Jets-Colts best bets: Can Mike White keep playing Cinderella?
A combined 5-10 record won't have many fans counting down the hours until the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts meet at Lucas Oil Stadium on Thursday night. Still, football historians will look back fondly on some of the past meetings between these two franchises.
This might not be one for the history books, but the Colts' desperation mixed with the sudden cult hero status of Mike White makes this a better game than anticipated. Here's how we're betting Jets-Colts:
C Jackson Cowart: Michael Carter under 49.5 rushing yards
For all of the attention on White after the quarterback's 405-yard outburst in last week's win over the Bengals, Jets rookie running back Michael Carter also turned heads with 15 rushes for a career-high 77 yards and a score. It was the first time Carter rushed for more than 40 yards in his five games as New York's starting tailback, and he'll be hard-pressed to repeat his breakout performance Thursday.
The Colts enter Week 9 ranked No. 1 in run defense DVOA and No. 8 in yards allowed per carry (4.0), and they're coming off a game in which they held superstar Derrick Henry to a season-low 68 yards on 2.4 yards per rush. The better way to attack this Indianapolis defense is through the air, where it's a modest 20th in pass defense DVOA with the fifth-highest passer rating allowed (103.9) through eight weeks. And with the way White looked in his first career start, he's earned the right to pick on the Colts' beleaguered secondary time and time again.
This isn't to say Carter won't make an impact in this one - he's been targeted 23 times for 162 receiving yards in the last two weeks. But the matchup and likely game script for Thursday's affair point to a slow day on the ground for the rookie rusher.
Alex Moretto: Colts -10.5
It's not every day you see a 3-5 team laying double digits, but this is a statement game for Indianapolis. Coming off their second overtime loss of the season, the muddled AFC standings and Derrick Henry's injury have kept the Colts comfortably alive in the playoff hunt - now can they take advantage? The underlying metrics have been really impressive during this 3-2 run, and they're honestly very unlucky not to be 5-0 over this stretch. I suspect they'll take those frustrations out Thursday night.
This is a horrible spot for White and the Jets - almost as bad as the one Cincinnati was in last week - after coming off a thrilling win against the Bengals last Sunday. As impressive as the victory was, it's a tough ask for them to repeat that performance just four days later on the road in prime time. Playing away from home is an entirely different beast in this league, and White is about to learn the hard way.
As Jackson mentioned, the Colts are stout against the run. That's going to place added pressure on White to make plays through the air against an opportunistic Indianapolis secondary. The Colts also happen to have a punishing ground game, which they'll put to use, unlike the Bengals, who inexplicably ran just 15 times last week and were still covering the -10.5 spread at points in the game.
Look for Indianapolis to place White in some uncomfortable situations on the road here, forcing turnovers and dominating the possession battle. Meanwhile, the Colts have averaged 28.8 points per game over the last five weeks and will continue to have their way on offense against a Jets defense that's barely given off the illusion of competence this season. Indianapolis wins in a runaway here as it creeps back toward the .500 mark.
Matt Russell: Colts -6 (1st half)
Laying double digits in the NFL is the last thing I want to do, on principle. However, this is a brutal spot for the Jets to get up and ready for. This isn't a franchise known for handling success well.
Since I don't want to be vulnerable to White and Braxton Berrios connecting on a late touchdown to make the score respectable, I'd rather bet the Colts to come out with some extra energy in a prime-time game at home. They'll get a quick touchdown as part of Frank Reich's early game script, and Carson Wentz won't have to force anything in the first half. Anything under a touchdown is worth a look here in a game I otherwise don't want either side on.