NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, tips, and bets to consider
We got a head start on the post-draft NFL market, covering some of our favorite rookie prop bets. Now let's dive into the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds to see where there's some value.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| QB Kyler Murray | 2-1 |
| RB Josh Jacobs | 13-2 |
| QB Dwayne Haskins | 10-1 |
| WR Mecole Hardman | 16-1 |
| RB David Montgomery | 18-1 |
| WR Deebo Samuel | 20-1 |
| RB Miles Sanders | 20-1 |
| RB Darrell Henderson | 20-1 |
| WR Parris Campbell | 20-1 |
| WR A.J. Brown | 20-1 |
| WR Andy Isabella | 25-1 |
| WR D.K. Metcalf | 25-1 |
| WR Marquise Brown | 25-1 |
| QB Daniel Jones | 25-1 |
| WR N'Keal Harry | 25-1 |
| TE T.J. Hockenson | 25-1 |
| QB Will Grier | 25-1 |
| QB Drew Lock | 30-1 |
| RB Alexander Mattison | 30-1 |
| TE Noah Fant | 35-1 |
| WR Hakeem Butler | 40-1 |
| RB Damien Harris | 50-1 |
| RB Justice Hill | 50-1 |
| WR Jalen Hurd | 50-1 |
| TE Irv Smith | 75-1 |
| QB Ryan Finley | 75-1 |
| RB Bryce Love | 80-1 |
| RB Devin Singletary | 80-1 |
| WR Diontae Johnson | 100-1 |
| WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 100-1 |
| TE Jace Sternberger | 100-1 |
| QB Jarrett Stidham | 100-1 |
What history tells us
There isn't a specific pattern that points to an early edge. The Offensive Rookie of the Year has been pretty evenly distributed over the last decade, with four running backs, four quarterbacks, and two wide receivers taking home the award.
Plenty of long shots (Odell Beckham Jr. at 25-1 and Dak Prescott at 500-1) and favorites (most notably, Saquon Barkley at 2-1) have won recently. Plug in a handful of mid-tier players between 4-1 and 8-1 odds (Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Sam Bradford, and Eddie Lacy), and projecting the award has become a crapshoot.
Only one tight end has nabbed the honors, so Hockenson, Fant, and Smith don't seem like great options. But buyer beware if you're planning to fade the position entirely: The game, it's a changin'.
Hockenson, specifically, might be the closest young talent to the next Rob Gronkowski, and he's expected to be a receiving-first tight end. The Iowa standout could put up huge numbers and see a high target volume in the Detroit Lions' offense. So don't be so quick to look past all tight ends.
Bets to consider
Kyler Murray (2-1)
Even in such a deep field, Murray at this price should be appealing. Whether you believe he'll become the savior for a struggling Arizona Cardinals franchise doesn't matter. He's automatically ahead of his competition because Murray will start immediately under center.
If he stays healthy, the 2019 first overall pick will get a full season to pad his stats both through the air and on the ground, and throwing often while playing from behind will increase his production, too. Murray is a versatile quarterback who's tailor-made to succeed in new head coach Kliff Kingsbury's system.
Oh, and the media hype won't hurt, either.
Marquise Brown (25-1)
From one Brown to another, the Baltimore Ravens moved on from veteran deep threat John Brown in the offseason and gave quarterback Lamar Jackson a new, younger vertical weapon after drafting "Hollywood" Brown. Jackson's deep throwing wasn't great during his seven starts as a rookie, but he was given plenty of play-action opportunities.
Baltimore's offense is run heavy, but Brown could still rack up huge plays while facing limited competition at wide receiver.
Justice Hill (50-1)
Yes, it's a partial cop-out highlighting two Ravens rookies. But there isn't a better NFL system for the former Oklahoma State standout, especially while playing alongside Jackson on the read option.
"Hill loves to cut up the backside and make the contain man miss, and his electric quickness is more than most unblocked defenders can handle when they’re also worried about a quarterback keep on the read option," said The Draft Network's Benjamin Solak, who spoke to theScore on Friday. "Hill will have plenty of concepts in which defenders are frozen by the threat of Lamar Jackson’s run, which will open up wider lanes, make his decisions easy, and maximize his space ability."
Diontae Johnson (100-1)
Johnson is the most enticing long shot on the board. The unheralded receiver out of Toledo could earn immediate playing time after the Pittsburgh Steelers shipped out Antonio Brown, paving the way for another pass-catcher to get more targets.
Johnson caught the attention of Pro Football Focus, which ranked him as a Top 10 Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.