Tips for betting early-season college football

Betting early can be one of the most profitable ways to gamble, as eight months of hype and projection clash with small sample sizes. It's especially true in college football, where massive Week 1 lines and significant turnover can leave plenty of value for the proactive bettor.

Here are some tips for betting early in the college football season:

Play home underdogs, big favorites

Home underdogs are the ultimate sucker bet in college football, with massive spreads but a below-profitable rate in every week - except Week 1.

In the last five years, home underdogs are a tasty 37-22 against the spread (62.7 percent) to open the season, according to Sports Database, and they've been profitable in four of the past five years. Those same home 'dogs tank in value until later in the year, when their ATS record starts to break even but never hits 55 percent.

Don't mistake Week 1 ATS success with a moneyline gold mine. Home 'dogs are only winning at a 25.4 percent clip (15-44), but they're keeping it closer than spread bettors may think.

This makes sense in theory. Preseason hype hangs over every Week 1 line, and public bettors may tend to inflate the difference between two teams. They also might overlook the value of home-field advantage, especially in the first game of the year.

Huge home favorites also perform well early, particularly straight-up. Home teams giving 31 points or more in Week 1 are 62-50-2 ATS (55.4 percent) and a ridiculous 113-1 straight-up (99.1 percent) in the past five seasons.

Know polls vs. market

Many bettors can't help themselves - when a team has that little "No. 10" next to its name, it has to be better than the team with the "No. 20" next to it, right?

Smart bettors will use that to their advantage. For example, Notre Dame is ranked No. 9 in the AP poll - one of the biggest discrepancies between what voters think and what futures bettors think. The Irish have two easy games before facing a stiff test against Georgia, so Notre Dame's ranking will likely still be inflated ahead of that Week 3 test.

If that's the case, sharps will hop all over the Bulldogs, so get ahead of the market and fade the team with an inflated AP ranking. Likewise, if the polls never correct on a team like Memphis (unranked), hop onto the Tigers before that little "No. 25" drives the public to their side.

In general, public teams (USC, Notre Dame, Texas) will be ranked higher relative to their success than most mid-majors or smaller Power 5 schools, and they'll likely see less favorable lines, too. Knowing how the polls may skew the public can help you bet like a sharp in the early weeks when preseason expectations die hard.

Fade inexperience early

Bettors can often get so caught up in what a team "could" be that they forget what the team "will" be come Week 1. And for young teams with inexperienced coaches, that will usually be a strong fade candidate.

Schools with massive turnover often won't find their groove until later in the year, leaving value on the table for bettors who fade high-potential teams during their growing pains.

Take Boise State, for example. The Broncos will be ushering in a new quarterback and running back with starter Brett Rypien and workhorse Alexander Mattison now in the NFL. Boise State may have a fine year, but a Week 1 test in Tallahassee isn't a great way to break in a new QB, whoever that may be.

This isn't specifically about the Broncos - any team facing serious turnover at key spots will be hard-pressed to find success in the first week of the year, especially in a hostile environment.

That applies for coaches, too. Succeeding in Year 1 in college football is a difficult task, especially for system-heavy coaches. Teams with poor records the year before may see shortened lines with a new man in town, but the prudent thing for bettors is to fade the newcomer until he proves otherwise.