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Thanksgiving Day features a three-game slate in the NFL. In order to keep you distracted from conversing with family members, here are the best player props for Thursday.
Elliott's slumping hard. He hasn't hit the century mark on the ground in each of the last three weeks and has just one rushing touchdown over the last four. Then again, the schedule has done him no favors. Over Dallas' last six games, four have come against units that are in the top 10 in rush defense DVOA. Buffalo clocks in at No. 26 in that department and No. 31 in explosive rush rate allowed. With the Cowboys laying seven points and potentially playing in a positive game state for a couple of quarters, Elliott should see the type of volume he needs to get over the number.
Saints quarterbacks owe Thomas a steak dinner. He's caught 104 of his 124 targets this season for a catch rate north of 83%. He's seen double-digit targets in all but two games this year and went off for a season-high 13 receptions three weeks ago against Atlanta for 152 yards. Thomas typically balls out against the Falcons, who he'll face again Sunday, averaging 8.3 catches per contest over the teams' last seven meetings for 104.1 yards. Matching up with a secondary that's struggled to contain opposing No.1 wide receivers, Thomas is a must-play to the over.
Allen is still working on his passing abilities. Fortunately, Buffalo hasn't needed him to throw all that much. The Bills are dead last in strength of schedule and the game plan has been simple: get a lead, let the defense go to work, and control the clock. It isn't a coincidence the Bills have the sixth-highest rushing rate in the league. While Allen isn't always a play in fantasy or player prop formats, his upside could be attractive this weekend. For just the fourth time all season, the Bills will be underdogs, and their secondary will be tested against one of the league's top offensive units. Don't be surprised if Allen has to throw a lot in a game where Buffalo could be trailing early.
Did you know the Bears traded up to draft Trubisky when they could've had Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes? OK, so Trubisky hasn't been an all-world quarterback. But if you give him a really good matchup, he'll likely be just fine. In three games this season against units that rank in the bottom third of the league in pass defense DVOA - which includes the Lions, who'll face Trubisky on Thursday - the third-year quarterback is averaging 227 passing yards with seven total touchdowns against two interceptions. That's not too shabby for a player averaging just 185.8 yards per game this year.
Trubisky posted his highest air-yards-per-attempt clip of the season against the Lions three weeks ago and threw for three touchdowns with zero interceptions. Detroit is No. 28 in explosive pass rate allowed this year. I think it all lines up for another big game for Trubisky.
Only three teams in the NFL have done a better job at limiting production from the slot than the Bears. Three weeks ago, they allowed just four completions on eight targets to go for 7.5 yards a pop to Amendola, who spends 76% of his time in the slot for the Lions. We faded him in the prior meeting and we'll do so again Thursday.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKoIodziej.