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Who ya got? Previewing the NBA conference finals

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With a mesmerizing, unforgettable second round in the books and just four teams left standing, theScore NBA writers Joseph Casciaro and Joe Wolfond are back to tee up the Eastern and Western Conference finals.

No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 2 Toronto Raptors

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Prediction

Wolfond: Bucks in 6

The Raptors are riding the emotional high of escaping a knock-down, drag-out, heavyweight bout by the skin of Kawhi Leonard's Gatorade-tinted teeth.

Surviving both the 76ers and their own untimely jump-shooting yips was a monumental achievement for the franchise, but Toronto's about to face an altogether different challenge in Milwaukee. The Bucks are better than the Sixers, they had the league's best defense in both the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs, they have the most physically dominant player in the world in Giannis Antetokounmpo, and they have home-court advantage, opening the series in a building where they've gone 37-9 this year.

For the Raptors to have a prayer, they need a couple of significant trends from the Sixers series to change. First and foremost, they need their shooters to come back around. They were the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA after the All-Star break but hit just 29.8 percent of their tries from beyond the arc in the conference semis, which isn't going to cut it against a Bucks team whose defensive scheme is specifically geared toward making opponents beat them with jump shots. As much as Philadelphia's length and close-out speed contributed to that paltry percentage, the Raptors also shot just 31.9 percent on wide-open threes, and that's without mentioning the countless open looks the team's complementary players turned down when nerves and passivity got the best of them.

Second, they need to get more from their bench. They pared their rotation down to seven in the decider against Philly and got meaningful contributions from Serge Ibaka and Fred VanVleet in that game. For most of the series, though, playing even two bench guys at a time was a recipe for disaster, and that was against the Sixers' decidedly underwhelming transitional lineups. The Bucks' reserves - from George Hill to Pat Connaughton to Ersan Ilyasova - have been mopping the floor with their counterparts. They figure to be even less forgiving now that Malcolm Brogdon is back, which means either Brogdon or Nikola Mirotic will join the bench brigade against Toronto. The Bucks don't have quite as much backcourt size as the Sixers, which means VanVleet and Norman Powell could have a bit more success in this matchup. Given how readily Milwaukee concedes pick-and-pop jumpers, it's going to be doubly important for Ibaka to carry over his Game 7 performance to this series.

But even if those factors do return to status quo for Toronto, beating the Bucks is going to take some doing. Milwaukee has more depth, more shot-creators, more rim protection, and a larger stable of willing shooters. The Raptors are good enough to swing the upset, but their margin for error is comparatively tiny.

Casciaro: Bucks in 7

Between their record, their statistical profile, their two-way dominance, and the presence of an MVP front-runner, the Bucks have looked the part of championship juggernaut from the jump this season, so I'll give them the series with a potential Game 7 coming in Milwaukee.

Having said that, I think this series is going to be a lot closer than most people are giving the Raptors credit for. Toronto went 1-3 against Milwaukee but never got a crack at the Bucks with Gasol in the lineup. In Playoff Kawhi, the Raptors boast one of maybe two or three players on the planet who I believe can best Antetokounmpo in a seven-game series. Lastly, while shooters like Gasol, Kyle Lowry, and Danny Green will need to be more willing to let it fly in this series, as you mentioned, so much of their poor shooting against Philly came down to bricking wide-open shots. I'll bet on them making those looks against the Bucks due to my faith in the law of averages, if nothing else.

The post-deadline Raptors have the higher ceiling, but the Bucks still have the better team, and they've proven it over and over again, including in the playoffs so far. Milwaukee by a hair.

Series X-factor

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Wolfond: Toronto's zone defense

This is a wrinkle the Raptors used a bunch - and to great success - in the regular season, but have yet to turn to for any extended stretch in the playoffs. If they're struggling mightily to contain Giannis, I think it might be worth a look in this series.

Going zone against the Bucks makes a lot of sense. Everything they do offensively in the halfcourt stems from dribble penetration, whether that means shots at the rim or kickouts to 3-point shooters. In Giannis, Eric Bledsoe, and (to a lesser extent) Brogdon, they have a trio of ball-handlers who can blow holes in your defense at the point of attack. In Brook Lopez, Mirotic, and Ilyasova, they have a trio of floor-spacing bigs who open things up for Milwaukee's drives to the rim. Slowing down that drive-kick-swing machine necessitates keeping your bigs parked close to the rim, which means leaving your smalls to deal with the stretch-bigs on the perimeter.

The Raptors like to use Pascal Siakam at the top of the zone, which is a great option here because he has the length to at least mildly annoy Giannis and the speed to rotate, recover, and close out to shooters. Leonard, Lowry, and VanVleet are all excellent at digging down on drives, while Gasol and/or Ibaka can anchor the back line and provide a second wave of defense should Giannis bust through the front line.

It's still a risky approach, given the Bucks' volume-shooting prowess and crisp ball movement. They can drop Lopez from the perimeter to the middle of the floor and bust the zone with high-low feeds or hard cuts. It certainly won't be a panacea for the Raptors, but as a changeup to break out in a pinch? It could prove extremely useful.

Casciaro: Toronto's shooting

We both touched on this in our predictions, so it felt wrong not to cover it in our X-factors section.

Milwaukee's defensive priority is protecting the rim, and the team is going to concede a decent number of open jumpers. Toronto, meanwhile, has generated 27 more wide-open 3-point attempts than any other playoff team thus far, according to NBA.com. The problem for the Raptors, aside from the clean looks some of their shooters have refused to even attempt, is that they're shooting 32.6 percent on 3-pointers considered wide open or open during the postseason.

