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Is the Nuggets' 9-6 start fool's gold?

Matthew Stockman / Getty Images Sport / Getty

One month into the season, the Denver Nuggets hold a solid 9-6 record and the fifth seed in what was billed as a crowded Western Conference. While the overall level of competition out west hasn't quite lived up to preseason expectations, Nuggets fans still have some cause for optimism. After all, the local side hasn't boasted a winning season or playoff appearance since 2012-13. The franchise looks to be trending in the right direction.

With that said, the Nuggets shouldn't be looking ahead to May and June quite yet. Their start, while certainly better than a losing record, appears to be largely propped by circumstance and a home arena towering a mile above sea level.

To start with the obvious, the Pepsi Center affords its tenants a considerable home-court advantage. Visitors who scale Colorado's mountainous terrain to face the Nuggets are taken aback by the thinner, less oxygen-rich air. Or, as some have argued, the altitude's reputation is merely a placebo effect. Whether the home-court advantage is physiological or psychological, the Nuggets are currently 7-2 at home - and just 2-4 on the road.

But, it's not just the uneven distribution of home and away games to date that hint toward Denver's eventual regression. The quality of their wins and losses leave much to be desired.

The Nuggets' nine victories have come against teams (including the Brooklyn Nets twice) that entered Saturday with a combined 59-77 record; that .434 winning percentage would have been good for the 11th seed in the middling Eastern Conference last season. You'd expect a team built around a budding superstar in Nikola Jokic and a quality supporting cast to win more often than not against that level of competition.

Still, it's troubling the Nuggets have only beaten three teams who currently boast a .500 record or better - the Toronto Raptors (10-5), the Orlando Magic (8-7), and the New Orleans Pelicans (8-8). Friday night's 146-114 dismantling of the Pelicans was certainly a positive statement, but the other two .500-plus wins don't carry a ton of weight. The Raptors game (in Denver) was game five of the Dino's six-game road trip, and the Magic are still coming down from the improbable heights of their early-season 3-point shooting.

The Nuggets' losses have been even more worrisome. They've fallen to the Jazz, Wizards, Hornets, Knicks, Warriors, and Trail Blazers by an average differential of minus-12.4 points. Four of those squads made the playoffs last year, and the remaining two distinctly belong to the Eastern Conference's middle class.

Every team is still just a month into the season. A 17-point loss to the Hornets in October may prove to be early signs of a dramatic turnaround by Charlotte, rather than an ugly loss by the Nuggets. Similarly, an 8-point win over the scuffling Thunder, who are still searching for themselves after a dramatic and busy summer, may begin to carry more weight.

There's much to love about the Nuggets' current ensemble: Jokic is an absolute delight. Paul Millsap brings a steady hand, one that has actually been to the playoffs in recent history. Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Will Barton give coach Mike Malone a dozen interesting permutations to try in the backcourt. Denver should be able to score with the best of them.

So, this isn't a doomsday prophecy, just a reality check. It's going to take more time to really know whether the glitter in Denver truly is gold.

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