NFL Week 11 survivor picks: Breaking down the week's top choices

I had enough money on the Chiefs on Sunday night to fund my Christmas expenses. That, combined with the Bryan Edwards props and a terrific overall day of NFL betting, should've had me running celebratory laps around my block.

But I wasn't.

That's the effect of losing nearly every last one of your remaining survivor entries. It's demoralizing. In some, I was down to the final 5% after the Ravens lost Thursday, only for it all to go up in flames thanks to the Buccaneers. You just knew in the first quarter Tampa Bay was toast. I got that sinking feeling early, and it never got close enough to give me hope. It's the hope that kills you, anyways.

I was broken and dejected and defeated. This thing that'd been consuming so much of my time for 10 weeks straight was basically over, in a matter of hours, just when it was getting so good.

And so, we pick up the pieces after another bloodbath of a week for favorites and look ahead to Week 11 with our hopes hanging by a thread. This is a big one; it requires critical thinking because Week 12 is looming, and it might be the toughest survivor week I've ever seen.

Let's look at the Week 11 slate:

1. Browns (vs. Lions)

Nick Chubb's return makes the Browns viable this week in a game they need after an embarrassing loss to the Patriots. They'll get back to their bread and butter here against a Lions defense that can't stop the run and is coming off a physically demanding game against the Steelers. With the pressure off Baker Mayfield, Cleveland is a relatively safe bet to move to 6-5.

2. Buccaneers (vs. Giants)

There's inherently risk with fading Daniel Jones and the Giants at their most dangerous: on the road, as an underdog. That risk is amplified with Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard returning to give Jones a full complement of weapons for the first time in ages. Tom Brady has struggled against the Giants in the past as well, but at home, off back-to-back losses, this is a spot you can count on the Bucs to bring their best.

3. Ravens (@ Bears)

You'd think at home, off a bye, is a great spot for a team to be in. But it's actually one clubs have struggled with in recent years, and that's been very apparent this season. The 49ers, Chargers, and Vikings have all lost in this spot, and as favorites, while the Ravens barely escaped in overtime. The Bears have shown improvement, but this is a tough matchup for them on both sides of the ball against an angry Baltimore team, and the rest advantage is mitigated by the fact that the Ravens played Thursday last week.

4. Patriots (@ Falcons)

This has blowout potential on paper, but it's never that easy with the Falcons. Just when you count them out, they find it in them to shock the world. It's hard picking against teams as inconsistent as Atlanta, and while the Patriots are playing as well as anyone in the league right now, there's something about this game that gives me pause. No Cordarrelle Patterson really helps New England's case, but the Falcons are at home on prime time, coming off their worst game of the year, with a veteran quarterback who won't be intimidated by Bill Belichick's defense. There's a small hint of upset potential here.

5. Titans (vs. Texans)

You're wondering if I've lost my mind putting the Titans so low. I get it. But this team is overdue for a stinker, and this is a brutal spot for them. They're coming off six straight wins, the last five all against likely playoff teams, and they're looking ahead at a huge clash with the Patriots at Foxboro next week. Now they have to get up for a game against the lowly Texans?

Coming off its bye, Houston is live here. Everyone remembers the miserable showing against the Dolphins, but that was with a rusty Tyrod Taylor. He just had two weeks to get himself back to early-season form. Remember how good he looked before getting hurt? The Titans have averaged just 229 yards of total offense in two games without Derrick Henry. They've been outgained 747-458 yards overall and 5.3-4.0 in yards per play. They've had luck on their side, but they're due for a market-correction loss if they don't figure it out soon offensively.

6. 49ers (@ Jaguars)

Our very own Matt Russell outlined this well in his upset of the week, and our views align here. The Jaguars have been playing competitive football and excellent defense over the past month, and they're absolutely live here at home to a 49ers team in for a letdown after a big prime-time win over the Rams. I bet the 49ers in that one, but I still trust Jimmy Garoppolo as far as I can throw him, especially on the road.

7. Bills (vs. Colts)

Colts +7 is one of my favorite bets of the week, if not my favorite. An outright win is a possibility the way they've been playing. Indianapolis nearly won in Buffalo in the playoffs last season when the Bills were on top of their game, which has hardly been the case this year. Buffalo continues to look underwhelming and has failed almost every big test this campaign. The Bills are 1-2 against winning teams, with the collective record of clubs they've beaten sitting at 18-39. To not even look convincing against a schedule this easy is legitimately concerning, and they'll be tested this weekend.

8. Panthers (vs. Washington)

I don't think Cam Newton is a particularly good quarterback, but there's no denying the upgrade he provides this Panthers offense. He brings an element of dynamism it's so desperately lacked this season, and with the defense back to its suffocating self, Carolina is firmly in the playoff conversation. Washington killed us last week, but the Panthers' defense won't be so generous here. Christian McCaffrey and Co. will provide enough offense to push Carolina back above the .500 mark.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.