TNF player props: The keys to success for the Raiders' trip to L.A.
Last season, we rocked and rolled our way to the Super Bowl with music-themed Thursday Night Football player props, joyfully celebrating the start of a new NFL week. This year, we'll use an episode from "Must See TV" cornerstone "Seinfeld" each week to remind us that betting is supposed to be fun, even when an absurd series of events leads to a losing bet.
"Do you have a job? No. You got money? No. Do you have a woman? No. Do you have any prospects? No. Do you got anything on the horizon? Uh, no. Do you have any action at all? No. Do you have any conceivable reason for even getting up in the morning? ... I'm going to California, I've got the bug." - Kramer trying to convince George to come to Los Angeles with him.
In the third season finale of "Seinfeld," the group argues about their spare keys because Kramer misused the power of access to Jerry's apartment. As a result of the conflict, Kramer takes off for Los Angeles, yearning for more out of life.
"The Keys"
The Rams are all employed, they're probably good for money, and their relationships are probably fine. However, without three stars and with a dearth of draft picks, they don't have any prospects or anything on the horizon, and their games involve very little action. Meanwhile, the Raiders have the playoff bug after three straight wins.
Josh Jacobs looked ready to pack his bags after falling down the depth chart in the preseason. In Week 4, though, the Raiders gave Derek Carr's spare keys to the offense to Jacobs. They ramped up his snap count from 65% to 80%, and they handed him the ball more than 20 times for the first time all season.
Jacobs has cashed the over in six of nine games since, and he now leads the league in rushing. However, those teams rank 20th, 27th, 13th, 28th, and 32nd in yards per carry (YPC) allowed. Meanwhile, he's been held under 80 yards against the Colts (7th), Jaguars (8th), and Saints (18th, but best run defense last season).
Jacobs' yardage total for this game is the highest of the season despite the Rams ranking fourth in opponents' YPC. Plus, the Rams are fourth worst in opponents' passer rating.
After seeing Geno Smith throw for 367 yards with a 71.7% pass completion, Carr should be excited to drop back without the threat of Aaron Donald swallowing him whole. He'll chop up the Rams' defense like a Ginsu knife, limiting Jacobs.
Pick: Josh Jacobs under 87.5 rush yards
A TD that's definitely going to happen
In his quest to become an actor in Hollywood, Kramer wasted no time in getting a guest role on the 90's sitcom "Murphy Brown." One of the running gags on that show was how quickly Murphy disposed of her assistants. The Rams are running through quarterbacks in a similarly expeditious fashion, so it's nearly impossible to make a case for a valuable bet on anyone to score for Los Angeles at short odds. It's the Raiders that have one of the league's go-to scorers.
Davante Adams is tied for first in receiving touchdowns. With the Rams' pass defense vulnerable, we shouldn't be as coy as Newman was in breaking Kramer's departure to Jerry. Adams has 12 touchdowns in 12 games, scoring in eight of those (66%). That small sample size suggests this line should be around -200. While that's an exaggeration, the matchup sets up well for Adams to add to his count.
Pick: Davante Adams anytime touchdown (bet up to -115)
A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does
The group's argument over the spare keys is just as much of a head-shaker as the Rams' personnel usage on offense.
L.A. did move the ball at times against the Seahawks, and the Raiders' defense is dead last in the league in opponents' passer rating. Whether it's John Wolford, Bryce Perkins, or Baker Mayfield, there should be some room in Vegas' secondary. L.A.'s second tight end, Brycen Hopkins, has had anywhere from six to 22 snaps since the Rams' Week 8 bye. He has just two catches on only five targets in that time, but that's why he's 12-1 at theScore Bet. So, even though we'd be as surprised to see him score as Jerry is to find Kramer in his bathtub, we'll take a shot that he's something of a secret weapon in the red zone.
Pick: Brycen Hopkins anytime touchdown (+1200)
How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.