Top 10 betting plays for Week 8 of the college football season
As I construct the Week 8 college football card, my thought process is reminiscent of a line from the movie "Holes": "It's so hot, Sam, but I feel so cold."
It's 90-something degrees outside in Arizona, but my reads on college football are cooling rapidly. Weather forecasts on Saturday have me overthinking. Lines are getting tighter and tighter as the weeks go by. Also, after the character from "Holes" says that line, she's almost immediately bitten by a venomous yellow-spotted lizard.
But hey! We're good. Be sure to shop around for the best numbers if you decide to tail (or fade).
Top Plays
Bowling Green at Ohio
Wager: Ohio -16.5
Teams like one-win Bowling Green need any sort of victory to salvage their season. The Falcons nearly captured their signature win last weekend as 14-point underdogs to Western Michigan. Instead, they squandered a fourth-quarter lead and fell to 1-6. It was very Bowling Green.
If Bowling Green's going to stay in games, the passing game needs to be there. On Saturday, I'm not sure the Falcons can rely on it too much.
Weather forecasts in Athens, Ohio, call for a 50 percent chance of rain and 12-14 mph winds, so you might assume the running games would have the edge. Since Bowling Green ranks last in the country against the rush, it's a clear advantage for Ohio. Even on potential mop-up duty when they're playing "conservatively," the Bobcats should be able to keep the scoreboard operator busy against a Falcons defense that's giving up 325.1 yards on the ground per game.
Oklahoma at TCU
Wager: Over 61.5
This game is hysterical to dissect. Put someone in a cryogenic chamber for the past two years, then tell them the Oklahoma-TCU total is 61 in 2018, and they'd unload their retirement fund on the over.
The contrarian play is the under now that the world knows TCU is significantly better defensively than offensively. I'm not saying the market's overcorrected, but it's exactly this kind of overthinking and getting too cute that makes it easy to overlook obvious plays.
Offensively, nobody is better than Oklahoma - not Alabama, not Ohio State, not anyone. After Dwayne Haskins and the Buckeyes ripped up the Horned Frogs for 526 yards and 40 points (it should have been closer to 50), there's no reason Kyler Murray and the Sooners can't run amok, given the offensive similarities.
And yes, Oklahoma got a new defensive coordinator. Great. Ruffin McNeill's gotten rave reviews since taking over for Mark Stoops, but there are two questions: Given Oklahoma's personnel, can McNeill even fix the defense? And can the Sooners make those repairs in 10 days?
TCU's offense is still pretty blah. So is Oklahoma's defense. Let me watch all the 4.4 speed on full display Saturday. #MakeBig12OversGreatAgain
Coastal Carolina at UMass
Wager: Over 71
Sticking with obvious plays versus potential trap plays, Coastal Carolina and UMass meet in what should be a track meet - "should" being the key word.
The two defenses haven't been able to stop a soul. Only red-zone woes or turnovers in plus territory can prevent this game from sailing over the total.
Just take a look at some of the defensive statistics. Coastal Carolina's defense is 93rd in the country in pass yards per completion (12.3) and 129th in rush yards per attempt (7.6); UMass ranks 110th (13.7) and 124th (6.1) in the same categories.
Meanwhile, both offenses average over 30 points per game and should be able to move up and down the field at will.
Extra Points
Alabama at Tennessee
Recommended Pick: Under 57
I thought the over was basically automatic - the Crimson Tide could cover it themselves. Then, it dawned on me.
Standing on the opposite sideline is Jeremy Pruitt, a former Nick Saban assistant.
By now you've heard that Saban is undefeated against former assistants. Except people forget the other part of the story: The Alabama coach avoids running up the score on his former coaches.
That's not the main reason I'm recommending the under, however. Tennessee's offense is still a bunch of stuff thrown at the wall with hopes that something will stick. Last weekend at Auburn, the Vols just threw countless jump balls to their big wide receivers, who won every 50-50 25-75 ball. That type of production isn't sustainable.
There are other angles to tap into - Bama gets LSU next, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa might not be 100 percent. But if you're in need of points, I don't think Tennessee can do it a second week in a row after hanging 30 on Auburn.
Buffalo at Toledo
Recommended Pick: Buffalo -1
Weather figures to play a huge role in the MAC showdown Saturday. We highlighted earlier in the week why Buffalo should have a couple of advantages.
Houston at Navy
Recommended Pick: Houston -11.5
This might be a terrible matchup for Navy.
Led by defensive end Ed Oliver, Houston's one of the best teams in the country versus the run. I thought the Cougars' rush defense might be a byproduct of playing against pass-happy teams in the AAC - skewing the yards per game based on fewer opportunities - but it's not. Houston is allowing 2.9 yards per carry, good for seventh in the nation. That doesn't bode well for the Midshipmen, who run the ball on an average of 58.8 plays per game.
Virginia at Duke
Recommended Pick: Under 45
Here's another weather-impacted game with a 90 percent chance of rain and perhaps some wind to boot. Totals set lower than the two teams' combined scoring averages, like this one, go under roughly 58 percent of the time.
Virginia-Duke features a pair of top 25 scoring defenses that should also get some help from the precipitation.
Michigan at Michigan State
Recommended Pick: Michigan State +7
As a Michigan fan with an unbiased wallet, I expect Jim Harbaugh to struggle in one aspect of the game Saturday: The offense will either fail to score a touchdown in the first three quarters, or the defense will succumb to quarterback Brian Lewerke and the Spartans' offense and give up 14 in the first. I've seen it happen too many times to count.
Michigan State hasn't put it all together and isn't yet up to full strength, but it can still take away Michigan's running game. In what should be a low-scoring affair, I'd grab the seven with the home team.
Nevada at Hawaii
Recommended Pick: Nevada +3
Getting Ty Gangi back under center should uplift a Nevada offense that's struggled in the last two weeks without him. These two teams are five spots apart from each other in S&P+ rankings, so the line is just about right. However, I'd take a gamble on Nevada flying off the island with a win.
San Jose State at San Diego State
Recommended Pick: San Jose State +27.5
San Diego State's had trouble putting teams away as the favorite in recent past. A low-scoring game might be in the works, making a four-touchdown 'dog enticing in a late-night Mountain West showdown.
Top plays: 19-14-1
Overall record: 36-33-1
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.