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ACC projected win totals and best bets

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Many experts predict a down year for the ACC even though the conference is home to the defending national champion Clemson Tigers. Based on the 2019 projected win totals, oddsmakers expect another season of Clemson dominance while everyone else fights for second place.

Clemson is tied with Alabama for the highest projected win total heading into the season at 11.5. The Tigers play 12 games, so there is no wiggle room if you take the over - it's go unbeaten or bust.

While Clemson will be favored in every game this season, keep in mind that the Tigers lost to Syracuse two years ago and trailed the Orange late in the fourth quarter at home last season before pulling out a 27-23 win. Clemson travels to the Carrier Dome on Sept. 14 for a prime-time matchup that could be the biggest obstacle between the Tigers and an undefeated regular season.

The team with the lowest projected win total in the ACC is Louisville at 3.5. The Cardinals return 16 starters from last year's 2-10 squad and bring in former Appalachian State head coach Scott Satterfield to replace the departed Bobby Petrino. They should be better in 2019, but a tough schedule featuring Notre Dame, Clemson, and Syracuse will make it difficult for Louisville to win four games.

Here's the complete list of projected ACC win totals and some best bets to consider:

Team Win Total
Clemson 11.5
Miami 8.5
Virginia Tech 8
Virginia 8
Syracuse 8
Florida State 7.5
NC State 7
Boston College 6
Pitt 6
Wake Forest 6
North Carolina 5.5
Duke 5.5
Georgia Tech 4
Louisville 3.5

(Odds courtesy: Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

Best Bets

Wake Forest Over 6 (Even)

Wake Forest is typically undervalued because it doesn't have the overall talent of some other ACC schools, and that's the case again this year. Head coach Dave Clawson does a great job of getting the most out of his players, however, and that's helped the team post 22 wins and three bowl appearances over the last three seasons.

The Demon Deacons were underdogs in their final eight games last year and 10 of 13 overall. Even college football expert Phil Steele admitted in his popular preview magazine that he always underestimates Wake Forest and picks them too low in the ACC.

I love to hop on teams like Wake Forest and Cal that have tremendous coaching staffs and are undervalued in the betting market. The Demon Deacons return seven starters on offense, including experienced quarterbacks Jamie Newman and Sam Hartman. The schedule sets up nicely for Wake to go over six wins with home games against Utah State, North Carolina, Louisville, and Duke, along with a road matchup with lowly Rice.

Wake Forest has proven experts wrong in each of the last three seasons by recording seven, eight, and seven wins. I expect that trend to continue with Wake going over six wins and becoming bowl eligible for the fourth straight year.

NC State Under 7 (+130)

The ACC is a weird conference: There's Clemson and then a bunch of teams projected to fall in the middle of the pack. I'm high on Syracuse, Virginia, Boston College, and Wake Forest. The two teams I see going under their win totals out of that group are NC State and Virginia Tech. Since the Hokies have a cake schedule, I'm going with the Wolfpack under seven wins as the better play.

The big issue facing NC State this year is at the quarterback position. Ryan Finley graduated and the remaining quarterbacks have eight career pass attempts between them. There are some talented young options with redshirt freshman Devin Leary, JUCO transfer Bailey Hockman, and true freshman Ty Evans. However, the transition from the school's No. 2 all-time leading passer (after only Philip Rivers) to a group with virtually no experience will be difficult.

The Wolfpack need a fast start to go over seven wins because the middle section of their schedule is brutal. NC State faces Syracuse, Boston College (away), and Wake Forest (away), all coming off bye weeks, before hosting Clemson. That stretch will decide if NC State goes over its win total. With an unproven quarterback and just four returning starters on offense, I'm betting they come up short.

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