They converted those same looks at a 38.1 percent clip during the regular season and have too many good shooters for me to accept that things won't start regressing to the mean sooner rather than later.

In a series we've both conceded favors the Bucks as the better and deeper team, the Raptors will need to take advantage of their open looks to have a chance of advancing to the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history. It would also be intriguing to see how Mike Budenholzer and the Bucks adjust their defense, if at all, should Toronto punish them in a way Boston and Detroit couldn't.

No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers

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Prediction

Casciaro: Warriors in 6

The Trail Blazers might actually be better equipped to take advantage of the Warriors' lack of size than Houston was, but with Kevin Durant out of the lineup for at least the start of this series, Golden State will probably spend most of the time with a traditional big man - like Kevon Looney - on the court, anyway.

Without Durant, Portland boasts the second- and third-best players in the series in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, respectively, although it's the latter who's actually been the best Blazer so far this spring. Still, as the Warriors so enthusiastically reminded us down the stretch of Games 5 and 6 against the Rockets, the combination of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala still gives Golden State the best-fitting collection of talent on the planet.

I have Portland earning a split through the first four games before the Warriors put them away, with or without KD.

Wolfond: Warriors in 5

I agree with all of that, but I'll go even further. Although Durant's been officially ruled out for Game 1 and is looking doubtful for Game 2 at least, I can't see this series getting to 2-2, nor can I see the Warriors blowing another closeout Game 5 at home. I say this as someone who has the utmost respect and awe for what the Blazers have done this postseason, and less faith in Golden State than I've had at any point during their dynastic five-year run.

I just really dislike the matchup for the Blazers. Their frontcourt is getting thrown from the frying pan into the fire. They won't face the same sort of individual matchup challenge that Nikola Jokic posed, but they're going to be stretched to their breaking point by the Warriors' deadly pick-and-rolls. Blitzing the ball-handler worked OK for them against Denver, but I don't think the Warriors' shooters or secondary playmakers will be as forgiving. Enes Kanter might finally get played off the floor. A lot is going to fall on the shoulders of young Zach Collins. We may even see some of Al-Farouq Aminu at center. And I don't know how much these guys have left in the tank.

At the other end, Green is going to get slotted onto whichever non-shooter Portland is forced to play, and he'll be an even more disruptive rover than Paul Millsap was last round. There will be ample hiding places for Curry while Thompson and Iguodala take turns hounding Lillard and McCollum. The health of Rodney Hood suddenly looms very large, because the Blazers desperately need him to space the floor.

Another thing: I like the way the Warriors adapt and return to their roots when Durant is removed from the equation. They don't become better, per se, but they do change in ways (more pace, more 3-point attempts, more high pick-and-roll with Curry and Green) that make them more stressful to guard. Of course, it's nice to be able to dump the ball to Durant and have him go create a bucket out of thin air, but there's almost a pressure release for an opponent knowing Durant is just going to isolate and shoot over the top and either make or miss the shot irrespective of what the defender does. Without him, the Warriors are forced to be less predictable and to play with a bit more variance.

I don't mean to confuse aesthetics for success or to undersell Durant's impact. He's one of three players (the other two having been mentioned in the East finals preview) to have staked his claim as the best player in basketball this postseason. He's far more than just an isolation scorer, and he'll be missed as a playmaker, spot-up shooter, and defender. I just think the Warriors can still manage this matchup without him.

Series X-factor

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Casciaro: Durant's health, duh. (But not in the traditional sense.)

You hit the nail on the head with your parting words on Durant there. The presence of the two-time Finals MVP is still what puts this iteration of the Warriors over the top - the guy who transforms mere title favorites into a seemingly unbeatable outfit. In this matchup, however, against a Blazers team who can punish Golden State's smaller Hamptons Five lineup in a manner that Houston failed to, the Warriors probably like their chances with their pre-Durant core four, plus a big man.

The Blazers were a top-two offensive rebounding team during the regular season and are the best playoff team left standing in that regard. The Warriors' defensive rebound rate of 72.7 ranked 17th during the regular season, and that number has dropped to 69.8 percent during the playoffs.

With Durant on the court carrying smaller, spacier Warriors lineups, the Blazers might actually be able to make up for some of their obvious disadvantage in the talent department by generating multiple-shot possessions, thereby widening their margin for error.

Wolfond: The possession battle

I'm glad you mentioned offensive rebounding because I think that's a facet of the game the Blazers absolutely need to dominate if they're going to make this a series, and I believe they can do so. If Kanter's going to remain a net positive in this matchup, generating extra possessions is how he's going to do it. Aminu and Moe Harkless have also been huge in that department throughout the playoffs, crashing from the wing and slithering around would-be box outs for tip-ins or resets.

It's a dangerous game, to be sure. Crash the glass and whiff, and the Warriors will murder you in transition. But when you're at a talent deficit, you have to sell out to press the few advantages you have, and the Blazers should be willing to live with the risks.

That goes for the defensive end, as well. For as terrifying as they are offensively, the Warriors can get sloppy with the ball. Not having Durant as a late-clock failsafe could exacerbate that problem even further. But Portland's defense is extremely conservative, ranking dead last in opponent turnover percentage during the regular season and 12th in the playoffs.

A lot of the Warriors' mistakes tend to be of their own making and not necessarily borne of their opponent's defensive strategy, but the Blazers would do well to amp up their ball pressure and see if they can't force even more of those mistakes than usual. If they can decisively win both the offensive rebounding and turnover battles, they may just be able to pull off the impossible.

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