CFB title odds: Michigan a 60-1 long shot after Badgers blowout
Three teams from the Big Ten have reached the College Football Playoff since its inception in 2015. None were Wisconsin. Is this finally the year for the Badgers?
Through three games, Wisconsin is demolishing opponents with a 145-14 scoring margin. That includes Michigan, which was embarrassed in Saturday's 35-14 loss in Madison - marking Jim Harbaugh's seventh straight-up loss in seven games as an underdog with Michigan.
Saturday's result flipped the title odds for those two schools, but both still trail Ohio State, which will face those two programs in its quest for the Big Ten's first playoff bid since 2017.
Here are the title odds at theScore Bet as of Monday, with a breakdown on some teams with the biggest movement:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Clemson | 2-1 |
| Alabama | 5-2 |
| Ohio State | 5-1 |
| LSU | 6-1 |
| Oklahoma | 6-1 |
| Georgia | 8-1 |
| Wisconsin | 12-1 |
| Iowa | 18-1 |
| Auburn | 25-1 |
| Florida | 50-1 |
| Michigan | 60-1 |
| Notre Dame | 60-1 |
| Penn State | 60-1 |
| Texas | 60-1 |
| Utah | 60-1 |
| Washington | 60-1 |
| Oregon | 75-1 |
| USC | 75-1 |
Wisconsin rises, Michigan falls
The Badgers entered last week with 40-1 title odds but were 3.5-point favorites over the Wolverines, who were 18-1 to win the title. After Saturday's result, Wisconsin is now 12-1 to win it all, while Michigan is a 60-1 long shot.
Surprise, surprise: The Badgers' run game is leading the way. Fresh off two 2,000-yard seasons from scrimmage, Jonathan Taylor is averaging 170 scrimmage yards per game through three contests, with a season-high 203 rushing yards against Michigan's touted defense.
Just as Wisconsin has become a dark horse contender in the title race, Taylor is knocking on the door of Heisman legitimacy. The junior running back is 14-1 to win the award, adjusted from 15-1, and he's the only non-quarterback whose price has shortened since odds opened in February.
He still trails five quarterbacks, including Ohio State's Justin Fields (8-1), whose Buckeyes have cruised to a 4-0 record and 5-1 title price.
The two Heisman contenders will match up in Columbus on Oct. 26 in what could be a de facto elimination game between the two programs. Outside of that contest, the Badgers face No. 25 Michigan State and No. 14 Iowa at home and likely won't see another ranked opponent until the Big Ten title game.
Is Michigan still worth a shot? The Wolverines get the Buckeyes at home to close their season, which includes five remaining games against top-20 teams. An undefeated slate plus a conference title would likely be enough to vault Michigan into the College Football Playoff, though its sloppy first few weeks suggest another loss (or two, or three) is on the horizon.
Iowa's 3-0 start is nice, but this conference comes down to Ohio State and Wisconsin. The Buckeyes getting home field for their matchup is crucial to the two teams' odds, and Ohio State's elite run defense is enough to hold off on buying a Wisconsin title ticket ahead of that game.
UCF drops out of title race
We knew that Central Florida's margin for error was slim if it ever hoped to party with the Power 5 schools in the College Football Playoff. But man, did everything come crashing down in a hurry.
UCF was lurking as a 75-1 title contender before last week's road trip to Pittsburgh. One loss later - its first in 25 regular-season games, mind you - and the Knights are now 150-1 to win the title. At some shops, they're priced as long as 10,000-1 to win it all.
As attractive as those odds may seem, it's almost impossible to imagine UCF stealing one of the top four spots. The Knights don't play a ranked team all year, and potential wins against Cincinnati and Houston won't look as attractive as they previously seemed.
Even if UCF won its next eight games by 50 points, that wouldn't be enough to turn the heads of the committee. Regardless of what odds you get on the Knights, it's not worth the investment.
Other notable movements
- Bye-bye, Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish kept it close Saturday but couldn't overtake Georgia on the road, pushing their title odds from 30-1 to 60-1. Potential wins against No. 18 Virginia, No. 21 USC, and No. 20 Michigan would be nice, but you can likely write off the Irish as a playoff hopeful after they surrendered their only potential top-10 win.
- Don't forget about Auburn, which now has two legitimate wins over Oregon and Texas A&M amid a 4-0 start. The No. 7 Tigers sit ahead of No. 8 Wisconsin in the AP Poll but feature 25-1 title odds, ninth-shortest in the field. Auburn's remaining schedule is brutal, but that will bolster the team's playoff chances should the Tigers survive.
- Does Oregon have a chance? The Ducks' season-opening loss to Auburn is looking better each week, and they've trounced their last three opponents by a combined score of 133-15 after last week's road blowout over Stanford. Two of Oregon's three toughest games left are on the road, but an undefeated run and the conference title might be enough to overlook one loss, leaving some nice value at 75-1.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.