10 takeaways from NFL Week 11

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines the significance of them moving forward.

Who is the AFC's best team?

If you intend to answer that question, you better do it quickly. The consensus take could change by next week. That's just how this season has gone in the helter-skelter AFC.

The Buffalo Bills? They came into Week 11 ranked first overall in DVOA, with the league's most efficient defense. Then the Indianapolis Colts stuffed them into a trash can on their home turf. (More on that in a bit.)

The Tennessee Titans? Officially, they still have the conference's best record at 8-3. They've beaten the Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, and New Orleans Saints in succession. But they also just lost at home to the hapless Houston Texans, and one of their other losses came against the New York Jets. Don't ask me to explain how all of that is possible.

The Baltimore Ravens? Sure, they won a tough road game without quarterback Lamar Jackson (more on that in a bit, too), but they also lost their previous contest to the 3-7 Miami Dolphins.

The Kansas City Chiefs? They're finally starting to look like what we thought they were, so maybe. The New England Patriots? They've won five straight and look as complete as any team in the league. The conference is a logjam - 10 of its 16 teams have winning records, and 12 are within 2.5 games of the Titans for the AFC's best record.

The bottom line: No one has any idea. The Pats host the Titans next week, so that ought to provide some clarity. At least until the week after that.

Depleted Cardinals impress again

The Arizona Cardinals have now played three games without QB Kyler Murray and wideout DeAndre Hopkins. They've won two of them, the latest being Sunday's takedown of the scuffling Seattle Seahawks on the road.

The Cardinals' defense, which came in ranked second in DVOA and third in EPA/play, is unquestionably legit. But QB Colt McCoy not only avoided the deep-in-his-own-territory turnovers that doomed last week's loss to the Carolina Panthers, he genuinely commanded the Cardinals up the field for a game-winning touchdown to put the game away late.

With Thanksgiving coming up, the Cardinals have lots to be grateful for. Their bye is next weekend, which means Murray and Hopkins have an extra week to heal. Arizona also now has the NFC's top record all to itself and it's 4-0 against the NFC West, with road wins against the entirety of the division.

The Bills' shakiness is impossible to ignore

Buffalo's status as the league's most efficient team seemed tenuous due to quarterback Josh Allen's regression, even if he's not quite the "uh-oh" waiting to happen that he was in his first two NFL seasons. Well, that and the Bills lost to the dang Jacksonville Jaguars two weeks ago.

Buffalo's defense, however, had been consistently good. But after getting thumped so thoroughly by the Colts, it's become hard not to notice the Bills have been feasting on bad teams:

• Combined record of the four teams Buffalo has lost to: 20-19-1 (.513)
• Combined record of the six teams Buffalo has beaten: 23-40 (.365)

The Chiefs are the only team with a winning record that the Bills have defeated, and that was back in Week 5 when Kansas City was undoubtedly going through a slump. The Bills have had the highest variance in the league. Their past schedule entering Week 11 had been the league's easiest, according to Football Outsiders. Their future slate, which begins with a quick-turnaround road game at the Saints on Thanksgiving, is ranked No. 11. It includes two dates with the Patriots by Dec. 26 plus a trip to Tampa to play the Buccaneers.

We ought to know a heckuva lot more about who the Bills really are soon enough.

Vikings win a close one

The Minnesota Vikings have played nine one-possession games this season. Their habit had been to lose those contests, but for the second straight week, they came out on top - this time against the Green Bay Packers after Aaron Rodgers appeared to cut their hearts out yet again.

Rodgers brought the Packers back from 16-3 down - blowing leads has been another Vikings speciality this season - but for once, it was Rodgers who left too much time for Kirk Cousins.

A Darnell Savage Jr. interception was (rightly) ruled a drop, and Cousins proceeded to march the Vikings into the red zone in a matter of seconds. He then took a pair of knees to prevent Rodgers from getting his mitts on the ball again.

Head coach Mike Zimmer's seat had been getting warm, but he deserves a lot of credit for that clock management. And guess what? Greg Joseph didn't miss the game-ending field goal - a victory in itself for Minnesota.

At 5-5, the Vikings - just like that - are sitting in a playoff position in the NFC.

Here come the Colts?

After starting the season 1-4 and no doubt feeling some buyer's remorse for its acquisition of quarterback Carson Wentz, Indianapolis just hammered the Bills to improve to 6-5. The Colts are now in the thick of that indecipherable AFC playoff race.

