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CFB upset of the week: Rutgers is a live 'dog vs. Penn State

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The last time we picked an upset was in Week 12, siding with Oklahoma State. The Cowboys were no match for archrival Oklahoma, losing by 28.

I think it's safe to say we can't do much worse this weekend.

As we march forward into Week 14, it's important to consider the circumstances in college football. Teams that haven't lived up to lofty preseason expectations might be ready to throw in the towel (or have already done so), while rebuilding squads getting the most out of live action are still eager for reps.

Here's the team that should be careful this Saturday.

Upset of the week: Rutgers (+11 vs. Penn State)

Penn State's season-opening loss to Indiana completely wrecked the program's morale. The Nittany Lions outgained the Hoosiers by 2.2 yards per play and still lost, ultimately deflating their College Football Playoff chances.

Since then, they've shown little effort.

Penn State lost by double digits at home to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions also let Maryland win outright as a 26-point 'dog, dropped games to Iowa and Nebraska by a combined 27 points, and outgained a below-average Michigan team by just 0.1 yards per play. It's certainly fair to question whether they want to keep playing.

Rutgers, meanwhile, is making strides in Year 1 under head coach Greg Schiano. A program that combined for three wins over the previous two seasons has already logged a couple of victories this campaign, beating both Michigan State and Purdue as the underdog.

Playing Ohio State was a turning point for the Scarlet Knights. A motivated team threw the kitchen sink at the Buckeyes, but still lost 49-27.

The Big Ten fledgling hasn't wavered since, outgaining Illinois and Michigan in losses thereafter, then beating Purdue last Saturday. The Scarlet Knights certainly look driven.

But Rutgers hasn't performed particularly well overall against Penn State, with the offense not scoring more than 10 points in any of the six meetings.

However, the Nittany Lions' defense hasn't been the unit we expected, ranking outside the top 20 in most advanced metrics. A Rutgers offense that's logged 27-plus points in three of five contests this season might finally experience some success.

Penn State is coming off its first win against the spread this year, and head coach James Franklin doesn't fare particularly well the game after a cover, going 0-5 ATS.

On the other sideline, the Scarlet Knights are 5-1 ATS over their last six as underdogs, and they're on a 5-2 run ATS overall.

This is another faux Super Bowl for an up-and-coming Rutgers program. Bet on the home team here.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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