Colts-49ers best bets: How we're approaching Sunday Night Football
The San Francisco 49ers come out of the bye with some ground to make up in the NFC playoff picture and host an Indianapolis Colts team facing the same situation in the AFC South. It's Carson Wentz vs. Jimmy Garoppolo on prime time - let's go!
Here's how we're betting Colts-49ers:
C Jackson Cowart: Garoppolo over 202.5 passing yards
It's become trendy to bash Garoppolo as the 49ers' starting quarterback, but this line is simply too low. The eight-year veteran has surpassed this mark in 12 of the last 15 games he's finished - averaging 184.7 yards in the other three - and was on pace for over 300 yards in Week 4 before leaving halfway through with an injury.
He's back under center in Week 7 against a Colts defense that has allowed four of six opposing QBs to throw for at least 240 yards this season, with the other two posting 197 and 199 yards. Even beleaguered Texans rookie Davis Mills threw for 243 yards last week against Indianapolis' defense, which is still battling through myriad injuries on all three levels. There's always a risk Garoppolo doesn't finish this game, but if he does, he should surpass this yardage total comfortably.
Alex Moretto: Pittman over 48.5 receiving yards
This is a gift. Pittman had a quieter game last Sunday, and as a result, we're getting a drastically suppressed total this week, dropping from the mid-60s to below 50. The matchup is a bit tougher, sure, but he has two things going for him he didn't have last week: a better game script, and no T.Y. Hilton.
I'm on 49ers -4 as well, so I expect the Colts to have to throw the ball with regularity here. When they do, Pittman is going to be the focal point. Hilton's return from injury last week significantly cut into Pittman's target share, but it was short-lived as Hilton will miss this game with a quad injury. Parris Campbell is also out. The pair combined for 131 of Wentz's 223 yards last week and just shy of 50% of his total completions.
Wentz only attempted 20 passes in a blowout win last week, by far his lowest tally of the season. He's had at least 31 in every other start this season, and that's more in line with what we should expect here. A thinning depth chart plus an increase in passing volume will result in a bounce-back game for Pittman, who averaged 84.8 yards per game and went over this number in each of his last four contests before a quiet Week 6.
Matt Russell: Colts +4
This game is my upset of the week. San Fran can't turn opponents over, and I will reiterate that Wentz has turned the ball over just twice in six games this season. Ultimately, he's been turnover-free since Week 2.
The Colts get their best player back here in Quenton Nelson, while the 49ers' injury report is littered with interior defensive lineman. The play-calling of Frank Reich, and the ball-control style of the league's most underrated running back, Jonathan Taylor, will allow the Colts to keep this close, if not win it outright.