Jonathan Taylor's sensational season-long performance demanded everyone's attention last week. All the running back did against Buffalo was score five more touchdowns (four rushing, one receiving) and rush for a season-high 185 yards. Taylor totaled 204 yards from scrimmage and now has 100 or more scrimmage yards and a rushing TD in eight straight contests, a feat only Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson has accomplished in league history. Taylor also leads the NFL with 1,122 rushing yards with six games to play.

Like, woah:

Taylor's success - particularly on early downs, on which Indy posted an EPA/play of 0.24 against Buffalo - prevents Wentz from having to press and make crazy hero ball mistakes. But with home dates against the Bucs and Patriots on tap in the next four weeks, it gets tougher from here.

Ravens win another close one without Lamar

Baltimore has been playing with fire for most of the season. Four of its six victories entering Week 11 had been fourth-quarter comebacks won by a total of nine points. Make that five comebacks by a total of 12 points, only this one didn't involve QB Lamar Jackson, who missed Sunday's win at the Chicago Bears because of a non-COVID-19 illness.

The Ravens won this one with Tyler Huntley, who went undrafted out of Utah in 2020 and told NFL Network's Stacey Dales he only found out he was getting the launch codes on his way to the team bus Sunday morning.

It wasn't pretty: Baltimore nearly lost after surrendering a 49-yard touchdown pass from Andy Dalton to Marquise Goodwin on fourth-and-11. But Huntley led two scoring drives in the last four minutes, and he even completed three of four passes for 56 yards (with help from a defensive pass interference penalty) to march Baltimore to the game-winner in less than a minute.

It's not sustainable, but it doesn't have to be. Jackson presumably will be back when the Ravens host the Cleveland Browns next Sunday night. What's important is that Baltimore managed to win again and remain in first place in the tightly packed AFC North.

Eagles pound it out again

The Philadelphia Eagles are another team that was seemingly left for dead a month ago but now finds itself competing for a playoff spot.

OK, fine; the Saints didn't have their starting QB, top wideout, top running back, or both of their starting offensive tackles, but still. Philly's offensive line dominated the Saints' D-line, which came in ranked second in rush EPA/play while also having allowed a league-best 72.9 yards per game. All told, the Eagles rushed for 242 yards on 50 carries, with QB Jalen Hurts posting a terrific EPA/play of 0.41 on rushes.

They also won for the third time in four contests since abandoning an approach that had called for them to barely run the ball. Philadelphia's next five games include two matchups each with Washington and the New York Giants, plus a visit to the hapless Jets (and a Week 14 bye mixed in). In a season where anything seems possible, everything seems possible right now for Philly.

Has Washington found a winning formula?

The Washington Football Team followed last week's upset of the Bucs by winning the Ron Rivera-Cam Newton Bowl on the road in Charlotte.

Like the Eagles, Washington did it by placing more emphasis on its running game to make life a bit easier for QB Taylor Heinicke. Washington piled up 190 yards on the ground and picked up more first downs by running the ball (12) than passing (10). And the team did it against one of the league's top defenses.

Heinicke made plays when he had to, with Terry McLaurin hauling in five catches on seven targets for 103 yards and a TD. Heinicke was 5-for-6 with two TD passes against the blitz, per Next Gen Stats, and converted a crucial fourth-and-3 to set up a go-ahead field goal despite this ...

Washington closes out the season with five straight games against the NFC East. But suddenly, its upcoming matchups against the Seahawks and Las Vegas Raiders also seem winnable.

Mayfield isn't helping his own cause

Baker Mayfield deserves to be commended for his toughness. His game generally has its limitations, but his insistence on playing through a variety of injuries certainly isn't helping him now that he's eligible for a potentially lucrative second contract.

The Browns eked out a close win against the Detroit Lions, but Mayfield threw a pair of awful picks and missed a bunch of open receivers. His only TD pass was a dump-off in the flat to running back Nick Chubb. His EPA/dropback was a dreadful minus-0.08. It's a problem, and Mayfield, who skipped his mandatory postgame media session, seems to know it.

It might be best for Cleveland to hand Case Keenum the wheel next Sunday night at the Ravens, if only to give Mayfield some time to get healthy, especially with the bye coming the week after that.

Kansas City takes center stage ... with defense

The Chiefs' defense was historically bad early in the season. But Kansas City has now won four in a row, and its defense is more than holding its own.

Dallas came in with the league's second-most efficient pass offense, but the Chiefs kept the Cowboys out of the end zone and limited Dak Prescott to a minus-0.29 EPA/dropback.

The Chiefs haven't allowed more than 17 points in a contest during their four-game winning streak. The AFC might indeed be wide-open, but if KC can keep playing that kind of defense, it might wind up becoming the conference favorite again by default.

Dom Cosentino is a senior features writer at theScore.