Fantasy: 5 biggest fallers after free agency
After a busy week of trades and free-agent signings, the focus is on players who joined new teams and how those changes will impact their fantasy values.
Here's our early analysis on:
And on these trades, which shook up the landscape:
It all resulted in a ton of fantasy updates:
And a breakdown of fantasy risers based on the moves:
So, with all of those items already covered, let's take a look at five players who weren't free agents this year but still saw their fantasy stocks drop significantly over the last week.
Jerick McKinnon, 49ers
When McKinnon inked a deal with the 49ers last offseason, it was supposed to let him show he could serve as a true lead back in the NFL.
However, a torn ACL ended McKinnon's season before it even began and allowed undrafted free agent Matt Breida to shine in a Kyle Shanahan offense that systematically makes stars out of its running backs.
Shanahan had already admitted late last season that McKinnon was facing the reality of sharing the backfield in 2019. Then, general manager John Lynch dipped into the free-agent pool and reunited Tevin Coleman with Shanahan, his former offensive coordinator in Atlanta.
Whether you believe in Coleman's talent or not, his best season came under Shanahan's tutelage in 2016, when the young back accumulated 941 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns over 13 games. Coleman will surely have a role in San Fran's offense.
Meanwhile, questions about McKinnon's durability existed prior to last season, and the Coleman signing shows the 49ers likely share those concerns.
So, with the team's running-back meeting room short on chairs, McKinnon’s chances of proving he can be a workhorse are almost certainly gone, lowering his fantasy ceiling to a fringe RB2 level, with his most likely outcome being RB3 status.
Eric Ebron, Colts
Last year, I made a bold prediction that Ebron could shock the world with double-digit touchdowns and a top-five fantasy finish at tight end. He ended up finding the end zone a whopping 14 times in his first season with the Colts, but the outlook isn't as hopeful this year.
Indy's signing of Devin Funchess drew the ire of the football community, as many believe $13 million is too much for a receiver who was essentially benched halfway through 2018 by the Panthers. Regardless, the fantasy community should be celebrating the long-overdue arrival of a viable second receiver for Andrew Luck - unless you're heavily invested in Ebron’s future.
One reason for Ebron's soaring value last year was the absence of a secondary receiving threat behind T.Y. Hilton. Chester Rogers, Ryan Grant, Zach Pascal, and Dontrelle Inman all failed to crack the 500-yard mark, and Ebron filled the void with 110 targets, 66 receptions, and 750 yards, trailing only Hilton in each category.
Funchess, who profiled as a more of a tight end coming out of college with his 6-foot-4, 225-pound frame, now essentially gives the Colts another Ebron out wide.
Funchess' per-game averages over 2017 and the first six games of 2018 - before his playing time was reduced - project out to a 67-catch, 883-yard, eight-touchdown campaign. Those numbers would have made him a low-end WR2 in all fantasy formats last season, and now he’ll be playing with a more accurate quarterback in Luck.
Ebron’s touchdown scoring was also due to regress anyway, and Funchess is an obvious candidate to siphon away red-zone looks.
Finally, the Colts' increased effectiveness running the ball behind their upgraded offensive line raises a slight concern that Luck’s passing attempts could dip as the team spends more time icing away fourth quarters thanks to positive game scripts.
In the post-free-agency update to my 2019 fantasy rankings, Ebron remains a top-10 TE option, though he dropped from TE4 to TE7, below Evan Engram, O.J. Howard, and Hunter Henry. He could tumble further if Rob Gronkowski puts off retirement.
Gus Edwards, Ravens
Heading into this offseason, Edwards was in a similar situation to Chiefs running back Damien Williams. He'd been identified by the Ravens as their No. 1 back, but with a promise of more competition being added through free agency or the draft. Williams then made our risers list after veteran Carlos Hyde was the only rusher brought in by the Chiefs during free agency, but Edwards wasn’t as lucky.
Instead, Mark Ingram left the comfort of the high-scoring Saints offense, where he was forced to share the backfield with Alvin Kamara in recent years, to join the Ravens, who can offer a potentially massive workload in their run-heavy attack championed by quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Unlike Hyde, Ingram's enjoyed several years of top-end fantasy production. He recorded more than 1,300 yards from scrimmage and at least 10 touchdowns in both 2016 and 2017, even as Kamara broke out in the latter year. And following his four-game suspension to start last season, Ingram was a top-20 fantasy running back over his final 12 games.
Despite being six years older than Edwards, Ingram is a better version of his 23-year-old teammate and offers underappreciated receiving skills. Baltimore didn’t throw to its backs much in 2018, but that could change with Ingram in the system.
There’s also Kenneth Dixon to contend with - a more versatile back and a more natural complement to Ingram - which could push the one-dimensional Edwards further down the depth chart.
Fantasy owners who rode the undrafted free agent turned surprising fantasy star to a title last year will always have fond memories of his late-season performances, but barring an Ingram injury, the Gus Edwards' fantasy era is over.
Derrius Guice, Redskins
No matter how optimistic Guice is about the Redskins re-signing fellow rusher Adrian Peterson, it’s bad news for his 2019 fantasy production.
After going under the knife for a torn ACL last season, Guice required three additional surgeries to clear up an infection, which pushed his recovery timeline back a few months. His availability for OTAs is in doubt, though he should be ready for training camp.
Peterson is an insurance policy in case Guice rehabs slower than expected or suffers another injury in his sophomore season. However, anyone who believes Peterson is returning to Washington to simply sit on the bench and mentor Guice is fooling themselves.
The soon-to-be 34-year-old will factor into this backfield, likely helping to lighten Guice’s workload and potentially stealing valuable goal-line touches. Guice will also have to prove himself as a pass-catcher, with a healthy Chris Thompson hoping to recapture his role as the team's third-down back.
Guice was generating a lot of buzz prior to his injury. And if he can get back to 100 percent in 2019, he carries RB2 upside in fantasy - but only if the Redskins are willing to give him the necessary volume. Sadly, Peterson’s two-year contract reduces the odds of that happening.
Robert Foster, Bills
Foster was another out-of-nowhere contributor down the stretch in 2018, averaging top-24 receiver numbers over the final seven games of the fantasy season while posting week-winning stat lines of 3-105, 2-94-1, 7-104, and 4-108-1.
In a depleted Bills receiving corps, Foster was positioned for a potential breakout campaign this season before general manager Brandon Beane brought in John Brown and Cole Beasley during free agency.
Like Foster, Brown excels as a downfield weapon who will do his best to get under Josh Allen's powerful (but often inaccurate) deep balls. And Beasley will take over in the slot, an area offensive coordinator Brian Daboll likes to target.
That leaves Foster's projected target share and production up in the air, without even taking into account the possibility that Buffalo will use an early-round draft pick on an impact receiver or tight end.
Foster's still an intriguing talent, but the odds of him being a weekly fantasy starter have diminished significantly after free agency.