March Madness: Best bets for Sunday's Regional Finals

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The last two tickets to the Final Four get punched on Sunday with a pair of familiar matchups. Tennessee and Purdue vacationed in Maui together in November, while no one needs to introduce NC State and Duke to one another. How can that familiarity be built into the handicap of these contests? Matt Russell and Sam Oshtry break down how they're betting each game.

Midwest Regional Final: (2) Tennessee vs. (1) Purdue (-3.5, 147.5)

Sam's best bet: Purdue (-3.5)

I've been writing all tournament that Purdue is on a mission to avenge its opening-round tournament loss in 2023. The Boilermakers were my pre-tournament pick to win it all, and I'm not jumping off the wagon.

Purdue has covered all three tournament games, and it'll keep that streak alive against Tennessee. The Vols have been an impressive group. They have an elite defense that stymied - to a degree - Creighton's stellar offensive attack.

But Creighton's offense isn't as dynamic as Purdue's. The Boilermakers are the best 3-point shooting team in the country and have Zach Edey, the most dominant player.

Tennessee doesn't solely rely on its defense like it has in years past. Dalton Knecht is the Vols' offensive spark that's led them to this point. But Purdue showed it could be punched and get back up when it pulled away from Gonzaga. As good as Tennessee is defensively, I don't think it has sufficient personnel to stop Purdue's inside-out attack.

Matt's best bet: Tennessee (+3.5)

This is a "best bet" in name only since our best betting was done before the tournament started when we nabbed Tennessee at +300 to win the region. Sure, it would've been nice for someone else to knock out Purdue before now to gain maximum equity on that ticket, but we made that bet based on the idea the Vols can topple the Boilermakers.

If you were looking for a high-intensity, 40-minute dress rehearsal to get you ready for Purdue, Creighton would be the ideal opponent. With a somewhat nimble 7-foot center surrounded by a complement of 3-point shooters, the Blue Jays were a low-calorie version of the Boilermakers this season. Tennessee struggled to keep Ryan Kalkbrenner off the rim early, eventually making adequate adjustments, and the Vols' athletic length in the post made it difficult for the Jays to get traditional post touches. The Vols mostly stayed out of foul trouble - the death knell for Purdue's last two opponents. Uber disruptor Zakai Zeigler will present the type of challenge Braden Smith hasn't seen all season.

South Regional Final: (11) NC State vs. (4) Duke (-7, 142.5)

Matt's best bet: NC State (+7)

As discussed in Friday's preview for its game with Houston, Duke had something to prove in the most primitive way. The word was the Blue Devils were soft and the Cougars would bully them into submission. Perhaps that would've been the case if Houston star Jamal Shead hadn't rolled his ankle early in a game the Cougars led by six, but the Blue Devils battled to a low-scoring, grimy win. However, that sense of accomplishment might hurt them as they have to turn around and take on what many will consider a lesser opponent, especially given the betting market is asking Duke to win comfortably.

We're running out of excuses as to why the Wolfpack keep winning. The cliche might be "You have to throw out the record books" for the Raleigh-Durham rivalry, but when it comes to NC State's play this month, I'm officially throwing out the analytics. It's clear that what DJ Horne said after the convincing win over Marquette is true: This team has settled into their roles. It's an immeasurably important thing in basketball.

Two weeks ago, this matchup on a neutral court would've been lined at Duke -9. How do we know this? That was the line in the Wolfpack's ACC Tournament quarterfinal win over Duke in Washington, D.C., so I understand why it's crept up from opening just shy of -6. However, breaks in the schedule haven't cooled off NC State, and like in the conference tournament when it caught Duke after a slugfest with North Carolina, there's a real chance the Wolfpack keep this going. The Blue Devils feel like they proved something to themselves, even if an injury to their opponent's best player might have had something to do with it.

Sam's best bet: NC State (+7)

NC State has put together one of the more remarkable postseason runs in recent history. Winning five games in five days in the ACC Tournament plus three in a row for an Elite Eight appearance is nothing short of impressive.

I'm with Matt on this one. Duke benefited from Shead's injury in the Sweet 16 and escaped past an injured Houston group.

Duke has the offensive firepower to put together monster offensive nights, especially when its guards get hot from three. And Kyle Filipowski could limit DJ Burns in the post. However, NC State is as hot as any team in the country. Its offense has functioned at a high level, with each player buying into their respective roles. I'm not sure NC State can win outright, but it'll keep it close.

Follow Matt on social media at @mrussauthentic and Sam at @soshtry.