Skip to content

3 teams poised to end March Madness droughts, and 3 streaks in danger

Michael Hickey / Getty Images

With a record seven different No. 1 teams, the 2019-20 season has been notable for its parity at the top.

As March draws closer, it might also become known as the campaign where a number of streaks came to an end.

If the NCAA Tournament started today, some of college basketball's most well-known programs and coaches - including defending national champion Virginia - would be on the outside looking in at the field of 68. Other schools not known for success in March have a chance to make historic postseason runs. Here's a look at the teams that could snap March cold streaks, and those who might experience their first Spring Breaks in ages.

Three teams poised to snap NCAA Tournament droughts

Colorado - 16-4, 5-2 Pac-12; projected 5-seed (via ESPN)

The Buffaloes made four NCAA Tournaments in Tad Boyle's first nine seasons as head coach but won just one game in those trips, back in 2012, and haven't made an appearance since 2016. In Year 10, Boyle has what feels like his best Colorado team.

The Buffaloes own one of the best wins of any program in the country, a two-point overtime victory over No. 7 Dayton in December. Colorado also beat Pac-12 favorite Oregon on Jan. 2. Guard McKinley Wright and forward Tyler Bey form one of the more underrated duos in the country. The team is strong defensively and has been the most efficient offensive club in the Pac-12.

While the Buffaloes are poised to make their first NCAA Tournament appearance in four years, they could also reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1969.

Penn State - 14-5, 4-4 Big Ten; projected 6-seed

Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

Perhaps Penn State is this season's poster child for having patience in a head coach. The 2019-20 campaign could mark the Nittany Lions' first NCAA Tournament appearance since Pat Chambers' tenure began in 2012.

Penn State last made the tournament in 2011, when it lost in the first round to Temple. The program hasn't won a tournament game since making a run to the Sweet 16 in 2001 and has just four tournament appearances in the last 54 years, so 2019-20 could be historic.

These Nittany Lions can be fun to watch, too. They play at the second-fastest tempo in the Big Ten, don't turn the ball over, and have six players averaging at least seven points per game. And in terms of durability, leading scorer Lamar Stevens has started every Penn State contest - 123 consecutive games - since he stepped on campus in 2016.

Rutgers - 15-5, 6-3 Big Ten; projected 7-seed

Of the teams in the top six conferences (Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, ACC, SEC, Pac-12), Rutgers is the only school that hasn't reached an NCAA Tournament in the 21st century. The Scarlet Knights' drought dates back to 1991. They haven't had a winning season since 2006.

But Rutgers is a doormat no more. Steve Pikiell's team enters Tuesday's slate tied for third in the Big Ten. The Scarlet Knights are balanced on offense and superb on defense.

The only concerning statistic as March approaches: Rutgers is 1-5 on the road and at neutral sites. The Scarlet Knights will need to get better away from the Rutgers Athletic Center - where they're undefeated - to win their first tournament game since 1983.

Three teams in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament

North Carolina - 10-10, 3-6 ACC

Streeter Lecka / Getty Images

The Tar Heels have won two in a row, including a victory at NC State - a bubble team - on Monday. So, perhaps North Carolina has life.

If UNC gets star freshman Cole Anthony back from injury, the team could still make a last-ditch run at the tournament. Anthony, who's been out since Dec. 8, was averaging 19.1 points and 6.3 rebounds per game for the Tar Heels. Without him, they're 4-7.

However, any run would represent an impressive turnaround, as North Carolina currently ranks 93rd in the NCAA's NET ratings. The Tar Heels haven't missed the tournament since 2010, when they struggled to replace a senior class led by Tyler Hansbrough. If UNC finishes below .500, it'll be for the first time since 2002.

Virginia - 13-6, 5-4 ACC

As of Tuesday, ESPN's projected bracket included Virginia among its "Next Four Out." The Cavaliers' hopes are very much alive, but the defending national champions find themselves in an unfamiliar position about halfway through the conference schedule, and their recent form isn't encouraging.

Virginia escaped Winston-Salem, North Carolina, with an overtime win over Wake Forest on Sunday. It was just the Cavaliers' second victory in their last six games, with neither triumph coming over an NCAA Tournament-caliber team.

In fact, Virginia is 0-3 against teams currently projected to make the field. The Cavaliers' defense is good as always, and it ranks second in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. But their offense ranks 257th nationally and dead last in the ACC.

Virginia hasn't missed the tournament since 2013.

Cincinnati - 12-7, 5-2 AAC

Michael Hickey / Getty Images

We're also not used to seeing the Bearcats in this position.

Cincinnati was the epitome of consistency under former head coach Mick Cronin. The Bearcats made nine consecutive NCAA Tournaments from 2011 to 2019, losing in the first or second round in all but one of those tourneys.

Cronin left for UCLA this offseason, with John Brannen replacing him after leading nearby Northern Kentucky to the postseason last year. But the team has taken a while to click.

Cincinnati has logged three losses to teams ranked outside of the top 100, falling to Bowling Green, Colgate, and Tulane. The Bearcats' best win came against Tennessee, a team also on the bubble. Senior Jarron Cumberland's shooting percentages have dipped this year while his turnovers have increased.

Still, the Bearcats will get opportunities to play their way into the tournament picture down the stretch. They play two games against both Houston and Wichita State, the top two teams in the American Athletic Conference by most metrics.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox