CBB betting: How to bet the AAC Tournament

The American Athletic Conference has been Houston's for years - the Cougars have gone 89-18 in league play since 2018 and won the last two conference tournaments.

While not quite on Houston's level, there are a handful of other teams that roster ample talent to give the Cougars a fight and try to nestle their way into the Big Dance. The narrative of "Houston versus the field" brings an interesting storyline to one of the latest-starting brackets in the country.

Tournament odds

Each team has one of four categorical statuses. They are either: "Playing for 1-seed," "Securely in," "On the bubble," or "Need to win tournament" for an automatic bid to the NCAA tourney.

Early-round bet to make

(9) East Carolina vs. (8) South Florida
March 9, 12:30 p.m. ET

East Carolina plays solid defense but is a poor shooting squad, making the team very dependent on offensive rebounds. Case in point: The Pirates are 13-9 with impressive wins over Cincinnati and Tulane when they grab at least 27% of their misses and 2-7 with a tight win over dreadful Tulsa and a loss to 339th-ranked South Carolina State when they fail to hit that mark. Meanwhile, South Florida is second in the American in defensive rebounding percentage at 27.1%.

A small East Carolina front line also had issues defending lumbering South Florida big man Russel Tchewa in its two losses to the Bulls this season. Tchewa went off for 20 points on 6-of-9 shooting in the first game, forcing the Pirates to double-team him in the rematch, resulting in a career-high-tying three assists. He also held Pirates rising freshman big man, Ezra Ausar, to just 18 points combined over the two tilts.

A bet on South Florida is also a bet on one of the conference's best scorers in Tyler Harris. The Memphis transfer put up a combined 45 points against the Pirates on just 26 field goals and took advantage of a team that's been without its leading scorer and passer, Javon Small, for the last 13 games. With a personnel advantage and the ability to control the glass, back the Bulls with a small spread.

Pick: South Florida (-4 or better)

Late-round matchup to target

(3) Tulane vs. (2) Memphis
Semifinal, March 11, 5:30 p.m. ET

Possessing the highest percentage of returning minutes from last season in the entire country (82%), Tulane's quest to make the American final likely runs through Memphis in the semis. The Green Wave are an extremely challenging matchup for the Tigers due in large part to their funky matchup defense that forces nearly half of their opponents' shots from beyond the arc. Memphis is 346th in 3-point attempt rate and will be without its best outside shooter in Keonte Kennedy.

Tulane also takes great control of the ball - ranking 15th nationwide in offensive turnover percentage - a major key against a Tigers team that seeks out steals. It's no surprise that Tulane handed the Tigers two of their five conference losses. The Green Wave hit 11 3-pointers in each of those games and are 9-0 when they hit double-digit long balls, attainable once again against Memphis' packed-in defense.

The wildcard here is Memphis superstar Kendric Davis, who's scored at least 20 points in 12 of his last 13 full games, with averages of 28.5 points and seven assists against Tulane this season. But with Tulane's evident matchup advantages as a small underdog, it's worth investing in the Green Wave.

Pick: Tulane (+3 or better)

Best bet to win the tournament

Let's be real - it's quite likely Houston wins this tournament for the third straight time, but there's no value in betting the Cougars as giant favorites. Conventional wisdom would say a decent value pick resides on the other side of the bracket, as those teams wouldn't have to play Houston until the final. However, with the books using that logic in their lines, it's worth taking a look at the Cougars' potential semifinal opponent, Cincinnati.

The Bearcats should be able to take down a Temple squad without leading scorer Khalif Battle in the quarters, which would set up a matchup against Houston, one which they led by eight with under 10 minutes to play on the road in late January. Cincinnati has an excellent assortment of guards who can get red-hot from deep, and Russian big man Viktor Lakhin can hold his own against Houston's size.

Knocking off three strong teams in Temple, Houston, and whoever makes it out of the bracket's opposite side is surely a tough ask but a doable one for a team with NCAA Tournament-level talent. At the current price, it's certainly worth at least a small gamble.

Pick: Cincinnati (+1300)

Matthew Winick is a Basketball News Editor for theScore. Find him on Twitter @matthewwinick.