CBB betting: How to bet the Pac-12 Tournament

Since the conference's miracle run in the 2021 NCAA Tournament, it's been a pretty tough stretch for the Pac-12. After sending five teams to the Big Dance that season, it had just three representatives last year, and only has two sure bets this go-around.

The league's tournament in Las Vegas could either continue the two-year dominance of UCLA and Arizona, or allow for one of the bubble teams to push their way into the March Madness field with a big week.

Tournament odds

Each team has one of four categorical statuses. They are either: "Playing for 1-seed," "Securely in," "On the bubble," or "Need to win tournament" for an automatic bid to the NCAA tourney.

Early-round bet to make

(10) Stanford vs. (7) Utah
March 8, 9:00 p.m. ET

Stanford's stock has risen significantly after an 0-7 start to Pac-12 play, but its only Tier A (KenPom) wins on the season are a shocker over Arizona and a road win at Utah. Meanwhile, the Utes are 7-2 against the bottom half of the league, with their only home loss being that slip-up against the Cardinal.

So, how was that game an outlier? Stanford's 55.6% mark from deep was the worst Utah's stout perimeter defense has allowed all season, and its 43% free throw rate was the third-highest mark allowed by a Utes team that leads the conference in forcing teams off the foul line. Plus, Utah was missing sharpshooter Gabe Madsen - not only is that key against a Cardinal team that allows 42.5% of opponents' shots from beyond the arc in conference play, but the Utes are 15-7 when Madsen starts and finishes the game, versus 2-7 otherwise.

Madsen is back in the fold for the conference tournament and will be joined on the wing with elite defender Marco Anthony, who's forced Stanford star Harrison Ingram into just 6.7 points on 7-of-23 shooting in three career games against the Utes. If Stanford shoots above 50% from deep and lives at the foul line again, this bet goes out the window, but the odds of that outcome reoccurring are quite slim.

Pick: Utah (-4 or better)

Late-round matchup to target

(5) Washington State vs. (4) Oregon
Quarterfinal, March 9, 9:30 p.m. ET

The magic number for Washington State is nine - when the Cougars hit that threshold for 3-pointers, they're 12-4 with impressive wins over Arizona and USC. When they fail to reach that number, they're 4-11, with losses to Prairie View A&M and Hawaii. Oregon has only allowed three of its last 11 opponents to hit at least nine long balls, part of an improved defense that's allowed over 70 points in regulation just three times in 2023.

Oregon's offensive attack is built around big man N'Faly Dante, who paces the Ducks' conference-leading 54.4% mark from inside the arc. Meanwhile, the Cougars allow 57.4% of their opponents' points from 2-point range, the highest in the Pac-12, stocked with only one true big man in Mouhamed Gueye.

The Ducks' five leaders in minutes are all seniors, and the experienced group knows they need a deep tournament run to keep their March Madness hopes alive. A loss to this Cougars squad would kiss their chances goodbye. With a schematic advantage in a must-win contest, consider taking the Ducks with a short spread.

Pick: Oregon (-3 or better)

Best bet to win the tournament

Oregon head coach Dana Altman knows a thing or two about March rallies, and he has the chance to make another one with his aforementioned senior-laden Ducks squad. Should they get past Washington State, a UCLA team missing two-way rising star Jaylen Clark would await them in the semifinals. Clark's four steals were crucial in the Bruins' comeback win against Oregon last month, leaving the desperate Ducks with a real shot at taking down a team that has already secured a top-two seed in the NCAA Tournament.

That would set up a likely finals matchup against Arizona or USC, teams that Oregon beat by 19 and 18 respectively this season. The Wildcats and Trojans typically use their elite size to bully opponents down low, but Oregon actually measures as a taller team than both, per KenPom.

Super-senior point guard Will Richardson is 8-3 in postseason games, and Altman has won the conference tournament three times, falling in the finals twice more. With the league's fourth-best odds at +1100, don't go all-in on the Ducks, but a decent draw in a must-win week could be enough to get Oregon back to the NCAA Tournament after a one-year hiatus.

Pick: Oregon (+1100)

Matthew Winick is a Basketball News Editor for theScore. Find him on Twitter @matthewwinick.