Baffert, Pletcher look to end 'Apollo Curse' at Kentucky Derby

The Kentucky Derby will be spellbinding, as 20 of the world’s most elite three-year-old racehorses compete in what’s known as “the most exciting two minutes in sport.” But will the race be spell-breaking?

It’s almost impossible to discuss the Derby anymore - which will be run for the 144th time at Churchill Downs this Saturday - without mentioning the “Apollo Curse,” one of the most revered statistics in horse racing.

The last time a horse won the Derby without running a race as a two-year-old was in 1882, when Apollo took the Run for the Roses. Since then, many Thoroughbreds without a start as a juvenile have contested and failed. This year, two of North America’s top trainers, Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher, will try to break the 135-year-old hex once and for all.

Baffert, who won the Triple Crown in 2015 with American Pharoah, has his hopes riding on the undefeated Justify. The chestnut colt is the morning line favorite with 3-1 odds after winning the Santa Anita Derby, a major prep for the big dance.

Manum Moon is the other starter without a resume as a two-year-old, but also comes into Saturday undefeated in his four starts this year with wins in the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. Two-time Derby-winning conditioner Todd Pletcher will saddle Magnum Moon along with three other horses in the race: Vino Rosso, Audible, and Noble Indy. Magnum Moon has the shortest morning-line odds of Pletcher’s quartet at 6-1.

Since 1937 (when the statistics were first taken), 61 horses, including Justify and Mangum Moon, have tried to clinch the curse and have come up short. There have been some close calls, though: Three horses have finished second, and five have finished third. Still, the ghost of Apollo remains.

Without going through the preparation and training for a race at two years old, the Thoroughbreds lack the conditioning and experience to be ready for the qualifier races in the early spring of their three-year-old season. Then there’s tackling the 1 1/4-mile distance at Churchill Downs against 19 other horses. It’s a big step for young, immature horses.

“If you believe in statistics, you’ll believe in it, and I definitely think there’s something to it,” Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who trains Hofburg in the Derby, told reporters earlier this week. Hofburg is one of the more lightly-raced runners, having only run three times in his life, but has the benefit of one race last year. Yet, Churchill Downs’ oddsmaker, Mike Battaglia, has given him a 20-1 chance.

While the Kentucky Derby is still the most famous and coveted race in the world, there is plenty of other opportunities to win money. Big races now happen throughout the year, leaving less pressure to rush a horse’s development in order to make the event.

Baffert, who has won the Derby on four occasions, is undeterred by Apollo. He’s confident he’s brought Justify primed for a big performance.

“It’ll be broken whether it’s this year or whatever,” Baffert told USA Today on the backstretch of Churchill Downs. “In the modern day, we don’t get in a rush with these horses. The Apollo curse is something I don’t even think about.”