains dramatic. A Buccaneers loss to the lowly Panthers would allow Sunday's Falcons-Saints winner to clinch the division. Even if Tampa Bay prevails, New Orleans could snare the last wild-card spot with a win and losses by the Packers and Seahawks.
The Saints' .500 record is uninspiring, but they only lost once by double digits and have compiled the NFC's fourth-best point differential. By EPA/play, they ranked 10th in passing and fifth in defense over the past four weeks, per Baldwin's data. A strong turnover differential of plus-8 gives them a shot to fluster any opponent.
Can reigning finalists rally?
The Eagles brim with talent but lost four of five games in December to squander control of their destiny. Regardless of the Dallas-Washington result, the reigning NFC champs have to hammer the Giants to feel good as the playoffs start.
There are glaring differences between these Eagles and last year's vintage. They've freefallen from eighth in points against to 29th. They're 16th in defensive sacks (down from first in 2022), 24th in takeaways (down from fifth), and 23rd in turnover differential (down from third). Because the secondary tends to get shredded, Philadelphia's allowed more passing touchdowns (34) than every team except Washington.
Philly found ways to top the Bills, Chiefs, Cowboys, and Dolphins before the 49ers and Cowboys administered back-to-back beatdowns. The Eagles proceeded to blow fourth-quarter leads against Seattle and Arizona. They boast three 1,000-yard playmakers (A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, D'Andre Swift) and stellar offensive linemen, but Jalen Hurts was less accurate and explosive than usual during the December skid.
Concerns about the Chiefs, last year's Super Bowl winners, pertain to the 12th-ranked offense's slippage. Despite consistently driving downfield, they settled for a touchdown and six field goals in Patrick Mahomes' final outing. He'll rest against the Chargers, but a strong defensive finish would make Kansas City the first team to go 17 games without ever allowing 30 points, according to Stathead.
Stroud's finishing touch
C.J. Stroud's Texans need to beat the Colts on Saturday to reach the playoffs. They'll host a game if Indianapolis falls and the fading Titans manage to stun the Jaguars.
The surefire Offensive Rookie of the Year, Stroud's on track to join Justin Herbert, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, and Jameis Winston as 4,000-yard rookie passers. He leads that group, as well as the entire league this season, in interception percentage (1.1%). Confident and efficient, Stroud has only thrown five picks despite taking enough shots downfield to rank second in intended air yards per attempt, per Pro Football Reference.
Both he and Gardner Minshew deserve to rule the AFC South. The veteran quarterback's steadiness in relief of Anthony Richardson helped the resilient Colts go 6-2 in one-score games, the second-best record in the NFL, per Stathead. Indy is 27th in defense but withstood Jonathan Taylor's lengthy injury absences to rank 10th in points.
Avoiding disaster, the Jaguars blanked the Panthers last week to win for the first time in December and retain the division lead. The Jags improved to 9-1 when they rush for 80 yards (they're 0-6 otherwise) and 7-1 when the defense yields fewer than 360 yards (2-6 otherwise). They disappoint when Trevor Lawrence doesn't get enough support.
Who gets the No. 2 pick?
The two-win Panthers' implosion netted the Bears the first overall draft pick. The four-win teams that could get the second pick - the Commanders, Cardinals, and Patriots - host opponents of varying quality on Sunday.
Washington faces Dallas on a seven-game losing skid. Arizona's opponent, Seattle, will be desperate to avoid elimination. Falling to the beatable Jets could give New England another chance to draft a worthy successor to Tom Brady.
Reverse strength of schedule breaks ties in the draft order. The team whose opponents combined to post a worse win percentage through 18 weeks gets the better selection.
As things stand, the Commanders' easier schedule (.515 opponent win percentage) gives them the edge over the Patriots (.518) and Cardinals (.562). If the Commanders and Patriots both lose, the Falcons-Saints outcome becomes important. Since Washington played Atlanta and New England played New Orleans this season, a Falcons triumph has the potential to cost the Commanders the tiebreaker.
Personal benchmarks
Statistical milestones are in reach for an array of players.
Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts: Whoever finishes with more rushing touchdowns - both have 15 - will set a new record for quarterbacks. They’ve surpassed Cam Newton’s mark of 14 from 2011, and Hurts is the only QB besides Newton to punch in a dozen TDs in multiple seasons.
Raheem Mostert: The Dolphins running back's next touchdown from scrimmage - his 22nd - would propel him past the injured Christian McCaffrey for the league lead. Randy Moss in 2007 was the last player to score 22 TDs.
CeeDee Lamb: To steal the NFL receiving title, the Cowboys wideout needs to outgain Miami's Tyreek Hill by at least 67 yards. Lamb's already done that three times, including last weekend, by torching secondaries while Hill's productivity slumped.
Puka Nacua: The rookie receiving record will belong to Nacua if the Rams wideout tallies 29 yards against the 49ers. Nacua's season low is 26 yards, meaning he's almost certain to eclipse Bill Groman's 1,473-yard output from 1960.
Mike Evans: Laudably consistent, the Buccaneers receiver who coasted to a 10th straight 1,000-yard season currently tops the NFL with 13 touchdown catches. If Evans grabs two TDs against the Panthers, he'll establish a new personal best.
Trey Hendrickson: An eight-game sack streak increased Hendrickson's sack total to 17, a career high that ties the Bengals edge rusher with T.J. Watt for the league lead. He can spoil Watt's bid to become the first official three-time sack champ.
Brandon Aubrey: The sensational Dallas kicker, a converted pro soccer defender, is 35-for-35 on field goals as an NFL rookie. If Aubrey goes 2-for-2 in the finale, he'll match Mike Vanderjagt's perfect hit rate on 37 kicks for the 2003 Colts.
Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.