CBB weekend betting preview: Duke in prime spot after stunning loss
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Only one game this weekend features two teams ranked in the top 25, but don't mistake that for a lack of upset potential. Top-10 teams actually have a losing record since last Sunday and could encounter a few more land mines.
Here's a betting breakdown of this weekend's top matchups.
No. 11 Louisville at No. 3 Duke
The biggest matchup of the weekend is also a prime spot for the likely home favorites to get back on track.
Duke was stunned Tuesday in a road loss to unranked Clemson, which became the first team in the last 12 tries to beat North Carolina and Duke in consecutive games. It's the second shocking loss for the Blue Devils this season after falling to Stephen F. Austin earlier this year.
Since 2017, Coach K's group is 12-1 after a loss with a 9-4 record against the spread and an average scoring margin of plus-19.1 points in those 13 contests. Duke's rotation was in flux after recent injuries to Wendell Moore Jr. and Joey Baker - forcing its top players to play more minutes than usual - but fatigue shouldn't be a factor against a Louisville team coming off an overtime win at Pittsburgh.
That win marked also the fourth ATS loss in five games for the Cardinals, who could still be a tad undervalued after their hot start to the year. Twelve of their 23 field goals in that Pitt win came from beyond the arc, which could be a challenge against a Duke defense allowing the sixth-lowest percentage of opponents' shots from 3-point range.
The Blue Devils haven't lost consecutive games since February 2018, so expect a bounce-back performance against a familiar foe.
No. 6 Kansas at Texas
Defense continues to shine bright for the Jayhawks, who own the third-most efficient defense in the nation and haven't allowed a team to score 60 points since Dec. 10. The latest masterclass against Oklahoma - which shot just 33% from two and 27.6% from three - marked Kansas' sixth consecutive under despite a 3-3 ATS record in that span.
Shaka Smart's Texas team has a similar mindset, holding its last six opponents to under 65 points amid a 4-2 under run. The Longhorns' havoc scheme is particularly adept at taking away easy shots and forcing opponents to beat themselves - they rank eighth in forcing non-steal turnovers and 10th in fewest assists allowed.
The Jayhawks have been sloppy with the ball this year, which could play right into another road upset for a top-10 team. Either way, the under is likely the play here in a "first to 60" type of game.
No. 8 Oregon at Washington
Washington's strong start to the season hit a snag with four losses in the last six games. Only one of those losses came at home, though, and the Huskies' last four opponents failed to hit 60 points. All four games went under, an outcome that could again be in store against a struggling Ducks squad.
Oregon has floated in the AP top 10 for much of the year despite cracking KenPom's top 10 just once this season (and not since Dec. 21). The Ducks have dropped four of their last six games away from home, including an embarrassing loss at Washington State on Thursday that exposed some scoring issues in the frontcourt.
The Huskies are expected to return five-star forward Jaden McDaniels, who would make Oregon's offense even more one-dimensional. A backcourt-heavy attack isn't the best way to beat Mike Hopkins' zone defense. Don't be surprised to see Washington favored as an unranked team, and the value is there to play the home side.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.