Why McCaffrey, new stars are dominating at running back
Establishing the run sparked playoff contenders to big wins last weekend. In the process, two dominant playmakers joined some exclusive company.
Christian McCaffrey's three touchdowns and 187 yards from scrimmage helped the NFC-leading 49ers trounce the lowly Cardinals. Raheem Mostert scored twice as the Dolphins shut out the Jets. They became two of eight running backs this century to tally 20 scrimmage TDs within 14 games, per Stathead.
James Cook rushed for 179 yards in the Bills' rout of the Cowboys. Kyren Williams' third 140-yard game - the NFL high in 2023 - powered a Rams triumph. Rachaad White's fourth straight 80-yard outing strengthened the Buccaneers' playoff chances. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined to gain 185 yards, which put the Lions in position to rack up 42 offensive points.
The ascent of these running backs has shaken up the NFL yardage leaderboard. Fresh faces follow McCaffrey as Week 16 gets going.
However, rushing numbers slumped league-wide this year: Teams are picking up 0.3 fewer yards per carry and 9.5 fewer yards per game compared to 2022, according to Pro Football Reference. Last season produced five 1,200-yard rushers, but only Williams is on track to join McCaffrey above that threshold.
The decline of stars is to blame. Running backs who usually pulverize defenses have been drastically less effective.
Nick Chubb's MCL tear derailed his season in September. Ankle and thumb injuries, plus his contract dispute, held back Jonathan Taylor. Derrick Henry's punchlessness in Week 15 drew attention to his slowdown.
Derrick Henry is the first player in NFL history to have at least 20 touches in a game and produce less than 15 yards from scrimmage.
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) December 17, 2023
Muted in many Raiders defeats, Josh Jacobs' ugliest stat line (nine carries for minus-two yards against Buffalo) made him the first player since 2007 to lose ground on that many attempts, per Stathead. Saquon Barkley's 194 rushes for the Giants have contributed minus-45.6 expected points, the league's worst total.
Fewer workhorses are thriving this year. The NFL carry leaders after McCaffrey - Jacobs, Henry, White, Travis Etienne, and Joe Mixon - have failed to average four yards per attempt. There are five teams whose run plays add positive expected points, per Ben Baldwin's database, and four of them either field a strong RB duo (Dolphins, Lions) or a lead back and a splendid dual-threat quarterback (Ravens, Bills).
The 49ers are the exception. They feed McCaffrey, a unique weapon, as much as possible. Great playmakers surround him, yet McCaffrey accounts for 44% of the offense's touches (301 of 685). He averaged 142.8 scrimmage yards over San Francisco's last six games - all wins - to increase his season total to 1,801.
The breadth of his accomplishments is rare. McCaffrey is the seventh running back in NFL history to record 1,000 rushing yards, 1,800 scrimmage yards, and 10 TDs from scrimmage in four different seasons, per Stathead. Five of his predecessors won an NFL MVP award. The outlier, Eric Dickerson, was a three-time runner-up.
Dynamic as a target, McCaffrey ranks second in receiving yards (4,265, trailing Marshall Faulk) and second in receiving TDs (29, trailing Austin Ekeler) through Years 1-7 of a running back's career. Keep in mind: He missed most of 2020 and 2021 due to injuries, and his seventh year isn't over yet.
Only Mostert, a 31-year-old ex-Niner, is tallying as many points this season.
Leaned on by the Dolphins during speedy platoon mate De'Von Achane's injury absences, Mostert emerged as an unstoppable finisher, punching in a dozen of his 18 rushing touchdowns from inside the five-yard line. He'll probably be the first player to rush for 20 touchdowns since 2006.
Mostert scored 14 rushing TDs over his previous eight seasons. Aging gracefully fueled his belated rise. He's the oldest lead back in the league, but 25 active running backs have more career touches than Mostert's 754.
Undrafted in 2015, Mostert returned kickoffs yet barely lined up on offense for his first few seasons. In other years, injuries minimized his snap count. Most starters absorb the punishment that Mostert has taken by their mid-20s.
Freshness is proving to be a boon. The NFL's top second-year rushers either rode the pine as rookies (Williams logged 44 touches for the Rams) or played sparingly in college (Cook got 297 touches over four seasons at Georgia behind D'Andre Swift and Zamir White). Certain veterans who've plateaued amassed major wear and tear even before they turned pro, with NCAA touch counts ranging from Henry's 619 at Alabama to Taylor's 968 at Wisconsin.
Cook has reached 100 scrimmage yards on a weekly basis since Joe Brady became Buffalo's offensive coordinator in mid-November. Williams could've ultimately topped McCaffrey in rushing yards if an ankle sprain didn't shelve him for a month. Their elusiveness led to big plays in last week's Bills and Rams victories, while Williams' 10-yard touchdown burst buried the Saints on Thursday night.
Some teams' offseason moves enabled them to run rampant.
The Lions' backfield revamp - they replaced Swift and Jamaal Williams with the physical Montgomery-Gibbs tandem - helped Detroit rise from 18th to fifth in EPA/rush. The NFL leaders in yards after contact per carry, Montgomery and Gibbs have a shot to become the sixth pair of teammates to each gain 1,000 yards in the same season.
Landing on his feet, Swift has run at a 1,000-yard pace behind the Eagles' powerful line. Swift's forerunner in the role, Miles Sanders, is rushing for almost 45 fewer yards per game after signing with the Panthers for $25.4 million over four years. The sluggishness of high earners at the position can't bode well for the upcoming free-agent class that Barkley, Jacobs, and Tony Pollard will headline for the second straight year, in addition to Henry and Swift.
The best 2023 signings - Mostert and Montgomery - earn less than 1.5% of the salary cap, per Over the Cap. Cook, Gibbs, and Williams, as well as Rachaad White of late, are outperforming their rookie contracts. McCaffrey, the lone running back who commands $16 million annually, is one of a kind, but teams evidently don't need to break the bank to find the next breakout star.
Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.