Looking back at 2018 NFL win totals: AFC edition
Prior to the 2018 NFL season, we gave out our picks for every team's win total to go over or under the listed number. Here's how we fared, starting with the AFC. Our NFC results are here.
AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers
Our pick: Over 9.5 wins
Chargers record: 12-4
It basically came down to two things for the Chargers: How many winnable games were they going to lose, and how many games were they going to give away in the fourth quarter? Despite three losses as a home favorite, they limited their usual Charger ways to glide over the number.
Denver Broncos
Our pick: Over 7.5
Record: 6-10
It stings to look back at what could have been for the Broncos. They lost three games by three points or fewer and ended the year on a four-game skid, having been favored in three of those contests. So much for our "surprise team in the West."
Kansas City Chiefs
Our pick: Under 8.5 wins
Record: 12-4
We don't want to backtrack too much and will fall on the sword when warranted. But, ahem, our read on the Chiefs was pretty spot on:
The Chiefs are going to need a lot from Patrick Mahomes in 2018 ... The team's strength is now its offense, and the Chiefs should have a fun one. The defense has lost key pieces, added new ones, and has a few coming off injury-ridden seasons, setting the stage for plenty of shootouts ... We'll be raving about Mahomes and the Chiefs' future at the end of the year.
Spoiler alert: Betting against Mahomes was not fun.
Oakland Raiders
Our pick: Under 7.5 wins
Record: 4-12
There was no reason to get cute here. All the changeover, a sketchy coaching hire, and the willingness to ship out any player on the roster was an automatic red flag in terms of expecting the Raiders to win games.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers
Our pick: Over 10.5 wins
Record: 9-6-1
The AFC North is the most frustrating division to look back on and there's no close second. For a start, Pittsburgh: We figured getting a +128 on the over was a nice price to fire on, only for the Steelers to morph into the Chargers of 2018. They tied with the Cleveland Browns in Week 1, threw a goal-line interception to lose to the Broncos, lost as 10-point favorites to the Raiders, and experienced a gut-wrenching Week 16 defeat to the New Orleans Saints.
Baltimore Ravens
Our pick: Over 8.5 wins
Record: 10-6
Rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson saved us, helping the Ravens go 6-1 down the stretch in his starts and leading the club to a playoff berth. Not too shabby for a prospect who was allegedly a better fit as a wide receiver in the NFL.
Cincinnati Bengals
Our pick: Over 7 wins
Record: 6-10
THE BENGALS HAD FOUR WINS IN THE FIRST FIVE WEEKS.
Cleveland Browns
Our pick: Under 5.5 wins
Record: 7-8-1
Once the Browns booted Hue Jackson, we sort of knew that any under ticket was in jeopardy. To be fair, Cleveland should've hit the win total in early November.
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars
Our pick: Over 9 wins
Record: 5-11
How about that Pythagorean expectation? The Jaguars were actually underachievers in their 10-6 2017 season, with analytics pegging them as a 13-win team. Instead of taking another step forward, they finished with five wins in 2018. Very intelligent call on our part.
Tennessee Titans
Our pick: Over 8 wins
Record: 9-7
This is about as ugly a win as you'll find on the board this season. The Titans were the streakiest team in the NFL, going 3-0, 0-3, 2-0, 0-2 and 4-0 between bookend losses.
Indianapolis Colts
Our pick: Under 7 wins
Record: 10-6
We're likely among the vast majority who thought the Colts were the bottom-feeders of the AFC South; after all, they were projected with the lowest win total of the four teams. Still, another shrug, as the Colts punched a ticket to the playoffs.
Houston Texans
Our pick: Under 8.5 wins
Record: 11-5
We demand a refund on the Texans. Look at the quarterbacks Houston faced in 2018! Two overtime wins and two more victories by two points for a team that lucked out after starting the season 0-3.
AFC East
New England Patriots
Our pick: Over 11 wins
Record: 11-5
In exchange for a push, we were blessed with the Miami Miracle. As huge fans of NFL lore, that's a decent trade-off. (We'll retract that statement and turn sour in 3, 2, 1 ...)
Miami Dolphins
Our pick: Under 6.5 wins
Record: 7-9
You had one job, Rob Gronkowski! Bill Belichick is supposedly the greatest coach on earth, yet he sends out his tight end as a safety valve with like 80 yards of turf in front of him? Blasphemy.
New York Jets
Our pick: Under 6 wins
Record: 4-12
Either the Jets or Bills were going to fall flat in 2018, and we picked the right team. Injuries throughout the roster and the choice to keep Todd Bowles through the season helped this one sail under the number.
Buffalo Bills
Our pick: Over 5.5 wins
Record: 6-10
The Bills were probably the luckiest break in the AFC. They won three games as underdogs of six or more points and hit the number in the final week of the season. All hail dual-threat extraordinaire Josh Allen.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.