CFB national championship game props: Best bets for Clemson-LSU
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Monday's national championship game features one of the more compelling matchups in recent title game history between No. 1 LSU and No. 3 Clemson - two undefeated squads with star quarterbacks, elite skill position players, and first-round talent on defense.
If you're torn on the side and total, there are a host of game props to mine value from in Monday's affair. Here are a few of the best props to target before kickoff:
LSU vs. Clemson game props
First score
SCORE | ODDS |
---|---|
Touchdown | -230 |
Any other score | +180 |
A game like this won't be decided by field goals. Among LSU's 63 points in the semifinals, none came on field goals. Same with Clemson's 29 points in its semifinal, too. In each of these teams' last six games, 11 of the 12 opened with a touchdown. Four of the last five title games have opened with a touchdown, and this one feels like a sure bet to do the same.
Longest TD
YARDS | ODDS |
---|---|
Over 60.5 | -110 |
Under 60.5 | -110 |
It's certainly no fun to bet the under on this, but don't underestimate these defenses. Clemson's offense scored a 60-yard touchdown in four of its last 10 games, while its defense has only allowed three all season. LSU hasn't surrendered one in its last four games. Its offense has produced plenty, but Clemson's defense is good enough to avoid a breakdown in coverage.
Will there be a non-offensive TD?
TD SCORED | ODDS |
---|---|
Yes | +170 |
No | -200 |
Last year's title game famously featured a pick-6 in the opening minutes, and this year's is a decent bet to see another. Three of the last six national championships and four of the last 10 have featured a non-offensive score.
One potential X-factor is LSU's lousy punt coverage defense, which allowed the nation's second-most yards per return (16.71) and nearly lost control of the Alabama game thanks to a wild score.
Will there be a safety?
SAFETY | ODDS |
---|---|
Yes | 10-1 |
No | 1-20 |
Since the BCS era began in 2007 - including the last five years of the playoff - there's been one safety in 13 title games. Not great odds. Consider, too, that the only way a safety occurs is for a team to be backed up in its own territory, which likely means one side punting from near midfield. Good luck with that. Everyone loves to win a lot for a little, but you'd likely be wasting your money on this one.
Will there be a score in first five minutes?
SCORE | ODDS |
---|---|
Yes | -130 |
No | Even |
Maybe last year's early-game barrage is fresh on your mind, but this is rarer than you might think - only three of the last 11 title games have seen either team get on the scoreboard in the first five minutes. It's a harder sell with these schools, which tend to strike early and often, but don't sell short the effect of title-game nerves for both offenses.
Total points odd or even
POINTS | ODDS |
---|---|
Odd | -120 |
Even | -110 |
This is probably a dumb prop and you probably shouldn't bet it. That said, seven of LSU's last eight games have ended with an odd-numbered total. Five of Clemson's last six and eight of its last 10 have done the same. Especially if these two trade touchdowns and abandon the kicking game, it wouldn't be hard to envision a one-score, odd-numbered final.
Combined first downs
FIRST DOWNS | ODDS |
---|---|
Over 53.5 | -105 |
Under 53.5 | -125 |
Again, not fun to root for, but this number is far too high. LSU (27.8) and Clemson (26.4) combined for just over 54 first downs per game on offense this season. Sounds good, right? Sure, except they were facing defenses far inferior to the ones they'll see Monday. Both defenses combined to allow just over 32 first downs per game on the year. This is an easy under play, even in a shootout.
First turnover of the game
TURNOVER | ODDS |
---|---|
Interception | -170 |
Fumble | -140 |
The likelihood of an interception are higher than these odds suggest, even with two strong quarterbacks. Clemson's offense forced nearly twice as many interceptions (19) as fumbles (11), and it threw 10 interceptions to just four fumbles committed. LSU's defense has posted a remarkable 17-4 split in interceptions to fumbles, making the former far more likely to open Monday's game.
First to score a touchdown
PLAYER | ODDS |
---|---|
Ja'Marr Chase | 5-1 |
Travis Etienne | 6-1 |
Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 8-1 |
Tee Higgins | 10-1 |
Terrace Marshall Jr. | 10-1 |
Justyn Ross | 12-1 |
Trevor Lawrence | 14-1 |
Joe Burrow | 18-1 |
Thaddeus Moss | 25-1 |
Amari Rodgers | 25-1 |
Chris Curry | 40-1 |
Racey McMath | 40-1 |
Lyn-J Dixon | 50-1 |
Joe Ngata | 50-1 |
Diondre Overton | 50-1 |
No touchdown scored | 500-1 |
Field | 8-1 |
At last, everyone's favorite prop. The trick here is two-fold: you've got to determine which side you think will score first, and then which player they'll rely on. It's rarely a plus-value proposition, but it's harder to find one more thrilling to root for.
If you like Clemson to strike first, the best bet on the board is Travis Etienne, who scored Clemson's first touchdown in the semifinals and has 22 scores through 14 games. A close second is Tee Higgins, who secured the first score in three consecutive games prior to Clemson's win over Ohio State.
LSU spreads the ball a little more liberally, but Ja'Marr Chase has still hauled in the team's first score in four of the last six games. The potential value play is Joe Burrow, who scored his fourth rushing touchdown of the year in last week's semifinal and could take things into his own hands to open Monday's championship.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.