NFL playoff stat leader odds: Fournette, Kupp among best bets to pace fields

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On Thursday, we broke down the best bets to lead Wild Card Weekend in passing, rushing, and receiving yards. This time, we're finding values to lead the entire postseason, which introduces a key element into the hunt for value.

While per-game totals are still crucial, betting on a player whose team makes a deep run is as important, if not more so, than targeting high-impact stars. If, say, Aaron Rodgers throws for 350 yards per contest but the Packers lose in the NFC Championship Game, he's a worse bet than a wild-card passer with a modest 250-yard average whose team goes all the way.

With that in mind, here are the best value bets to lead the NFL postseason in each of the main statistical categories. (All odds listed are 50-1 or shorter.)

Most passing yards

PLAYER ODDS
Patrick Mahomes +225
Tom Brady +275
Matthew Stafford +800
Joe Burrow +800
Dak Prescott +800
Josh Allen +800
Aaron Rodgers +1000
Kyler Murray +2500
Ryan Tannehill +2800
Jimmy Garoppolo +2800
Derek Carr +4000
Mac Jones +5000

It should come as no surprise to see Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady - the two passing leaders from last year's postseason - with the shortest odds this year. At these prices, I'd much rather bet their respective teams to win the conference than to hope for a stellar run in fewer games from either quarterback.

The Rams are among my best bets to win the Super Bowl, so naturally, I'm high on Matthew Stafford's chances to lead this market, as well. He's plenty qualified to do so - he finished the regular season ranked third in passing yards (4,886) and yards per completion (12.1), and he's already shown success against the Cardinals (283.5 YPG), Packers (302), and Buccaneers (343) this year.

I'm also a believer in Mac Jones at this price, which is mostly tied to the Patriots' upside as a Super Bowl long shot. It's not as if we haven't seen Jones succeed through the air, either. If he can average 250 yards - a mark he bested in seven games this season - amid a deep playoff run, that should be enough. Why not have a go at a distant long-shot price?

Best values: Matthew Stafford (+800), Mac Jones (+5000)

Most rushing yards

PLAYER ODDS
Derrick Henry +600
Leonard Fournette +700
Joe Mixon +800
Darrel Williams +1000
Aaron Jones +1000
Ezekiel Elliott +1100
Elijah Mitchell +1200
Devin Singletary +1400
A.J. Dillon +1400
Sony Michel +1800
Damien Harris +2000
Josh Jacobs +2500
D'Onta Foreman +2500
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +2500
Cam Akers +2500
James Conner +3000
Jerick McKinnon +3500
Josh Allen +4000
Dak Prescott +4000
Chase Edmonds +4000
Ronald Jones +4000
Najee Harris +4000
Kyler Murray +4000
Miles Sanders +4000
Jeff Wilson +5000
Jalen Hurts +5000
Ryan Tannehill +5000
Tony Pollard +5000
Le'Veon Bell +5000
Rhamondre Stevenson +5000

Historically, this market has been a lot more about opportunity than efficiency. Since 2012, every postseason leading rusher has played at least three games, and all but one had at least 60 carries. That heavily suggests backing a player with the potential for 20-plus carries per contest and a trip to the Super Bowl, or the conference title game for a wild-card team.

Derrick Henry will get some love from casual bettors, but if you like the Titans' chances to play three games, you're better off betting their futures than backing a rusher coming off foot surgery. Leonard Fournette has paced this market in two of the last four seasons and isn't a bad bet at this price, especially with serious potential for a four-game run.

The best value on the board, though, is Damien Harris. The Patriots' leading rusher logged 100-plus yards in each of his previous matchups with the Bills, whom he'll face this week, and he'd likely see the Titans' subpar rush defense in the following week. The path is there for massive yardage totals for Harris if you can stomach the risk on New England's title path.

Best values: Leonard Fournette (+700), Damien Harris (+2000)

Most receiving yards

PLAYER ODDS
Tyreek Hill +800
Travis Kelce +800
Davante Adams +800
Cooper Kupp +800
Stefon Diggs +1000
Mike Evans +1200
Deebo Samuel +1200
Ja'Marr Chase +1400
A.J. Brown +2000
Rob Gronkowski +2000
CeeDee Lamb +2000
Amari Cooper +2500
George Kittle +2500
Tee Higgins +2500
Brandon Aiyuk +2500
Odell Beckham +3500
Cole Beasley +3500
Cedrick Wilson +3500
Allen Lazard +4000
A.J. Green +4000
Jakobi Meyers +4000
Van Jefferson +4000
Hunter Renfrow +4000
Diontae Johnson +4000
Darren Waller +4000
Julio Jones +4000
Christian Kirk +4000
Tyler Boyd +5000
Gabriel Davis +5000
Emmanuel Sanders +5000
Devonta Smith +5000
Marquez Valdes-Scantling +5000
Dallas Goedert +5000
Chase Claypool +5000
Byron Pringle +5000

This is easily the most volatile market of the three, and it's also the least tied to a deep run: Two of the last eight postseason receiving leaders played in just two games, which opens up the field quite a bit when looking for long-shot values.

Much of this does come down to opportunity, though. If you like the Cowboys to go on a run (as I do), there's value on CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper at long odds. A long-shot run by the Raiders or Steelers likely means big games from Diontae Johnson and Hunter Renfrow, respectively, which could be enough to carry their yardage total even without a full title run.

Still, my money is on Cooper Kupp, who is miraculously tied with three other players as frontrunners despite leading the NFL in receiving yards per contest (114.5) by a country mile. He torched the Cardinals for 123 yards in Week 14 and will be a fulcrum of the Rams' attack for as long as they stay alive in the postseason. If that's for three or four games, his stat line will be tough to beat.

Best values: Cooper Kupp (+800), CeeDee Lamb (+2000)

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.

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NFL playoff stat leader odds: Fournette, Kupp among best bets to pace fields
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