NFL Divisional Weekend teaser: Who do we pair the Bills with?
The front end looked a little shaky, but last week's teaser got home with ease. We had to get creative by teasing the Raiders through the touchdown zone to +11.5, which was the difference between winning that leg and losing a straight bet on Las Vegas. With that in the bag, we joined the betting universe on the Buccaneers teaser leg, and in a rare twist, everything went smoothly for a sweat-free win.
We had to stretch our weekly premise to find the Raiders last week, and that was with six games to choose from. As we whittle our way down to four games this week, it's just as difficult to find a viable duo that makes mathematical sense.
Not all teaser legs are created equal. The biggest mistake novice bettors make is teasing through zero because they're wasting valuable price points on a number the game won't land on - a tie. So, how can we maximize the six-point move? How can we get what we're paying for at -270 per leg?
The conversation actually starts with the last matchup on the board between the Bills and Chiefs. On the surface, Buffalo +2.5 getting teased to +8.5 is by far the best number move available, on one condition: If the alternative point spread market offers Bills +8.5 at -275 or worse - as it is at Barstool Sportsbook - it's worth making Buffalo +8.5 the core of your teaser this week.
For example, Barstool Sportsbook offers Bills +8.5 at -305, but obviously, the -270 leg of a teaser would be better value. If the price ever moved to -270, Buffalo would be worth a standalone bet at +8.5.
However, if we have to use a teaser to get the -270 price on the Bills +8.5, we need a second leg, and we'll have to dig into our teaser basket to find one.
|CIN@TEN||TEN -3.5||CIN +9.5|
|SF@GB||GB -5.5||SF +11.5|
|LAR@TB||TB -3||LAR +9|
|BUF@KC||KC -2.5||BUF +8.5|
The Titans have made the slightest of cameo appearances at -4, and if that happens again, the Bengals +10 becomes a contender to pair with Buffalo. However, that seems unlikely with Cincinnati taking money at +3.5, and there's no value to capturing +9.5.
The Packers moneyline hovers around -230 right now, so if you like them to win, there's no reason to wait around for the line to move past -6 just so you can get Green Bay outright at -270. On the other hand, like our Bengals leg from a week ago, we can push the 49ers to +11.5. It isn't worth the trouble waiting for that move just to get +12 with a teaser leg.
The Rams and Bucs have settled in at Tampa -3, and while we're definitely not teasing through zero, I'm not interested in spending -270 to take Los Angeles to +9 since we might be able to get the Rams at +3.5 later in the week for near -110.
In summation, sometimes there just isn't a good teaser to make - especially when two of the four contests in a weekend don't have teaser-friendly spreads. The best one here is BUF +8.5/SF +11.5. However, if we see the Bills +8.5 offered at -275 or better later in the week, you could take that on its own or parlay it with the Packers moneyline for a bet at nearly even money.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.