CFB holiday best bets: Giving thanks for a great season

In our world of paying 11 to win 10, the goal is to be right more than 53% of the time. Two articles have landed on your phone per week for the entire college football season. The first was an early lookahead to each week's biggest games, while the second was a list of the seven underdogs with the most value each Saturday.

Here's how those bets have gone this season:

So as we take a look at the best bets for Thanksgiving Thursday and Black Friday, we give thanks for the good bounces we've gotten during this profitable season. Here's to many more.

Fresno State @ San Jose State (+7, 52)

This game could be starting any minute by the time you read this article. Fresno State has to win to book its spot in the Mountain West championship game, but they don't need to win by more than seven.

I'm making this San Jose State +6 because the Spartans need a win for bowl eligibility, so motivation is there in their last home game of the season. If I like SJSU to cover +7, then the team is worth a look for the moneyline. But instead of playing that straight up, parlay it with Boise State on Friday. If the Spartans pull the upset, then San Diego State clinches a berth in the MWC title game and doesn't have to go all out against the Broncos.

Pick: San Jose State +7 / SJSU ML + Boise State ML (+500)

No. 12 Ole Miss @ No. 25 Mississippi State (-2, 64)

The Egg Bowl is everyone's backup plan if the late NFL game isn't competitive, but maybe it should be the focus. Even if the expected rain puts a damper on the total, we'll see two teams that are better than we expected at the beginning of the season in what should be a wildly entertaining game.

I played this early at -1, so I agree with the line move on Mississippi State as I think its defense is more capable of slowing down the Rebels' ground game than Ole Miss is at giving Will Rogers and Mike Leach's Air Raid offense any trouble. Let the cowbells ring on Thanksgiving night.

Pick: Mississippi State -2

Kansas St. @ Texas (-3, 52.5)

You know the rule: Fade Texas in the second half. Without a ticket to a bowl game and their season off the rails, why are the Longhorns favored here? Maybe it's a question of Skylar Thompson's availability, but I don't care if it's Will Howard under center, Kansas State will run through a listless Longhorns defense and get the win on the road. If Texas takes a lead into halftime, even better, as we'll hit K-State again.

Pick: Kansas State +3 / Kansas State 2H

No. 17 Iowa @ Nebraska (+1, 41)

I wrote that Iowa wouldn't cover at home against Illinois last week unless they got some turnover nonsense to augment their point total. Sure enough, a pick-6 almost gave them the cover, but the Fighting Illini managed to backdoor the number.

With Adrian Martinez out for Nebraska, the line has dropped from -4 to the Huskers being slight underdogs. But Martinez is a turnover machine, which would have played into Iowa's hands. This is too much of an adjustment. The Huskers should finally get a decent win to cap their season.

Pick: Nebraska +1

No. 4 Cincinnati @ East Carolina (+14, 58)

Cincinnati has made it into the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings! They did it, everybody!

Next up, the American Athletic Conference championship game against Houston, and then it's an undefeated season and a playoff berth!

But there's still one more data point to create, and it's kind of a tricky one because Holton Ahlers and East Carolina are capable of putting up points. The Bearcats gave us what we've hoped to see throughout the season from them against SMU, but this is still a team capable of a sleepy performance.

Pick: East Carolina +14

Coastal Carolina @ South Alabama (+15, 56)

Simply put, South Alabama is looking for bowl eligibility, so the effort will be there at home against a Sun Belt powerhouse. However, Coastal Carolina doesn't have anything to play for here as they are out of the running for the conference title but have clinched a bowl game appearance. The Jaguars are live for the big upset.

Pick: South Alabama +14.5

Missouri @ No. 21 Arkansas (-14.5, 62.5)

Missouri got its best win of the season - and maybe the best of Eli Drinkwitz's tenure - last week over a dead Florida team. Mizzou clinched a surprise bowl berth, given the point spreads in their final games. Maybe that makes this line feel high, and will Arkansas be ready? Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman has a $250,000 bonus in his contract for an eighth win this season, so do you think he'll have his team prepared for this one?

Pick: Arkansas -14.5 (Wait to see if -14 comes available)

Washington State @ Washington (+1, 44.5)

You didn't think we'd forget about our guy Jayden de Laura, did you?

We snuck a round-robin moneyline parlay in the Saturday Seven column last week, and it cashed in part thanks to fading Washington. Sure, the Huskies are at home for the Apple Cup, but this is Washington State's chance to get a rare road win in the state rivalry game.

Pick: Washington State -1

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.