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CFB Week 14 Pros vs. Joes: Sharps buying Baylor, Arkansas as 'dogs

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Before you make your college football bets this weekend, it's worth knowing which side other bettors are backing - especially on games drawing sharp action.

We talked to Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, to see how sharps and public bettors are playing the Week 14 slate.

No. 4 Ohio State (-23.5, 59.5) @ Michigan State, 12 p.m. ET

One of the most anticipated games for bettors this week may not even happen as Ohio State deals with a COVID-19 outbreak within the team. Assuming it's a go, books will hope it's close in order to offset a strong public opinion.

The Buckeyes are drawing six times as many tickets on straight bets and 200 times as much money, pushing this line from an opening 22.5 to where it sits at 23.5 as of Friday afternoon. Ohio State is also a favorite in the parlay market, though a handful of sizable bets on Michigan State's moneyline (+1500) has oddsmakers hoping this game falls somewhere in the middle.

"They're pretty much betting it as you think they would," Rood said.

No. 13 BYU (-10, 61) @ No. 18 Coastal Carolina, 5:30 p.m.

The most lopsided game earlier in the week was Coastal Carolina versus Liberty, with bettors fading the Chanticleers in that one. They're following a similar path here, betting against Coastal Carolina in this impromptu matchup between undefeated teams.

BYU opened as a 10-point favorite and remains there as of Friday, though the Cougars have seen five times as many tickets with a whopping 20-to-1 advantage in money wagered. The parlay market is split on these two, though that could also lean BYU by game time.

When two undefeated teams face off this late in the year, it's often wise to play the favorite, which has gone 6-2 against the spread in Week 14 or later in the last eight meetings like this one.

No. 12 Indiana @ No. 16 Wisconsin (-13.5, 45), 3:30 p.m.

This is one of four ranked matchups this weekend, but it's arguably the most interesting from a betting perspective, as bettors are buying both sides despite a major line movement early in the week.

Indiana opened as a 10-point underdog and saw early action at that number before bettors bought back on Wisconsin. Then, after news that Hoosiers quarterback Michael Penix would miss the rest of the season, the line was bumped up to 14.5 at one point before bettors bought it back down to 13.5.

All told, the handle is pretty evenly split, with a slight lean to Wisconsin on straight bets and a 4-to-1 edge to Indiana in parlays. It's a favorable position for books - assuming this margin doesn't fall between 10-14 points for the Badgers.

Baylor @ No. 11 Oklahoma (-21.5, 62), 8 p.m.

After a rocky start to the season, Oklahoma has ripped off five straight wins with a 5-0 ATS record in its quest for a Big 12 title. Still, bettors aren't buying it ahead of a potential trap game against Baylor.

The Bears were 23.5-point underdogs early in the week before a run of money nudged that line down to 22. An extended limit play on Friday morning took that number down to 21.5 and brought Baylor's advantage to 200-to-1 in money wagered as of Friday afternoon.

"We're 2-to-1 on tickets to Oklahoma," Rood said, "but all the money's on Baylor."

Arkansas @ Missouri (-3, 52.5), 12 p.m.

The most lopsided matchup this week is a fairly ho-hum contest between two pedestrian SEC squads Saturday. But that's not the way bettors see things.

Sharp bettors have lined up on Arkansas, which opened at +3.5 and has pulled 100 times as much money on a modest 3-to-1 ticket count advantage. In the parlay market, though, Missouri is the one drawing twice as much money on four times as many tickets after this game was delayed from a week ago.

"If it holds up and the public still stays on Missouri," Rood said, "we've got a little bit of a Pros vs. Joes game here.”

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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