How DeMar DeRozan will limit and help the Spurs
Kawhi Leonard robbed the San Antonio Spurs of leverage when he asked for a trade, but the club still had a choice to make: remain relevant, or rebuild.
In trading Leonard to Toronto for 29-year-old All-Star DeMar DeRozan, the Spurs chose relevance, with Gregg Popovich's potential 2020 retirement likely factoring into the decision to pass on prospects in favor of remaining competitive.
The organization owes it to Popovich to maximize the little time he has left, and DeRozan was the best immediate contributor it could find. San Antonio didn't want a repeat of last season, when Leonard's extended absence nearly snapped the longest playoff streak in NBA history.
By adding a prolific volume scorer like DeRozan to a roster that already includes LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio virtually guarantees its floor as a playoff team in a loaded Western Conference. But DeRozan also happens to be a peculiar piece, who isn't a seamless fit with the Spurs' current roster, meaning San Antonio will likely be nothing more than just that - a playoff team.
The mess in the mid-range
The first issue for Popovich to solve will be the overlap in the midrange area, where the Spurs' three top scorers in DeRozan, Aldridge, and Rudy Gay are most comfortable.
Toronto dealt with this issue in 2013, when Gay and DeRozan formed an awkward partnership on mediocre Raptors teams. They took turns methodically jab-stepping at the free-throw line while the other stood around, the most egregious outing being Gay's ghastly 11-for-37 shooting performance that led him to ban stat sheets from the locker room. It was the final straw - Gay was traded two weeks later in a move that unlocked five straight playoff appearances.
To be fair, DeRozan and Gay have both grown in the five years since they were separated. Gay slid up a position and is now a full-time small-ball power forward, while DeRozan expanded his playmaking abilities to mesh with others. They should be far more adaptable under Popovich than they were with Dwane Casey in 2013.
However, both players fundamentally remain scorers that like to face up, drive, and shoot the mid-range jumper when defenses wall off the paint. Gay took 31 percent of his shots from the mid-range, compared to DeRozan's 43 percent. One of the two will inevitably be forced to shoot from outside, and both hit 31 percent from three last season.
DeRozan's shot chart:
Gay's shot chart:
Aldridge alleviates matters since he can space the floor as a pick-and-pop threat, but he also needs a steady stream of post touches or he gets disgruntled. He received 9.4 post-up possessions per game last season, which was good for tops in the league, and he would either bully his way to the middle of the paint for his right-handed hook shot or spin over his right shoulder away from pressure for the baseline jumper.
But with fewer shooters around him to spread the floor, chances are high that Aldridge will rely even more on the mid-range shot that already accounted for 44 percent of his field-goal attempts last season.
Aldridge's shot chart:
The Spurs will encounter plenty of zone defense next season, as teams dare them to attack from the outside. Pau Gasol and Manu Ginobili struggle to space the floor at their respective ages, Dejounte Murray can't shoot, and all of San Antonio's designated shooters are liabilities on defense. Popovich will have to be extremely clever in how he leverages his secondary tools to maximize their talents.
His best bet: Install DeRozan as the main playmaker, have Aldridge screen for him, and spam that pick-and-pop combination while spreading the floor with shooters - similar to how Tony Parker worked with Aldridge. Given how efficient Aldridge can be as a shooter, and how effective DeRozan is at driving downhill and either finishing or drawing contact, it should be a significant upgrade over last season, when San Antonio scored fewer points than all but three teams.
But it's inevitable - and unavoidable - that San Antonio will remain the league leader in mid-range shot attempts next season. And no matter how efficient DeRozan, Aldridge, and Gay may be on long twos, the Spurs will always be fighting an uphill battle by relying so heavily on basketball's least efficient shot.
Defensive struggles
Popovich will also be tested at the other end - the Spurs have lost three plus defenders and added an unwilling defender in DeRozan.
Toronto boasted the league's fifth-ranked defense last season in spite of DeRozan, a net negative on the defensive end in four of the last five campaigns. DeRozan was hidden on easier assignments, while Kyle Lowry guarded up a position or OG Anunoby slid down to cover. That patchwork solution created mismatches that were continually exploited in the playoffs.
In the rare instances when DeRozan was forced to guard, he showed a tendency to take lazy fouls to recover in transition or escape from a post mismatch against a bigger player. And even when he had an easier assignment, he remained a liability thanks to a propensity to zone out and lose focus as his man cut backdoor or popped open for a three.
One of the first pronouncements from new Raptors head coach Nick Nurse was to publicly challenge DeRozan for his lack of effort on one end of the floor. DeRozan took the criticism in stride but didn't get a chance to deliver.
Popovich demands accountability from his players, and after clearly being blindsided by the trade, DeRozan should be more motivated than ever to improve - not that he was lacking ambition. Most players stop improving by 29, but DeRozan is wired differently. He's a Kobe disciple who trained daily at 5:30 a.m. during the 2016 Rio Olympics and skipped New Year's Eve parties to study game tape. Popovich will love that attitude and push DeRozan harder than ever to become a better defender.
DeRozan needs to look no further than Aldridge, who also arrived in San Antonio with a reputation as a disinterested defender. Aldridge was unhappy at first, but eventually bought in and anchored last season's third-ranked defense. Given DeRozan's athletic gifts, there's no reason why he can't do the same. DeRozan has been effective in spurts - now he must sustain his effort over a full season.
But no matter how much DeRozan improves, losing Leonard and Danny Green to the Raptors and Kyle Anderson via restricted free agency will put a severe strain on the Spurs' ability to win games on defense. Jakob Poeltl is an intuitive defender and a quality backup center (so long as he avoids foul trouble) in the mold of Tiago Splitter. Still, that won't make up for the loss of two perennial All-Defensive wings and a stingy stopper in Anderson, whose positional versatility was quietly vital to San Antonio's schemes last season.
Addressing the bottom line
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
DeRozan isn't a perfect fit with the Spurs, but perfect was off the table once the Leonard situation grew toxic.
San Antonio made the best of a tricky situation with Leonard wanting out and Popovich nearing retirement. DeRozan, a top-25 talent despite his limitations, is a great acquisition given the circumstances. His style of play requires concessions, but he's talented enough as a scorer to make it worth the sacrifice. He should get the Spurs to the playoffs, and that should be celebrated as a success.
For all his gifts, DeRozan isn't Leonard, and he's stepping into a lineup with a supporting cast that was intended for someone better. Spurs fans will have to lower expectations. Leonard was an elite playoff performer, DeRozan is the opposite. That's why Toronto ditched him for a chance at wooing Kawhi.
There will be situations in which DeRozan may need minus defenders like Marco Belinelli or Patty Mills to space the floor to unlock driving lanes. In others, San Antonio may need to cover for DeRozan's assignment by playing non-shooters like Murray or Poeltl. DeRozan requires two-way teammates to bring out the best in him, and the Spurs simply lack the personnel. Unless DeRozan makes a major late-career leap or the Spurs upgrade their talent, San Antonio won't be elite, even with Popovich meticulously working the margins better than any other coach in the game.
DeRozan will raise the floor, and that's not insignificant. He is basically the Aldridge of shooting guards - not perfect but serviceable as a star. And with two of them on the same team each putting up 20-plus, San Antonio's playoff streak is sure to continue.
(Shot charts courtesy: NBA Stats)