CBB betting: How to bet the SEC Tournament

After a year in Tampa for reasons that are hard to fathom, the SEC Tournament is back where it belongs in Nashville this year. There are worse times to be had than five days of intense basketball in Music City, and like most postseasons in the Southeastern Conference, it's anyone's tournament.

Tournament odds

Each team has one of four categorical statuses. They are either: "Playing for 1-seed," "Securely in," "On the bubble," or "Need to win conference tournament" for an automatic bid to the NCAAs.

Early-round bets to make

(9) Mississippi St. vs. (8) Florida
Second round, March 9, 1:00 p.m. EST

I will not be fooled by wins over Georgia and LSU to end the season, the Gators are toothless without Colin Castleton. Reportedly out for the season, Florida's nearly 7-foot center is expected to be out for Thursday's game with Mississippi State, leaving Todd Golden's short-handed group to deal with the Bulldogs' sweltering defense - ranked sixth nationally in ShotQuality's adjusted defensive metric.

The market adjusted the Gators down four points for Castleton's absence so this line could be as high as Mississippi State -5, but if it's that - or anything less - I'll be on the Bulldogs. Should Castleton make a surprise recovery and return, I'll ring the cowbell at anywhere near a pick'em.

Pick: Mississippi State (-5 or better)

(10) Arkansas vs. (7) Auburn
Second round, March 9, 3:30 p.m. EST

This game will be fun, as both squads look to play at a break-neck pace, and boast good offensive efficiency numbers. However, it's Arkansas whose defense has a better chance of holding up at 0.94 adjusted points per possession via ShotQuality.com.

The Razorbacks' season had been knocked off kilter with injuries, but NBA prospect Nick Smith Jr. is back and seems assimilated to the rotation. Three straight losses to close the season isn't ideal, but road games at Alabama and Tennessee are excusable defeats, and Saturday's loss to Kentucky was something of a statistical outlier based on ShotQuality, and some dubious officiating throughout the game.

Essentially, the Hogs do what Auburn does, only better. Auburn won the only meeting this season, which was in the friendly confines of Neville Arena, where the Tigers are 7-2 at home in-conference versus 3-6 on the road.

Pick: Arkansas (-2.5 or better)

Late-round matchup to target

(5) Tennessee vs. (4) Missouri
Quarterfinal, March 10, 3:30 p.m. EST

Like the Gators, the Volunteers have suffered a season-changing injury. Point guard Zakai Zeigler tore his ACL in the penultimate game of the regular season and a four-point change to their rating ensued. A win on Thursday over either South Carolina or Mississippi might suggest to the market that the Volunteers are OK for a game against Missouri. However, we've got our eye on the Tigers.

The best 3-point shooting team in the SEC, Missouri is better offensively than you think, and that might be good enough to keep it close against the Vols, who struggled to score even before they lost their offensive engine in Ziegler.

Pick: Missouri (+3.5 or better)

Best bet to win the tournament

On January 25th, Mississippi State went to Alabama and took a lead into halftime at Tuscaloosa. The Bulldogs ended up losing to the No. 2 team in the country by three points that night, but from then on, Mississippi State went 8-3 with those three defeats coming by a total of 10 points.

In a tournament setting, we know the Bulldogs' defense will show up each day, and with Alabama in their way to the semifinals, they'll need it. However, that line should be around five points, and if they can close out the upset this time around, you'll be surprised you have a ticket on an under-the-radar good team at 50-1 with a real chance to make the SEC Tournament final.

Pick: Mississippi State (+5000)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.