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College football Week 4 over/under best bets

Streeter Lecka / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Every week during the college football season, we'll cover our five best over/under bets. Let's take a look at Week 4:

Charlotte at Clemson

Total: 62

I've played every Clemson "over" this season, expecting in two of the three games that the Tigers would score at will and only need a little from their opponent. It worked once, with Georgia Tech - of all teams - holding up its end of the bargain. The Tigers' defense has posted back-to-back lights-out performances against Texas A&M and Syracuse (16 total points allowed) but there's potential for a slipup defensively against one of the nation's most improved offenses.

Charlotte's scored 40-plus points in every game so far this year. The 49ers are averaging a whopping 8 yards per play, up from 4.6 last season. To put that into perspective, they're averaging more yards per play in 2019 than Central Florida, LSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Texas, Oregon, and, ironically enough, Clemson. I don't think we'll see another 8-yard average versus the Tigers on Saturday, but it should be high enough to contribute on the scoreboard.

Pick: Over 61.5

San Jose State at Arkansas

Total: 61

Colorado State ripped apart Arkansas' defense for 425 yards last weekend. Fortunately for the Razorbacks, they put up 520 themselves in a 55-34 win. Will an SEC defense give way to a Mountain West offense in consecutive weeks? It's doubtful. San Jose State's offense doesn't hold a candle to the Rams', averaging a full yard less per play this season. This one feels inflated due to Arkansas' shootout last weekend.

Pick: Under 61

Bowling Green at Kent State

Total: 62

I thought this was a tad high when the game opened at 59 and was surprised to see the number creep up to 62 during the week. Bowling Green's days of dabbling in barn burners are over. Though the Falcons have a porous defense, they don't have an offense. Neither does Kent State. Both MAC affiliates rank in the bottom 20 in the country in SP+ offense and have looked lifeless trying to move the ball against FBS competition. After starting 2018 as one of the best "over" teams, Bowling Green is currently on an 8-0 run the other way.

Pick: Under 62

Washington at BYU

Total: 51

BYU came out victorious against USC in overtime last weekend, but how much of it was luck? The Cougars were, unconventionally, more successful on passing downs than standard downs - perhaps because the Trojans' inept secondary would be better served to lay cones out in the defensive backfield and hope opposing receivers trip on their routes.

If BYU finds itself in a similar dilemma this week, the offense likely won't find the same success. Washington, despite losing star players to the draft this past spring, should still be able to get the Cougars into passing downs and let the secondary feast.

Jacob Eason has been great at times for Washington, but this will be the transfer quarterback's first road start against a competent defense this season. After both teams saw the "over" hit last weekend, this Saturday should yield a different result.

Pick: Under 51.5

Appalachian State at North Carolina

Total: 58

Appalachian State under head coach Scott Satterfield lulled opponents to sleep. The Mountaineers leaned on the ground game, played spectacular defense, and were risk-averse, which typically equated to double-digit wins.

Under new head coach Eli Drinkwitz, the offense is opening up a bit more and it's paying dividends: The Mountaineers now have a top-five SP+ offense heading into Week 4 against a North Carolina defense that's been a lot worse than the box scores would indicate. The Tar Heels surrendered only 25 points to Miami despite allowing nearly 500 yards, and they conceded another 436 yards to Wake Forest last weekend before the Demon Deacons let off the gas in the second half.

I would have taken anything at 61 or better, so pulling the trigger on 58 makes all the sense in the world.

Pick: Over 58

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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